This September, it was really a typhoon nest!
The strongest autumn typhoon "Capricorn" some time ago, although it has long been far away from the mainland, still brings destructive weather in South Asia.
The current strong landfall of "Capricorn" in India has caused severe flooding in India, which is not expected to dissipate until late September.
Looking at the autumn typhoon "Bebinca" that is about to make landfall on the mainland, judging from its current path, it is expected to make a strong landfall in Shanghai on the mainland from the evening of September 15 to the morning of September 16 with winds of 12 to 14 and heavy rain.
In addition, according to the forecast, the area of Ningbo, Zhejiang and Jiangsu may also be the key areas for the landing of "Bebinca".
Therefore, I would like to remind friends living in these places that it is the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, and if you need to travel, you must pay attention to safety, and at the same time you must make a small amount of emergency material reserves, but you don't have to over-hoard and over-prevent Taiwan, because "Bebinca" is far less powerful than "Capricorn" and will not cause serious disasters like "Capricorn".
1. A storm is coming
Because "Bebinca" has been affected by vertical wind shear, its typhoon eyewall has been repeatedly built and collapsed, and the typhoon structure has been very poor, which is also destined to become a super typhoon, and after landfall, the power is similar to that of a severe tropical storm.
In addition, under the influence of the dry and cold air of the cold vortex, this time "Bebinca" is approaching the coastal areas of the mainland, although it has not yet landed, but it has met with the southwest monsoon in Guangdong and Fujian, and the dry and cold air meets the hot and humid air, which will inevitably produce strong convective weather, so "Bebinca" is expected to bring no less than 13 strong winds when it landfalls, it will inevitably bring a heavy rainstorm.
Here, I also remind friends in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai that we must be careful of heavy rainstorms.
Judging from the typhoons that have affected Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai in the past, the situation of "Bebinca" this time is very similar to that of Typhoon "Beer" that landed in Xiangshan County, Ningbo in 1988.
At that time, after "Bill" made landfall, there were 13-level gales in many places in Zhejiang on the mainland, and the trees by the West Lake in Hangzhou were blown down by "Bill" at that time.
Although the mainland's typhoon prevention capability is much stronger than more than 30 years ago, especially this time "Bebinca" has a high probability of landing in Shanghai, both infrastructure and disaster resistance are very strong, but if it really encounters a storm of more than 13 years, especially a short-sighted heavy rainstorm, or even the appearance of a local tornado, this still needs to be more vigilant.
Again, because it is the Mid-Autumn Festival, there will inevitably be many friends who make travel plans, so when a typhoon hits, you must not take chances, and do not rush to the dangerous areas that are prone to natural disasters.
In addition, the southeast coastal areas of the mainland, in addition to Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, as well as Fujian and Guangdong, will continue to prevent typhoons before the end of September, because in the western Pacific Ocean, there are two more typhoons brewing, and the target is also the mainland coast.
2. Twin typhoons dance together
According to the experience of previous years, whether it is a super typhoon or not, autumn typhoons, especially autumn typhoons in September, are much stronger than summer typhoons, this is because they are affected by the subtropical high pressure, especially in recent years, the greenhouse effect has led to frequent abnormal weather, so don't look at it is autumn, but the sea temperature is generally still very high, and for the formation of typhoons, the higher the sea temperature, the greater the typhoon intensity.
Moreover, after the "Bebinca" landfall in the Mid-Autumn Festival, according to the prediction of the supercomputer, there are two more typhoons brewing on the sea surface of the western Pacific, and a situation of two typhoons has been formed.
These two new typhoons, one of them, like "Bebinca", will come from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai in the next few days and continue to impact the Yangtze River Delta region of the mainland; The other will go all the way to the west, and after entering the South China Sea of the mainland, it will copy the route of "Capricorn" and come all the way to the coastal areas of South China on the mainland, and Guangdong, Fujian, and other places are all possible areas where landfall.
Therefore, the southeast coastal area of the mainland is still very challenging before the end of September, especially according to the simulation analysis of supercomputers, the border between Fujian and Guangdong on the mainland or the key area where new typhoons make landfall, and Hainan may avoid these two new typhoons.
Generally, autumn typhoons will last until about November, so this autumn is destined to be a "multi-typhoon autumn", here is also to remind everyone again, we must do a good job of typhoon prevention measures, prepare emergency supplies at home for no less than 3 days, typhoon weather is not necessary, do not travel, must pay attention to safety!