1. Analysis of the domestic PVC market
1. Overview of the domestic PVC market
This week (2024.09.12-2024.09.19) the spot market price in the week is comprehensively compared with the downward trend, and the overall market trend shows a trend of first falling sharply and then rising, but the corresponding decline is greater than the increase, so the valuation is mainly lower than the decline. Influencing factors during the week: 1, 2501 contract still maintain a million positions, the Mid-Autumn Festival before the disk can still be sideways, but the first day after the holiday price fell sharply, the downward short trend of increasing positions is unusually obvious, the lowest point of the futures price of 5159 is much lower than the previous period, the disk once showed an obvious bearish trend, but Thursday the market reversed, bottomed out after 2 times below the lower rail, and the rebound strength is acceptable. 2. From the perspective of supply and demand, the operating load of PVC devices has increased steadily, compared with the operating rate of last week, but the demand side has shown weak performance. 3. The price of calcium carbide at the cost port rose by 50-75 yuan/ton, and the price of crude oil also rose slightly during the week. 4. In the early morning of Thursday (September 19), Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 5.25% to 5.5% to 4.75% to 5%. The last time the Fed cut interest rates was in March 2020, four and a half years after the cuts. 5. Domestic commodities reacted on Thursday afternoon, most commodities recorded a rise and turned red, PVC also showed a certain degree of rise, and the cultural index rose as a whole. On the whole, the prices of futures and spot markets fell first and then rose during the week. From the perspective of valuation comparison, North China fell by 115 yuan/ton, East China fell by 90 yuan/ton, South China fell by 55 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 25 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 30 yuan/ton, and Southwest China fell by 75 yuan/ton.
Futures: During the week PVC2501 contract futures prices were mainly sideways before the holiday, and fell sharply on Wednesday after the holiday. The change in the volume of positions during the week, including an increase of 19,001 lots on Friday and 53,896 lots on Wednesday. Thursday session price night price narrow low finishing, the morning began to weaken slightly in the later price downward, the lowest point of 5164 bottomed out and rebounded a significant upward trend, late afternoon prices further higher. As of the close PVC2501 the contract held 1008257 lots at the closing price of 5289.
2. Market analysis of domestic mainstream consumption areas
North China: The price of PVC in Hebei fell first and then rose, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the spot transaction was mediocre. As of Thursday, the 5-type material tax-included Inner Mongolia factory reported 4850-4930 yuan/ton, and the mainstream intention transaction price was 5060-5130 yuan/ton, including tax. Northern Basis Offer 01 Contract - (200-250-300).
East China: The market price of PVC in Changzhou continues to adjust, and the basis offer of the futures price falls first and then rises also follows a slight adjustment, but the downstream enthusiasm for taking goods is low. As of Thursday, the 5-type calcium carbide material is now worth 5040-5220 yuan/ton (excluding loading). East China Basis Offer 01 Contract - (100-160-200).
South China: The price of PVC in Guangzhou fell first and then rose, the spot market point price and the fixed price coexisted, and the downstream just need to purchase the mainstay, but most of them tend to be low-point prices. As of Thursday, the mainstream transaction reference of ordinary type 5 calcium carbide spot self-pickup is 5100-5250 yuan/ton. South China Basis Offer 01 Contract - (0-50 or +40). Traders, traders, ethylene law offers, Huayi 1000 type sent to 5400 yuan/ton, Yantai Wanhua 1000 type sent to 5450 yuan/ton, Dagu 1000 type self-delivery reported 5350 yuan/ton.
The pre-sale quotation of PVC September shipping schedule in Taiwan fell sharply from the previous month, CIF India lowered by $110/mt, CFR China main port increased by $50/mt, CIF Southeast Asia fell by $70/mt, and other regions fell by $70/mt.
China's Taiwan Formosa Plastics September Shipment Quotation: (USD/Ton)
3. Comparison of PVC futures and spot basis
4. Daily report of PVC warehouse receipts
5. Forecast for the future
Futures: The PVC2501 contract price showed an obvious bottoming rebound trend on Thursday, and the price of the disk position reduction futures rose, and the rebound strength compared with the low point was acceptable in the recent market. And in the rebound market, there is a rare long open, which has changed the situation of short opening suppression, and in terms of transactions, it is 22.9% more than 22.3% short open. At the close of trading at midday, the main domestic futures contracts rose more and fell less. Glass rose by more than 4%, apples and palm oil rose by more than 3%, soda ash, container transportation European line, manganese silicon, coking coal rose by more than 2%, and iron ore, Shanghai nickel, international copper and rubber rose by more than 1%. The cultural goods index also showed a clear upward trend in the afternoon. On the whole, the operation of the short-term futures price may observe the performance of the range of 5250-5360 after the rise.
Spot: Most commodities turned red in the afternoon, the cultural index rose, the domestic commodity sentiment improved, and the downturn in the early stage also eased slightly. In the afternoon, the upward trend of commodities is more inclined to the feedback of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, coupled with the strength of the rise, which makes some short orders take profits, and two-way stimulus commodities show a good rally in the afternoon. There are no obvious changes and guiding factors in the fundamentals of PVC, and the supply and demand sides are stable, but the rise in prices in the two markets today still relaxes the nervous mentality. As expected, the Federal Reserve started an easing cycle, cutting interest rates for the first time in four years, and what is even more exciting for the market is that the Fed began with an unusually large interest rate cut of 50 basis points, and further emphasized the employment target in the dual goals in the decision statement, reflecting the determination to curb the sharp slowdown in the labor market. In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil futures market prices fell, and the Fed's sharp 50 basis point interest rate cut failed to boost oil prices, but only exacerbated concerns about a slowdown in the United States. At the same time, the official United States oil inventory data sent mixed signals and failed to support the oil market. Overall, while the spot market has rebounded to the upside, we believe more positive stimulus is needed for further gains.
6. Domestic PVC index
According to Tu Duoduo data, the domestic calcium carbide PVC spot index on September 19 was 5168.38, down 74.74 from the same period last week, with an increase of 1.425%. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5439.93, down 83.44 from the same period last week, an increase of 1.511%, the calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene method-calcium carbide index spread was 271.55.
7. This week's PVC (powder) market price
Unit: yuan/ton
8. List of equipment of production enterprises this week
Second, the key analysis of related chlor-alkali products
1. Calcium carbide
2. Crude oil
As of September 18, the WTI price was $70.91 / barrel, up $3.60 from the same period last week; Brent price was $73.65 / barrel, up $3.04 from the same period last week, Oman (period) price was 73.46 yuan / barrel, up $2.61 from the same period last week, and Shanghai crude oil was 517.90 yuan / barrel, up 19.5 yuan / barrel from the same period last week.
3. Statistics on the operating rate of PVC plants this week
This week (2024.09.12-2024.09.19), the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 77.24%, up % month-on-month; Among them, the calcium carbide method was 77.47%, up 2.77% month-on-month, and the ethylene method was 76.61%, up 4.10% month-on-month.
Fourth, the international market price analysis
1. This week's international VCM market price
International VCM: September 12: CFR Far East Stable, CFR Southeast Asia Stable, FOB Northwest Europe Stable, FAS Houston Stable.
2. This week's international PVC market price
International PVC: September 18: CFR Far East stable, CFR Southeast Asia stable, CFR India stable, FD Northwest Europe (futures) stable, FOB Northwest Europe up 20, FAS Houston stable, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, France, Spain up 15, United Kingdom down 25.
3. List of monomer prices this week
4. List of ethylene prices this week
5. Position list (September 19)
Source | Tu Duoduo Industrial Big Data Department
Teacher Pei 18519110691