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Market Overview
The market waited for Friday's non-farm payrolls data, and the United States ISM services index hit a one-and-a-half-year high in September, pushing up the dollar and Treasury yields, and also causing the S&P and Nathan indexes to turn higher. However, the possibility of Israel's attack on Iran's oil industry worried the market, and U.S. stocks eventually fell after the shock, with the Dow closing down more than 180 points and the "fear index" VIX rising above 20 again. Nvidia rose more than 3%, and Tesla fell more than 3%. Auto stocks fell again. The yield on the two-year Treasury note rose by more than 7 basis points to break above 3.70%, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note also rose by 7 basis points to near 3.86%.
The rally of Chinese concept stocks was temporarily suspended, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index fell 3.8% intraday and closed down 2.4%. Nio and Xpeng fell 7%. The offshore yuan erased gains since last Tuesday.
The euro posted its longest losing streak in five months. The yen hit a six-week low. The pound fell 1%, its worst in half a year. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 at one point.
Oil prices surged 5% to hit a four-week high and rose for three consecutive days on concerns about supply disruptions caused by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. London copper fell more than 2%, losing $10,000.
During the Asian session, Hong Kong stocks rebounded, and the Hang Seng Index closed down 1.47% to end a six-day winning streak.
News
The sharp rise in A-shares and the relaxation of the property market, the "silver ten" of the property market is expected to become a "golden ten". Shenzhen: "Two days after the launch of the new policy, we sold 26 units in our project, almost three times as many as last weekend. Shanghai: Owners expect potential demand to be activated, and property viewers tend to be rational.
Oil prices rose by more than 5%, Israel wants to hit Iran's oil facilities? Biden: We're discussing. Israel attacked on multiple fronts, killing more than 1,000 people in Lebanon; Nasrallah's son-in-law was "targeted and killed"; Iran and Allah are fully investigated.
United States' September ISM services PMI hit its highest since February last year, with strong orders but sluggish employment. The number of first-time applicants in the United States rose slightly to 225,000 last week, a slight increase of 6,000 from the previous week, and the labor market continued to cool.
Warren Buffett plans to issue yen bonds for the second time this year, and the market speculates that he is increasing his bets on Japanese stocks.
Tesla's four new versions of the 4680 battery are scheduled to launch in 2026, including a Robotaxi exclusive.
The market closes
U.S. stocks: The Dow fell 0.44%, the S&P 500 fell 0.17%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.04%.
European stocks: The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.93%. Germany's DAX 30 index closed down 0.78%. France's CAC 40 index closed down 1.32%. United Kingdom's FTSE 100 index closed down 0.10%.
A-shares are closed.
Bond market: The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note of United States rose 6.30 basis points to 3.8439%. The two-year Treasury yield rose 6.19 basis points to 3.7033%.
Commodities: WTI crude oil futures for November delivery closed up $3.61, or 5.15%, at $73.71 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for December delivery closed up $3.72, or 5.03%, at $77.62 a barrel. COMEX gold futures rose 0.24% to $2,676.30 an ounce. COMEX silver futures rose 0.54% to $32.290 an ounce. COMEX copper futures fell 2.59% to $4.5440 a pound.
Highlights
Global blockbuster
The sharp rise in A-shares and the relaxation of the property market, the "silver ten" of the property market is expected to become a "golden ten". Shenzhen: "Two days after the launch of the new policy, we sold 26 units in our project, almost three times as many as last weekend. Shanghai: Owners expect potential demand to be activated, and property viewers tend to be rational.
Oil prices rose by more than 5%, Israel wants to hit Iran's oil facilities? Biden: We're discussing. Analysts believe that the oil market is not alert enough for an imminent major supply disruption. With Israel likely planning a retaliatory attack on Iran, which could target its oil infrastructure, the prospect could send shockwaves to bearish energy market participants. The ultimate impact on the global oil supply-demand balance and prices depends on how responsive Israel is, and whether it sees any actual damage to Iran's oil industry.
Israel attacked on multiple fronts, killing more than 1,000 people in Lebanon; Nasrallah's son-in-law was "targeted and killed"; Iran and Allah are fully investigated. Israel continued to carry out attacks in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria places, and announced the death of Hamas leader Rausi Mushtaha in the Gaza Strip· as well as two other senior members. Nasrallah's son-in-law was also killed by targeted attacks by Israel.
United States' September ISM services PMI hit its highest since February last year, with strong orders but sluggish employment. United States' ISM services index was 54.9 in September, with an expectation of 51.7 and a previous value of 51.5 in August. The new orders indicator jumped 6.4 points, its biggest monthly increase since the start of 2023. The cost payment index is the highest since January this year. The employment index fell to 48.1 and fell into contraction. The current United States services and manufacturing PMI data are in stark contrast, with the latter being significantly weaker and having contracted for six consecutive months.
The number of first-time applicants in the United States rose slightly to 225,000 last week, a slight increase of 6,000 from the previous week, and the labor market continued to cool.
Warren Buffett plans to issue yen bonds for the second time this year, and the market speculates that he is increasing his bets on Japanese stocks. According to the analysis, Warren Buffett's re-issuance of yen bonds may be raising funds for increasing his holdings in Japanese stocks, and Japanese stocks are expected to be boosted by the return of the "stock god". Earlier this year, Buffett's investments in Japan's five largest trading houses drove the Nikkei 225 to a record high. This time, Buffett's target may be financial and shipping stocks.
Tesla's four new versions of the 4680 battery are scheduled to launch in 2026, including a Robotaxi exclusive. According to the media, Tesla plans to mass-produce a new generation of 4680 batteries using dry electrode coating process in the second quarter of next year - dry cathode 4680D, and among the four dry cathode 4680D versions launched in 2026, Musk intends to reveal the battery dedicated to Robotaxi when he releases Robotaxi next week, and the other two are Tesla's first batteries with silicon carbon materials in the anode, one of which is used in a new generation of Roadster and other performance-oriented cars, The other is for the Cybertruck and a sedan.
Domestic macro
The six-game winning streak came to an abrupt end, is the rebound of Hong Kong stocks over? Zhang Yidong said that the shock of Hong Kong stocks is coming, which is precisely to verify the reversal logic, rather than a short-lived wave of rebound. Chen Guo also said that the volatility of Hong Kong stocks is normal, and there is no need to worry about the end of the bull market at this point in time.
The Hong Kong DAB proposes to "reduce stamp duty". The DAB issued a proposal to enhance Hong Kong's status as a centre for IPO listings and financing, proposing to reduce stamp duty on shares.
The Hong Kong stock market is "once in a century", and the post-00s "first wave of account opening", Hong Kong brokerages are busy and crazy, "no holidays or meals". As the market goes through a high tide, Hong Kong's stockbrokers are going through the busiest period of their careers. Many young investors, worried about missing out on this wave of the market, have opened accounts on online trading platforms. According to Hong Kong media reports, some brokerages and banks are overloaded with systems, making it difficult for customers to log in to mobile apps.
Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asian stock market funds returned to China, "no one wants to miss such an opportunity"! According to fund manager analysis, overseas investors are increasing their positions in China, and A-shares are expected to become the "winners" this year. "We are cutting our long positions in the rest of Asia to fund the purchase of Chinese equities." Foreign capital is an important incremental fund for the rise of Hong Kong stocks in this round, and it prefers optional consumption and information technology sectors.
Domestic companies
The "China Dragon" ETF landed on Wall Street on the occasion of the return of the bull market, benchmarking against the ETF of the Big Seven of U.S. stocks. A new ETF that tracks the performance of China's largest companies, DRAG "China Dragon", has landed on the US stock market, and its constituents currently include Tencent, Pinduoduo, Alibaba, Meituan, BYD, Xiaomi, JD.com, Baidu and NetEase. DRAG is designed to track an equally weighted basket of stocks consisting of 5 to 10 of the largest and most innovative Chinese technology companies. The ETF will be rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
The price of Feitian Moutai bulk bottles is 2,300 yuan per bottle.
Overseas macro
The governor of the Bank of United Kingdom unexpectedly "released doves", and the pound plunged 1% to a two-week low. United Kingdom Bank Governor Bailey said in an interview with The Guardian that if the inflation news continues to improve, then he will see an opportunity for more aggressive rate cuts. Market participants increased bets on the United Kingdom's central bank to cut interest rates. Money markets are now pricing in a 25bp rate cut by the Bank of United Kingdom in November, raising the probability of further rate cuts to 70% in December.
India unexpectedly eased export restrictions, and Asian benchmark rice prices plunged 11%, the biggest drop in 16 years. India's easing of rice export restrictions after the national elections unexpectedly increased global rice supply.
Overseas companies
Nvidia insiders have cashed out more than $1.8 billion in shares this year, and more reductions are on the way. Although the sale of 6 million shares of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has been completed, other insiders continue to sell, such as Nvidia director Mark Stevens, who has sold 1.6 million shares this year and disclosed plans to sell another 3 million shares.
Silicon Valley giants have shown their magic for AI electricity, Microsoft wants to restart abandoned nuclear power plants, and Google is also eyeing nuclear energy. Last month, Microsoft reached a 20-year agreement to buy nuclear power, restarting the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in United States, which had suffered a serious nuclear accident. Google's CEO said on Thursday that the company is considering additional investments in solar energy and other things, and evaluating technologies such as small modular nuclear reactors.
Just after the financing was completed, OpenAI got another $4 billion credit line, with a liquidity of more than $10 billion. OpenAI said it plans to use the funds to invest in research and products, expand infrastructure and attract talent. It comes after OpenAI closed its recent funding round on Wednesday at a valuation of $157 billion, raising $6.6 billion from a large number of investment firms and tech giants.
The U.S. regulator said that Eli Lilly is no longer in short supply of weight loss miracle drugs, and the "replacement" manufacturer Hims & Hers fell more than 10% intraday. According to the FDA, Eli Lilly's two tirpatide ingredient GLP-1 injections, Zepbound and Mounjaro, have been in short supply due to increased demand since 2022 and are now determined to have resolved the shortage. Industry groups say the FDA's designation is tantamount to stopping pharmacies from dispensing and dispensing generic versions of the two drugs.
Today's news preview
United States non-farm payrolls in September.
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