PVC Futures Analysis
On September 20, the opening price of V2501 contract: 5290, the highest price: 5292, the lowest price: 5215, the open interest: 1026625, the settlement price: 5246, yesterday's settlement: 5226, up 20, the daily volume: 949009 lots, the precipitation funds: 3.758 billion, and the capital inflow: 24.89 million.
A comprehensive list of prices by region
RMB/ton
PVC spot market
The mainstream transaction prices of the domestic PVC market weakened slightly, especially the high-end prices. Valuation comparison: North China fell 20 yuan/ton, East China fell 50 yuan/ton at the low end, South China fell 50 yuan / ton at the high end, Northeast China fell 50 yuan / ton, Central China fell 40 yuan / ton, and Southwest China was stable. Upstream PVC manufacturers stabilized prices and waited and watched, coinciding with Friday, most companies did not see obvious adjustments, but there were not many first-generation contracts, mainly based on basic quantity. The futures price has weakened, and the quotations of traders in various regions have declined slightly, especially the low price acceptance at the high point, the point price and the fixed price coexist, and the fixed price inquiry is not much, and the transaction tends to be a low-level price pending order. Among them, the basis offer 01 contract in East China - (50-100-150), 01 contract in South China - (0-50 or +30), 01 contract in North China - (330-350), and 01 contract in Southwest China - (500). On the whole, the actual order part of the spot market was negotiated slightly, and there was no price advantage in the basis offer. The enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high.
From a futures perspective
PVC2501 contract night futures price opened high and low, although the PVC rose significantly on Thursday, but the night market showed a downward trend. The price weakened further in the early session, then consolidated in a narrow range at the low, and also fluctuated in a small range in the afternoon. The 2501 contract fluctuated in the range of 5215-5292 throughout the day, with a spread of 77, the 01 contract increased its position by 18368 lots, with a position of 1026625 lots so far, and the 2505 contract closed at 5452 with a position of 154628 lots.
PVC market outlook
Futures: PVC2501 the operation of the contract price first narrowed the range of fluctuations, the overall performance in the week is not as good as the previous two days on Wednesday and Thursday that version of the wide range of operation, and a small increase in positions high open low, the disk still shows a certain bearish trend, the transaction point of view of which more than 24.0% compared to the short open 26.0%, the technical level shows that the Bollinger band (13, 13, 2) three-track opening narrowed, and the usual experience of the narrowing of the market is basically the beginning of the new market, but the current low operation of the situation, The overall upward strength has weakened, the KD line of the daily line crosses the two lines, and the MACD line continues to show a dead fork trend. In the short term, we believe that the operation of the futures price may still test the performance of the low range of 5170-5230.
Spot: Judging from the current commodity sentiment, after yesterday's sharp increase, today's commodities have entered a sideways stage, and the overall cultural commodity index runs between the middle and upper tracks, and secondly, commodities have a certain differentiation performance. In terms of PVC, there is a weakening trend in the long-term air distribution environment, on the one hand, due to the attributes of the air match, and on the other hand, the PVC fundamental support is insufficient. Import and export data were released, with imports of 2.06 tons and exports of 201,800 tons in August. Exports increased month-on-month, which formed a certain supplement to the weak domestic demand. On the external side, the international crude oil futures market rose as the market digested the impact of the Federal Reserve's sharp 50 basis point interest rate cut, and the Israel attack on the Lebanon Allah party's targets exacerbated geopolitical risks. On the whole, the price of PVC spot market will still be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term, but it will face certain bearish pressure after the National Day in the middle line.
PVC spread arbitrage analysis
Domestic PVC index
According to Tu Duoduo data, on September 20, the domestic calcium carbide PVC spot index was 5163.71, down 4.67, or 0.090%. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5446.48, up 6.55, or 0.120%, the calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene method-calcium carbide index spread was 282.77.
PVC warehouse receipt daily report
PVC long and short positions are on the list
The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only
Source | Tu Duoduo Industrial Big Data Department
Teacher Pei 18519110691