Huang Peizhao and Wang Yi, special correspondent of this newspaper in Egypt
According to foreign media reports, Haya, a senior member of Hamas's political bureau, confirmed on the 18th that the leader of the organization, Yahya · Sinwal, has died. The day earlier, the Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli General Directorate of National Security (ISNB) issued a joint statement saying that Sinwar had died in a military operation carried out by Israeli forces in the southern Gaza Strip on the 16th. The United Kingdom newspaper The Economist saw the matter as a turning point that could "change the trajectory of the Middle East." Does this offer hope for the release of the hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza, or will it be seen by Israel as a signal to "chase after victory" and intensify the conflict? International public opinion has been full of discussions and different views. Regarding the news of Israel's announcement of the killing of Sinwar, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said on the 18th that China believes that the top priority is to fully and effectively implement the relevant UN Security Council resolutions, immediately achieve a ceasefire and cease fighting in Gaza, effectively protect civilians, ensure humanitarian assistance, and avoid further escalation of conflict and confrontation.
The Israel military released video footage before Sinwar was killed on the 17th, showing the exterior of the building where he was at the time. (Visual China)
"Started the end of the prelude"?
According to a Reuters report on the 17th, after dental files, fingerprints and DNA tests finally confirmed Sinwar's death, the Israeli army said that in the area where he was killed, IDF and Simbet have carried out dozens of operations in the past year and in recent weeks, which have limited the scope of his activities in the process of being hunted, so that the Israeli army can finally kill him.
Unlike other armed forces leaders who were tracked and killed by Israel, the killing of Sinwar was not a pre-planned targeted attack, the report said. His body was allegedly found during an Israeli infantry raid on the Taylor Sultan area in southern Gaza on the 16th. According to Israeli media, Sinwar's last building was bombarded by multiple tank shells and a missile. In a video taken by a small drone released by the Israeli army, Sinwar, who was badly wounded in the hand, sits on a sofa with a headscarf over his face. He threw what appeared to be a stick at the drone.
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on the 17th that this is "not the end of the war in Gaza, but the beginning of the end." Israeli Foreign Minister Katz called Sinwar's death a "military and moral achievement" for Israel. The Wall Street Journal said on the 18th that no matter what happens next, the news of Sinwar's death is a catharsis for many Israelis and a heavy blow to Hamas.
According to a report by Agence France-Presse on the 18th, Naem, a senior member of the Hamas Politburo, said, "Hamas is a liberation movement that leads people in pursuit of freedom and dignity, and it will not be eliminated." In response, he cited several Hamas leaders who had been killed in the past, saying that every time something like this happened, "Hamas becomes stronger and more popular."
According to Qatar's Al Jazeera and other foreign media reports, United States President Biden told reporters on the 17th that he had "congratulated" Netanyahu and "now is the time to move on, moving in the direction of a ceasefire in Gaza." Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, France President Emmanuel Macron, Germany Foreign Minister Baerbock, and United Kingdom Defense Secretary Healy all mentioned in their statements that under Sinwar's leadership, Hamas carried out "terrorist attacks" on civilians in Israel last October.
According to the United States "Political News Network", as a critic of Israel's military operation, Macron believes that Sinwar's death is a turning point, which may provide Israel with an opportunity to end the military operation. Italy Prime Minister Meloni also said that "a new phase must now begin, it is time to release all the hostages, declare an immediate ceasefire and rebuild Gaza".
According to the United Kingdom's "Guardian", the Permanent Mission of Iran to the United Nations posted on social platforms on the 17th that when people see Sinwar "facing the enemy on the battlefield instead of hiding in a hiding place, the spirit of resistance will be strengthened." Iran's Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the 18th, strongly condemning Israel's crime of killing Sinwar and condemning United States for providing financial and military support to Israel as "Israel's complicity." Mustafa · Barghouti, chairman of the Palestinian National Initiative, told United States CNN that Sinwar would be seen as a hero because he fought for his people.
"Biden faces huge obstacles"
Sinwar is seen as a "hardline" within Hamas. The Wall Street Journal said on the 18th that some senior United States officials hinted that they believed that Sinwar's death brought an opportunity to release the hostages and achieve a ceasefire. Israel faces a rare opportunity to turn a military victory into a lasting diplomatic deal, according to United States NBC. Riddle, a former United States intelligence official, said it was a test of Netanyahu's capabilities. The New York Times said he had to make a trade-off between pushing for a hostage release deal and maintaining the priorities of allies in his administration. The latter wanted to continue the war.
According to Reuters, some analysts say that from Israel's perspective, now may be the time to strike Hamas harder rather than retreat. Catulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, a United States think tank, believes that "from a practical point of view, how to achieve and enforce a ceasefire in the context of the chaos of Hamas's command and control structure is indeed a challenge."
"Biden faces a huge obstacle to achieving peace in Gaza." Reuters published an article on the 17th that Biden is expected to use Sinwar's death to pressure Netanyahu to end the Gaza war, but Biden's presidency is only a few months away, and he may lack the leverage to make Israel's leaders compromise. Analysts believe Netanyahu may prefer to wait until the next president takes office to "try his luck" with Harris or Trump.
"We should take a deep breath here"
NBC quoted analysts as saying that in the past, killing leaders of armed groups in Gaza or elsewhere in the Middle East often gave Israel only a temporary advantage, not a permanent defeat for the other side, nor did it change the calculations of both sides of the conflict. "I think we should take a deep breath here." said Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Current and former intelligence officials United States said Hamas still has thousands of militants on the ground and that the group will focus on consolidating its military strength, NBC reported. The New York Times reports that Hamas is a disciplined organization that has endured the deaths of many of its former leaders, and its core beliefs remain the same regardless of who is in power. Dalasha, director of the Horizon Center, a political research institute based in the West Bank of Jordan, said, "You may find that Hamas's leadership is weakened, but more pragmatic, and they will make some tactical compromises, but not on strategic issues."
CNN quoted Levy, a columnist for Israel's Haaretz newspaper, as saying that "killing Sinwar did not kill the problem" and that Israelis will continue to face the same problem. According to Levy, the obstacle to peace is the "occupation, siege, apartheid" that is taking place on Palestinian land. ▲