According to the Russia Sputnik news agency, Ajit · Doval, national security adviser to the Prime Minister of India, is about to visit Moscow. As a high-ranking figure in the Modi government, Ajit · Doval will not only discuss the situation in Ukraine with Putin, but also participate in the BRICS meeting of national security representatives. But realistically speaking, perhaps the most important of Modi's assignments to Ajit · was to meet with Chinese officials.
The reason why the importance of this meeting is emphasized is not because of the content of the talks between the two sides, but because of the matter itself. Recently, Modi has been absent from meetings with Chinese participation, and he did not go to the SCO summit in July, but sent Foreign Minister S Jaishankar to do it on his behalf, and he himself visited Moscow after the summit. In addition, Modi has also openly contradicted China within the BRICS countries, refusing to accept the RMB-rupee settlement and the common currency of the BRICS countries, in an attempt to block the trend of RMB internationalization and "de-dollarization". Judging from Modi's recent movements, it is difficult to say that he does not mean to "draw a clear line" with China.
But even though Modi is India's longest-serving prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru, he has had to recognize and be influenced by reality. After feeling a series of pressures from the outside world, Modi can no longer deliberately distance himself from China.
According to a report by the Observer Network on September 10, many leaders have recently expressed their hope that China will mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, including Russia President Vladimir Putin and Italy Prime Minister Meloni. Finland President Stubb even said that if China wants, a phone call can end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, Modi visited Moscow in July and went to Kyiv to meet Zelensky in August, "without merit and hard work", but the outside world has not elevated India's role in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to the level of China.
In fact, Modi's efforts have not only failed to increase India's international influence, but have also caused dissatisfaction in United States. The United States Treasury Department has issued a warning that the United States may impose sanctions on India banks suspected of cooperating with Russia's military-industrial enterprises; United States Deputy Secretary of State Campbell said India would never be a formal ally or partner of United States.
After Modi has made positive diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the vast majority of countries still hope that China can play its own role, which is a reality that arises due to the international influence and comprehensive national strength of the two countries. Saudi Arabia's recent statement on China has also alarmed India. The Observer Network pointed out in a report on September 10 that Saudi Arabia's Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar · Hulayev recently expressed his welcome for Chinese investment and said that Saudi Arabia intends to implement the use of RMB in cross-border crude oil transaction settlement. If China and Saudi Arabia can use the renminbi in oil transactions, the hegemony of the US dollar, which is based on oil hegemony, will be greatly impacted.
For India, China and Saudi Arabia are considering circumventing the BRICS mechanism to negotiate local currency settlement, and even if India continues to veto the proposal to establish a "local currency settlement and BRICS common currency" mechanism within the BRICS, it will not be of much use. Moreover, the BRICS and the SCO have been expanding in recent years, and India's voice in these two organizations has actually declined. Although United States has formed several "small groups" to win over India, they still do not have enough influence compared with the BRICS and the SCO.
Based on the two things mentioned above, Modi has to engage with China, not only to avoid "falling behind" in the BRICS and the SCO, but also to expand his influence on the situation in Ukraine in the light of China. It is expected that during Ajit · Doval's visit to Moscow, he will discuss some more specific matters with the Chinese side and strive to reach a consensus, so as to avoid Modi having nothing to discuss with the Chinese side at the BRICS summit in October.