Today's A-shares are both surprising and frightening.
The surprise is that the market opened almost full, breaking the trillion yuan transaction in 20 minutes, and the full-day transaction was as high as 3.48 trillion yuan, and the market trading heat was unprecedentedly fierce;
Fortunately, the Shanghai Composite Index still closed up 4.59%, and the Growth Enterprise Market soared 17.25% out of the super deep V shape, with more than 2,000 stocks rising by more than 10% in the whole market, reflecting that shareholders' confidence in the future is still very sufficient.
Today, ETFs are undoubtedly the most beautiful in the market, with more than 70 ETFs all closing at 20CM, creating a large-cap ETF, a dual-innovation ETF, and a science and technology 50 ETF to enhance the daily limit.
The sharp rise and fall is a major feature of the bull market, and the market is so exaggerated and crazy all of a sudden, and the big pullback is also within the range of expectation and understanding.
It is said that this morning, shareholders because there were too many transactions of bank-securities transfers, resulting in an obvious jam in the powerful bank-securities system, but because of the big pullback in Hong Kong stocks and the opening of the A-share limit, a large number of funds that were not easy to get in place did not dare to sell for a while.
But that's okay, these funds are coming, and they will definitely not enter the theater to watch the show, and they will bring important support to the follow-up market baton. In particular, there are many of them are active and long-term institutional funds that need to find opportunities to get on the bus before.
When the manic period of closing your eyes and running around to pick up money is over, the next choice of how to get on the bus becomes more and more important.
01
The mad bull market is not over yet
As we have said before, in the past few waves of obvious bull market cycles in A-shares, the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index from the low point to the top has been at least nearly 2 times except for about 50% from 2019 to 2021, and the time span is basically more than 1 year. The typical feature is the wave of leveraged bulls from May 2014 to June 2015, during which the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.8 times and spanned 12 months.
Looking at the current market now, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2689.7 points to 3489.78 points today, an increase of less than 30%, and the Growth Enterprise Market rose from about 1528 points to 2550 points at the close, an increase of 67%.
Compared to previous bull markets, these magnitudes are not large, but the short-term rise is indeed too rapid to make people feel scared, that's all.
But don't ignore the factors that it has been overfalling for too long before, and now the Shanghai Composite Index has not recovered the high level in 2021, and the gem has soared so much that it is still more than 1,000 points away from the high level in 2021, and more than 40% of the upside.
There are many industry leaders in A-shares, which have fallen by 80% from a 21-year high, such as from 10 yuan to 2 yuan, and now even if the stock price has risen by 1 time, it has only returned to the position of 4 yuan.
If the logic of this industry has not been destroyed, and their normal market and demand are still there, then under the new cycle of super bull market, 4 yuan will never be its limit, even if it is less than 10 yuan, but it is really possible to rise from a low point back to 6-8 yuan, that is, to rise 2-3 times.
Of course, this range cannot be achieved overnight, and it will take time and space to gradually realize it in the future, and the premise is that this series of blockbuster policies have been implemented, and the economy can meet expectations or at least not lag behind.
It has now been determined that the policy to boost the stock market is unprecedented, and although the fundamentals will need more time and data to be verified, it will not prevent the stock market from going bullish first.
This logic can also be supported from the valuation level.
At present, there is still a certain gap between the PE/PB valuations of many industry leaders compared with the median of previous years.
For example, the share price of Moutai has risen by nearly 40% recently, but the latest PE is 26.9 times, just back to the normal range, and the share price of Haitian Flavor Industry at the peak of 2021 exceeded 210 yuan, and it is only 51.8 yuan after rising nearly 50%, just returning to the knee position (this does not mean that it is recommended, only for longitudinal comparison).
For example, the "Yamao" Tongce Medical, the "Eye Mao" Aier Ophthalmology, and the Aimeike of "Medical Meimao" can be consumed for various "ENT departments", and the extent of restoration is still a small proportion compared with the high stock price of the year.
There are also core leaders in large industries such as photovoltaics, energy, real estate, and Internet technology, all of which are in a similar situation.
In recent years, although the demand has been suppressed by economic factors, the performance has declined, but the consumer economy has ushered in a boost, and the pent-up demand in the past will also be released.
Today's market is a bit of a mad bull slowing down to a slow bull structure. But after this round of sharp rise, there is a high probability that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will still be bullish, but it is no longer the rocket launch of the past week, but the overall slow bull driven by the structural market, and then the volatility will become greater.
02
A more suitable way to get on the bus
In just a few days, the GEM has accumulated a 67% increase, and thousands of stocks have risen by more than 60%, which is indeed too exaggerated and unhealthy.
It can be expected that under the market of mad bull turning slow bull, the follow-up will inevitably usher in differentiation, and the difficulty of choosing individual stocks will become greater.
At this time, it is important to choose a rational investment strategy.
In recent days, various investment groups and circles of friends have been showing that stockholders are trying their best to get bank loans or borrow money, and even at the expense of online loans, they have to take all the money to speculate in stocks as much as possible.
After a large number of individual stocks have risen wildly, this kind of crazy leveraged gambler behavior is the most dangerous.
In fact, it is not necessary to be leveraged, and there are still a lot of opportunities in the future slow bull market.
For example, the previous article "Eliminate penny stocks first!" As I said, the A-share bull market is divided into several stages, and it is only in the second stage when funds begin to enter the market. The third stage, that is, "the market is looking for alternate themes, such as eliminating penny stocks, breaking net stocks, or switching between high and low to gradually return to heavyweight stocks and high-quality industry leaders" has not yet arrived.
Especially for heavyweight stocks and high-quality industry leaders, the relative increase is not large at present, and the certainty of follow-up gains is very high.
In particular, finance, energy, infrastructure, consumption, medical and pharmaceutical industries, etc., after the craziest speculation in the bull market begins to turn into a rational investment stage, they will gradually become the main undertaking of safe-haven funds after the surge.
What is another very important supporting factor for this part of the stock? -- Large-scale huddle funds have not yet begun to "do things".
During the past several bull markets of A-shares, group funds are the biggest driving force for the stock market to create gods, such as the above-mentioned industries, a large number of public and private equity funds have created a super white horse dozens of times in a few years.
The capital huddle of U.S. stocks is even more terrifying, creating a super myth that the market value of Tesla, Nvidia and others has increased by 100 times in a few years.
However, in the past three years, the group funds have collapsed on a large scale, and even the banks have suffered a collapse and plummeted. But the pattern of financial huddles, which is prevalent all over the world, will inevitably continue to emerge.
Now it is only the initial stage of the bull market with comprehensive long-term funds, and the real high-quality assets have not yet begun, and it will gradually usher in opportunities after this wave of highly elastic growth stocks and concept stocks rise.
Of course, because macroeconomic factors have different impacts on various industries, it is undoubtedly time-consuming and laborious to specifically tap potential targets at the individual stock level, and the accuracy rate is not high.
So in my opinion, for prudent investors, one of the most efficient investment tools to grasp this round of market opportunities is undoubtedly direct investment in index funds.
Because index funds have low cost, small error, high efficiency, risk diversification, peace of mind and effort, they are suitable for investors with little experience and new to the market, and also suitable for mature investors as allocation tools.
For example, if you are optimistic about A-share core assets, you can allocate it through the CSI 300 ETF Index (561930), which has the lowest fee rate and quarterly evaluation dividends. The CSI 300 Enhanced ETF (561990), which has the dual advantages of ETF + index, is also a powerful tool for one-click allocation of A-share core assets.
If you are optimistic about the offensive players of the 20CM Science and Technology Innovation Board, you can study the Double ETF (588300), the Large-Cap ETF (159991), and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF Enhancement (588450), with the help of ETFs to lower the investment threshold, diversify risks, and capture the overall opportunities of science and technology entrepreneurship.
A bull market is in sight, and the semiconductor equipment ETF (561980), battery ETF (561910), and cloud computing ETF (159890), which track the high-growth technology sector, are resilient.
If you do not have a securities account and cannot buy the on-exchange fund, you can consider subscribing to the ETF feeder fund over-the-counter. As long as there is no purchase limit, investors can buy feeder funds.
03
epilogue
One of the best ways to boost expectations is to boost the stock market.
The sharp rise in the stock market not only shows that investors have sufficient confidence in future expectations, but also forms a huge money-making effect, truly increases the growth of shareholders' family wealth, stimulates investment and consumption, and promotes a real economic active cycle. Therefore, the state has been very certain and firm in its policy attitude towards boosting the stock market.
Although in the short term, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks may be adjusted and fluctuated due to the sharp rise in technology, but there is still a lot of room for long-term upside, if investors are worried about the selection of individual stocks, it is recommended to pay attention to the CSI 300 ETF index (561930) or Shuangchuang ETF (588300) such index-based funds to improve efficiency and diversify risks. (End of full text)
Risk Warning:
The above views, opinions and ideas are based on current market conditions and are subject to change in the future. Past performance of the Index is not indicative of future performance and does not constitute a guarantee of investment income or any investment advice. Indices operate for a relatively short period of time and do not reflect all stages of market development. Funds are risky and should be invested with caution.