Abstract: It is expected that this year's No. 13 typhoon "Bebinca" will make landfall in the area from Pudong, Shanghai to Zhoushan, Zhejiang from the early morning to the morning of September 16, with a landfall intensity of typhoon or strong typhoon (12~14), and cause obvious wind and rain impact to the area from the night of September 15 to the day of September 16.
1. Typhoon facts
This year's No. 13 typhoon "Bebinca" (typhoon level) was about 465 kilometers south-east of Shanghai Pudong Huizui at 11 o'clock today, that is, 29.8 degrees north latitude and 126.7 degrees east longitude, with a maximum wind force of 13 (38 m/s) near the center and a minimum pressure of 965 hPa near the center.
2. Forecast research and judgment
Dominant forecast: Bebinca is expected to move north-westwards at 20-25 km/h with increasing intensity, reaching a strong typhoon (42 m/s, 14). "Bebinca" will make landfall in the area from Pudong, Shanghai to Zhoushan, Zhejiang from the early morning to the morning of September 16, with a landfall intensity of a typhoon or strong typhoon (12~14), and the intensity will gradually weaken after landfall.
Rainfall forecast: From the night of September 15th to the day of the 16th, there are heavy rains to heavy rains in the area, the process rainfall is 60~90 mm, locally up to 120~180 mm, the maximum hourly rain intensity is 50~80 mm, the main heavy precipitation period is from the early morning to noon of the 16th, and the rain weakens after midnight.
Gale forecast: The wind in the area will gradually increase from noon on September 15, and it is expected to last until the evening of September 16, during which the maximum gust is 10~12, 30-60 meters above sea and 12~13 on the surface of rivers and lakes.
Daily weather forecast for September 15-17
3. Pay attention to suggestions
1. Dianshan Lake and other water operations and passing ships should return to the port to avoid the wind, strengthen the port facilities, and prevent ships from anchoring, running aground and colliding.
2. The local short-term heavy precipitation on September 15-16 may cause water accumulation in the road sections prone to water accumulation, so the flood control department should prepare for flood prevention and drainage in advance. Significant precipitation has an adverse impact on traffic and urban operation, so the transportation department is requested to take precautionary measures in advance.
3. Please pay attention to prevent strong winds on land and Dianshan Lake, strengthen or dismantle buildings that are easy to be blown by the wind in time, do a good job of windproof reinforcement of greening trees, etc., and properly place outdoor items that are easily affected by strong winds.
Figures:
Fig.1 Probabilistic forecast of the track of Typhoon No. 13 "Bebinca" in 2024
Source: Qingpu District Meteorological Observatory
Editor: Shen Yiqing
Editor in charge: Sun Chen (chief)
Final review: Zhao Lan
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