【Abstract】Affected by the warm and humid airflow from the southwest of the edge of the subtropical high and the shear line, there was heavy precipitation in our city on August 6~9, with heavy to heavy rain and local heavy rain. The cumulative rainfall in the process is 80~120 mm, and the maximum can reach 160~200 mm, of which the warm area scattered short-term heavy precipitation is mainly from the night of the 6th to the night of the 7th, and the maximum hourly rainfall intensity is 40~60 mm. From daytime to night on the 8th, affected by the eastward movement of the system, there was heavy to heavy rain in the city, accompanied by short-term heavy precipitation, and the maximum hourly rainfall intensity was 30~50 mm. The accumulated precipitation in this process is large, and it is necessary to prevent flash floods, landslides, geological disasters and urban waterlogging that may be caused by large accumulated rainfall and local heavy precipitation.
1. Precipitation weather forecast
It is expected that from the 6th to the 9th, there will be a heavy precipitation process in our city, with a cumulative precipitation of 80~120 mm and a maximum of 160~200 mm, accompanied by short-term heavy precipitation, and the maximum hourly rainfall intensity can reach 40~60 mm (Figure 1, Table 1). It is necessary to pay attention to the scattered short-term heavy precipitation from the night of the 6th to the night of the 7th, the regional heavy to heavy rain from the day to the night of the 8th, and the secondary disaster risks caused by the large accumulated rainfall and the overlap of precipitation in some areas with the previous precipitation. Specific weather forecast:
During the day on the 6th, the city was cloudy and overcast, with showers or thundershowers;
From the night of the 6th to the day of the 7th, there was light to moderate rain in the whole city, and there were heavy to heavy rains in Jingning, Kongtong, Chongxin, and Jingchuan, accompanied by short-term heavy precipitation, and the maximum hourly rainfall intensity was 40~60mm/h (Fig. 2).
From the night of the 7th to the day of the 8th, there was light to moderate rain in the city, and heavy to heavy rain in Jingning, Kongtong, Chongxin, Jingchuan, and Lingtai were localized, accompanied by scattered short-term heavy precipitation;
From the night of the 8th to the day of the 9th, the city rained heavily, and some areas rained heavily, accompanied by short-term heavy precipitation, with a maximum hourly rainfall intensity of 30~50mm/h.
2. Impact analysis
It is expected that there will be heavy precipitation in our city from the 6th to the 9th, with a large amount of accumulated precipitation and a large risk of disaster, and the meteorological risk of urban waterlogging, mountain floods, geological disasters and small and medium-sized river floods in most parts of the city is high.
1. There is a greater possibility of flash floods in Jingning, Huating, Kongtong, Chongxin, Jingchuan and Lingtai, and there is a greater possibility of flash floods in Kongtong, Chongxin, Jingchuan and Lingtai.
2. The meteorological risk of geological disasters in most parts of the city is high, and the meteorological risk of geological disasters in Huating, Kongtong, Chongxin, Jingchuan and Lingtai is high.
3. Countermeasures and suggestions
1. The intensity of precipitation in this process is large, and the heavy precipitation area overlaps with the previous precipitation area, and the risk of meteorological disasters is high. It is suggested to strengthen the monitoring of the water conditions of rivers, lakes and reservoirs and the inspection and elimination of hidden disaster points, so as to prevent secondary disasters such as floods in small and medium-sized rivers, mountain floods, geological disasters and urban and rural waterlogging. At the same time, attention should be paid to preventing the harm caused by strong convective weather such as short-term heavy precipitation, thunderstorms and strong winds to agriculture, transportation, and outdoor activities.
2. Heavy precipitation is easy to cause waterlogging in farmland, so it is recommended to pay close attention to weather changes and strengthen farmland management and monitoring and control of pests and diseases.
丨Source丨Pingliang Meteorological Bureau丨Production丨Pingliang Rong Media Center
丨Audit丨Feng Yuqiang, Liu Jie
丨Editor丨Wu Peng