Delayed retirement is approaching, and behind it are these four major trends
On September 10, the 11th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress deliberated the State Council's proposal on submitting for deliberation the draft decision on the implementation of the gradual postponement of the statutory retirement age, which attracted the attention of all parties.
Experts said that one of the main reasons for delaying the statutory retirement age is to adapt to the current population development situation and effectively respond to the challenges of aging. How to understand the relationship between demographic change and retirement age adjustment? "Xinhua Viewpoint" reporters interviewed relevant experts.
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Trend 1: Life expectancy increases
The average life expectancy in mainland China has reached 78.6 years
The mainland has entered an era of longevity, and people have a longer period of old age in the course of their lives. According to the latest data, the average life expectancy in mainland China has reached 78.6 years.
He Dan, director of the Chinese Population and Development Research Center, said that according to forecasts, by 2030, the average life expectancy of the mainland will exceed 80 years is a high probability event.
"The rapid increase in longevity and the significant increase in average life expectancy mean that the remaining life expectancy of retirement age has increased dramatically and will continue to increase in the future. Correspondingly, the current statutory retirement age of 60 years old for male employees and 55 years old or 50 years old for female employees in mainland China has not been adjusted accordingly for more than 70 years. Yuan Xin, vice president of the Chinese Population Association and professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University, said.
"The current statutory retirement age was set in the 50s of the last century, when the average life expectancy was less than 50 years." Yuan Xin said, "Delayed retirement is a comprehensive social reform, which includes the needs of economic and social development. Adapting to the increase in life expectancy of the population is one of the important considerations. ”
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Trend 2: Quality improvement
The average number of years of education for the new labor force is more than 14 years
With the establishment of the world's largest education system on the mainland, the quality of the population has improved significantly. The average number of years of schooling of the working-age population has been increasing, from just over 8 years in 1982 to 11.05 years in 2023, especially the average number of years of schooling of the new labor force has exceeded 14 years.
"The gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education is now over 60 per cent, the number of university students has increased significantly, and the number of people in tertiary education has exceeded 250 million. Compared with the past when they started working at the age of 20, young people are now almost 25 years old after graduating with a master's degree and nearly 30 years old after graduating with a doctorate. Zheng Bingwen, director of the World Social Security Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, cited a set of data to point out that the entry of workers into the labor market is delayed, while the retirement age remains unchanged, which is not conducive to the full use of human resources.
"If the retirement age is appropriately postponed under the premise of voluntariness and flexibility, and at the same time the employment promotion mechanism is improved, and efforts are made to solve the structural contradictions in employment, so that a higher level of human resources can be effectively allocated and play a more role, it will be conducive to the release of new talent dividends, and at the same time, willing workers can also increase their income." Zheng Bingwen said.
"The opportunity for future development is to exchange quality for scale and quality for structure." Yuan Xin said: At present, the mainland is in the critical stage of transforming from a country with a large population to a country with strong human resources, and it is necessary to further deepen reforms, implement comprehensive policies, and give full play to the potential and advantages of human resources.
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Trend 3: The degree of aging is rising
The proportion of the elderly population will exceed one-third
Population aging is a major issue that must be faced to promote Chinese-style modernization.
According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, by the end of 2023, the elderly population aged 60 and above in mainland China will reach 297 million, accounting for 21.1%; There are 217 million elderly people aged 65 and above, accounting for 15.4%, and they have entered a moderately aging society.
According to forecasts, by 2035, the elderly population aged 60 and above will exceed 400 million, accounting for more than 30%, entering the stage of severe aging. By the middle of this century, the size and proportion of the elderly population on the mainland will reach a peak.
"With the continuous deepening of the aging of the population, the contradiction between supply and demand of pension services has become more prominent." Zhao Zhong, dean of the School of Labor and Personnel of the Chinese National University, said that aging is a challenge facing all countries in the world. Although delaying the retirement age cannot completely solve the problem of aging, it can increase the labor force participation rate, so that the willing, able and qualified older people can choose to continue to work in a certain way.
"The 'post-50s', 'post-60s' and the 'post-70s' who are about to grow old are the direct beneficiaries of the resumption of the college entrance examination, and the higher the education level will be. In the future, the number of older workers will be greater and their quality will be better, and they can also play a greater role in economic and social development under the improvement of policies such as stable employment and labor security. Yuan Xin said.
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Trend 4: The total labor force is declining
The working-age population is about 860 million
In population economics, the population between the ages of 16 and 59 is defined as the working-age population, who are the main force of social production.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of 2023, there will be about 860 million working-age people in the mainland, accounting for 61.3% of the total population. In terms of the total amount, the total size of the working-age population is still large, and the demographic dividend still exists, providing important support for economic and social development.
"The labor factor is a key factor in determining the long-term direction of the economy." Zheng Bingwen said that the mainland is still rich in human resources, but focusing on its potential and stamina, it is necessary to make better use of its advantages in human resources through certain policy adjustments.
The data shows that the number of working-age people has been decreasing year by year since 2012. "From a structural point of view, the proportion of young people and older groups in the working-age population has shown a trend of falling and rising. This means that in the labour market, the population with the strongest ability to match jobs tends to be relatively small. Zhao Zhong said.
In his view, with the trend of population aging, the decline of the working-age population belongs to the objective law of development. Gradual postponement of retirement can promote willing older workers to become an important force in enriching the future labor force, smoothing the curve of the decline of the working-age population.
Source: Xinhua News Agency