Oil price adjustment, according to the gasoline and diesel price formation mechanism, this Thursday, the 16th oil price adjustment of the year, the third quarter, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will usher in "2 consecutive drops", the increase in oil prices during the year or will be significantly narrowed, everyone told each other, don't rush to refuel!
No. 92 gasoline, which rose by 700 yuan/ton, fell by more than 400 yuan in 2 consecutive years, and the price was adjusted on August 8!
At the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter, by the arrival of the United States Independence Day, the summer energy consumption season cashed in, the international oil price is expected to go first, in early June and early July, in just over a month, international oil prices rose sharply, among them, U.S. oil soared from $73.25 to $83.88, domestic oil prices stopped falling, and prices showed a "2 consecutive rises" situation!
On July 11, the first round of oil prices in the second half of the year rose, gasoline and diesel prices rose by 110 yuan and 105 yuan / ton, oil prices rose more and less during the year, after the rise and fall discount, gasoline rose 700 yuan / ton, and the price of No. 92 gasoline rose again into the "8 yuan era", among them, the price in Beijing rose to 8.11 yuan, and the price in Shandong and Shanghai rose to 8.07 yuan......
However, the performance of energy consumption in the summer was less than expected, the domestic economic growth slowed down in the second quarter, and the performance of fuel consumption after the independence of the United States was less than expected. No. 92 gasoline, which soared by 700 yuan/ton, also ushered in a wave of price reductions!
It is reported that at 24 o'clock on July 25, the 15th oil price drop in the year landed, and the price of gasoline and diesel fell by 145 yuan and 140 yuan, mainly due to the weak high international oil prices, and the decline was relatively limited! However, entering a new round of pricing cycle, recently, international oil prices have shown a trend of falling more than expected......
In particular, on July 31, by the attack on the Hamas leader, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East was tense, and international oil prices soared in a single day, among them, after the WTI crude oil quotation rose to 77.91 US dollars / barrel, in recent days, the crude oil market showed three consecutive declines, and the US oil quotation fell to 72.94 US dollars, a decline of 6.38% in a short period of time......
As the domestic refined oil price adjustment is based on the changes in crude oil in the three places, with a cycle of 10 working days, the 16th oil price adjustment in 2024, in this round of pricing cycle, the crude oil change rate has fallen deeply, as of the 8th working day, the reference U.S. oil price is 72.94 US dollars, Brent crude oil is quoted at 76.3 US dollars / barrel, the domestic crude oil change rate is -5.62%, and the price of gasoline and diesel has dropped by as much as 260 yuan / ton, which is equivalent to 0.2~0.24 yuan per liter of gasoline and diesel!
Now, the current round of oil price adjustment has entered the countdown, and the domestic refined oil will usher in the situation of "2 consecutive declines", with a decline of more than 400 yuan/ton, and the crude oil market continues to decline, and there is still a risk of further expansion of this round of oil price decline!
According to institutional analysis, because the Fed cut interest rates too slowly, although the September interest rate cut became a foregone conclusion, but recently, the United States economic data is too bleak, in particular, the United States non-farm employment unemployment rate soared to 4.3%, the market's concerns about the United States recession have become stronger, and international oil prices have been hit hard, which has intensified the support of this round of domestic oil price decline!
However, due to the assassination of the Hamas leader in Iran, institutions are generally worried that in the next few days, Iran may carry out strong retaliatory actions against the Middle East, which may exacerbate the performance of geopolitical risk spillover, exacerbate the risk of energy supply disruption, the market is still speculative, and international oil prices may still rise against the trend!
Therefore, the author will continue to pay attention to the trend of the market, this Thursday, August 8 at 24 o'clock, the 16th oil price decline of the year has been set, but there is still a risk of narrowing the decline, what do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, reminding everyone that oil prices are about to fall, pay attention to the arrival of the price adjustment time......
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