The Philippine side has just withdrawn its ship from Xianbin Reef and is about to make a comeback, why are the Marcos authorities so obsessed with Xianbin Reef? Why did the Philippine side take the initiative to withdraw the ship this time? In the direction of the South China Sea, which two routes does China want to defend?
On the 14th, the Philippine Coast Guard patrol ship No. 9701 had just withdrawn from the waters of our Senbin Reef, and then Philippine National Maritime Commission spokesman Lopez said that the Philippines would send another ship to take over and continue to be stationed there. This statement by the Philippine side can be said to have directly reversed the situation at Sembin Reef, which was expected to improve.
The vessel Fei 9701 has been illegally stranded in the Xianbin Jiao Lagoon since April 17, and it has been nearly five months since its departure. During this period, whether the Chinese side issued an "ultimatum" to the Philippine side, urging it to take the initiative to evacuate the ship, or imposed a complete blockade on Xianbin Reef, the Philippine side had the same intention and would not leave here. So why is the Philippines suddenly willing to withdraw? One of the most important reasons is that the 9701 ship has really reached the point of "running out of water and food", and if it does not take the initiative to withdraw, it can only wait to starve to death. Although the Philippine side rammed the Chinese coast guard ship at least three times in August in order to resupply the 9701 ship, the result was without exception, and each time it did not succeed. At the end of August, the Philippine side used the airdrop to supply a small amount of food to the crew members of the ship, which only solved the urgent need, and the fuel and other materials needed by the Philippine ship could not be replenished.
So we saw that after the 9701 ship arrived at the Philippine port, many of the crew members on board were carried off on stretchers with hanging bottles, and were directly towed away by ambulances after disembarking. It can be seen that there are indeed no supplies on the ship, so it has to be evacuated urgently. Of course, the Philippine ship was evacuated, and the Philippine side also had to save face, insisting that the ship had returned to port only after completing its mission, and that it was only "temporarily withdrawn". Thinking of Lopez's remark that other ships will be sent to stay at Xianbin Reef illegally, it is foreseeable that the Philippine side will continue to provoke trouble in the direction of Xianbin Reef in the future. So why does the Philippine side refuse to give up its illusions about Xianbin Jiao?
In the final analysis, it is the Philippine side that wants to maintain its presence at Xianbin Reef in order to occupy Xianbin Reef for a long time, and then use it as a forward position to launch a provocation from Xianbin Reef to Ren'ai Reef, after all, there are only less than 70 kilometers between the two islands and reefs. Therefore, China must continue to be highly vigilant to prevent the Philippines from making a comeback at Xianbin Reef, and in addition, to prevent United States and the Philippines from making small moves on Mischief Reef. A few days ago, the United States Air Force Special Command organized a competition at al-Qaeda in Hurbert, Florida, and one of the propaganda pictures exposed that the US military was likely to be practicing sending troops to Mischief Reef. In the promotional image, U.S. military personnel operate drones to carry out simulated strikes on targets, and the location corresponds to Mischief Reef in the South China Sea. Is this just a coincidence? Apparently not.
After years of construction, Mischief Reef has become an "unsinkable aircraft carrier", where PLA warships and China Coast Guard ships are berthed, and if anything happens in the South China Sea, China can quickly rush to support it. The fact that the U.S. military has now designated it as a hypothetical area for the exercise indicates that Mischief Reef has been included in the area of possible combat by the U.S. military. In the event of a conflict in the South China Sea, the U.S. military may take the lead in striking Mischief Reef to thwart China's support. Therefore, we must remain vigilant to prevent United States and the Philippines from colluding and provoking disputes at Mischief and Senbin Reefs. In particular, if the Philippines, as a party to the South China Sea issue, insists on "luring the wolf into the house" and provoking disputes in the South China Sea, then the next step of conflict intensity may not be as simple as a few boat bumps, and the Philippines must be prepared to pay the price for its actions.