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△Typhoon "Bebinca" track probability forecast (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
People's Voice of the World, September 15, Beijing Express In the blink of an eye, the traditional 24 solar terms of "white dew" have arrived. On the national weather stage this week (September 9-September 15), in the opinion of experts, the subtropical high remains strong; But. The cold air is also active; During this period, some cold air can penetrate southward from low altitudes. Therefore, although the high temperature in the south is still there, it will be reduced from last week. On the northern edge and interior of the subtropical high, it rains a lot because of the convergence of cold and warm. Rain and cold air will also bring cooling; As a result, the temperature in the north will fluctuate a lot.
△Positioning of Typhoon "Bebinca" (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Experts said that according to the analysis of the latest meteorological data, the track forecast of Typhoon No. 13 "Bebinca" this year (2024) tonight (15th) has been slightly slower than before; Therefore, it may have to land in Shanghai on the morning of next Monday (16th). From the satellite image, the high-altitude cirrus clouds are clearly divergent, which is conducive to strengthening. But at medium and high altitudes, there should be dry air, which is not conducive to development. The eye zone, which was built as early as noon, is gone again in the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the current fixed strength is still 40 m/s, and it has not been upgraded to a strong typhoon. In addition, tonight's Japan Meteorological Agency reported the upgrade of the low pressure near Guam as Typhoon No. 14 "Prasan".
△Typhoon Prasan Track Probability Forecast (Japan Meteorological Agency/Fa)
According to experts, the path of the future "Prassan" is highly similar to that of "Bebinca"; However, when approaching the eastern part of the mainland, the circulation situation was greatly adjusted from the 19th to the 20th. At that time, there will be strong cold air at low altitude moving southward, causing the subtropical high to break off on the north side of the typhoon, making the guiding airflow unclear when "Prasang" approaches the east coast of China. At present, the EC numerical model of the European Meteorological Center has even reported a stagnation near the mouth of the Yangtze River; After this, it is suppressed to the south by cold air; After that, it went north to Japan. During the "Plansan" event, there may be typhoons from the Philippines to the South China Sea.
△ Situation field numerical model forecast (United States Meteorological Agency GFS/Fa)
It is worth noting that industry insiders stressed that it is not difficult to find that the situation is also not difficult to find, as experts say, the typhoon in the South China Sea tends to Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula in the later stage. In addition, on the east side of "Plansang", there may also be typhoons. Therefore, typhoons are expected to be very active in the next 10 days; In addition, the overall circulation situation is conducive to the typhoon approaching the mainland. It may be that before the "National Day", it is a state of endless typhoon after typhoon. (Editor-in-charge/Xiangyu)
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