原文作者：1912212.eth，Foresight
Reprint: Lawrence
The market correction in early October left some investors skeptical, fearing that October, which had historically been on the rise, might be "different" this time. As a result, history always seems to prove that "this time is the same".
BTC did not stop there after jumping to a peak of $66,000 in late September, but experienced a thrilling drawdown to the bottom of $59,000. But it is the ups and downs that give birth to a more turbulent rebound storm! Since October 11, the market situation has changed dramatically, with a sharp increase of 3.67% in a single day, announcing the return of the rally, and the price has returned to the high of $63,000, and then it has rushed to $66,500.
At the same time, Ethereum also broke free from the shackles, rushing from $2,300 to $2,650, a one-day increase of more than 6.52%, the largest one-day increase since August.
In the big market ignited by passion and hope, many sector targets such as SUI, SEI, APT, stablecoin plate ENA, AI plate ARKM, WLD, and memes have ushered in a sharp rise.
In terms of contract data, short orders suffered heavy losses. In 24 hours, the whole network liquidated $246 million, and the short order liquidated $210 million. BTC open interest data also surged above $37 billion.
The market altcoins are dancing wildly, and the bull market in the second half has really opened?
BTC spot ETFs saw large single-day net inflows
Since the beginning of October, there have been some net outflows, but they have broadly balanced with net inflows. Since October 8, there have been 3 consecutive days of net outflows, with a total net outflow of nearly 180 million.
On October 11, the data reversed, with Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows reaching $253.54 million in a single day, the highest single-day net inflows since October. After the large inflow of over-the-counter funds, the price of BTC also climbed sharply on the same day.
The confidence of over-the-counter funds is still relatively firm.
The Fed will continue to cut interest rates, and market expectations are stable
This week, the United States released two major inflation data for September, CPI and PPI. Both the headline and core CPI rose more than expected year-on-year and month-on-month, although the 2.4% year-on-year increase in CPI was still the lowest since February 2021. The PPI was unchanged from the previous month, indicating a further cooling in inflation.
Goldman Sachs' economist analysis pointed out that while the September CPI and PPI inflation data were mixed, the final reading was still close to expectations, suggesting that United States inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target, and the Fed is approaching its inflation target.
After the two major inflation data came down this week, traders were almost certain to bet on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its November and December meetings.
U.S. presidential election
Historically, the crypto market has tended to rise around the time of the United States presidential election results. On November 5, the results of the United States presidential election will be announced, and there are only 20 days left.
In addition, Bloomberg reports that even US presidential candidate Kamala Harris, who has not always had much close ties to the crypto market, is working hard for votes.
Harris on Monday presented a new program to provide loans to Black entrepreneurs and others who face barriers to financing. According to Harris' campaign platform for black male voters, the program will provide 1 million loans with up to $20,000 forgiven. Harris also pledged to support the cryptocurrency regulatory framework, providing more investment certainty to the 20% of Black Americans in United States who own or have owned digital assets.
The Trump family's DeFi lending project, World Liberty Financial, has also been making moves recently, bringing in a number of experienced executives and launching a public sale of WLFI tokens.
Data from Polymarket shows that as of now, Trump's win rate is significantly ahead of Harris.
At present, the market is more inclined to believe that Trump's election as president will be good for the crypto market, but given that the United States presidential candidates have released crypto-friendly remarks and opinions, no matter who comes to power, the negative impact is minimal.
During the bull market from 2016 to mid-2020, the Republican Trump was in power, and from 2020 to 2024, the Democratic Biden was in power. BTC-dominated crypto markets have seen strong bull runs in their respective governance cycles.
Judging by the historical performance of the market over the past two cycles, neither the Republican nor Democratic presidential candidates came to power and did not affect the upward trend of the crypto market.
After the election results are officially released, some funds that choose to wait and see may change their hesitant style and choose to bet boldly on the crypto market.
Future market trends
Coinbase analysts: The macro factors affecting crypto performance are shifting from monetary policy to United States election results
Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han said that despite Bitcoin's subdued price action this week, "market sentiment has largely remained unchanged, as evidenced by the fact that perpetual contract funding rates and open interest have remained stable over the past week." Coinbase analysts noted that the macro factors affecting crypto performance are shifting from monetary policy to United States election results, and market expectations for interest rate cuts remain broadly stable despite the recent rise in CPI and core PPI.
He also mentioned that China's fiscal policy briefing this Saturday could indirectly affect the cryptocurrency market, especially during a time period when many markets will be closed. The cryptocurrency market may be used to express a proxy view on the size and strength of any fiscal policy announcement.
Bitfinex: The real price of BTC for short-term holders is a key resistance
Bitfinex Alpha's latest analysis highlights that the real price of short-term holders (around $63,000) acts as a key resistance level. A break above this level could trigger further gains, while a failure could lead to a backtest of the $59,000 or even $55,000 support level.
Bitfinex Alpha believes that the market is still passive, and future moves will depend on whether Bitcoin can break through the actual price of short-term holders. Traders are advised to be wary of potential pullbacks while being prepared for a possible strong rally.