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Brokerage performance forecast in the first half of the year is expected to enter the performance repair in the second half of the year丨Company research

On Wednesday, the A-share market rose strongly, and the "bull market flag-bearer" brokerage stocks collectively broke out, leading the market to counterattack. Guohai Securities, Tianfeng Securities, Pacific and other stocks have a daily limit, stock speculation software wealth trend and compass are both 20CM daily limit, and Oriental Wealth rose 9%. The diversified financial sector of Hong Kong stocks also soared, with Hongye Futures soaring 66% intraday, CICC and China Galaxy rising more than 9%, and Guolian Securities, CITIC Securities, Orient Securities and other stocks soaring.

Brokerage performance forecast in the first half of the year is expected to enter the performance repair in the second half of the year丨Company research

On Thursday, there was a differentiation and adjustment in the brokerage sector, and on Friday it fell as a whole, and with the advancement of the disclosure process in the interim report, the performance of listed securities companies has also attracted attention. Judging from the interim report disclosure time scheduled by listed brokers, the earliest interim report disclosure time is August 10, when Oriental Wealth and Hualin Securities released their 2024 interim reports. As of July 31, 14 listed brokerages have issued interim performance forecasts, and another 4 listed brokerages have released performance reports.

Judging from the information that has been released, the operating situation of brokerages in the first half of the year is not optimistic. Among the 14 pre-disclosed listed companies, 9 had a sharp decline in performance in the first half of the year, one had a pre-loss, one had a loss, and 3 had a sharp increase. The three companies that rose were Capital Securities (601136), Hongta Securities (601236) and Dongxing Securities (601198), ranking 16th, 21st and 30th in the industry by market capitalization; Among the companies with declining performance forecasts, Haitong Securities (600838), Zhongtai Securities (600918) and Northeast Securities (000686) all fell by more than 70%, of which Haitong Securities ranked 9th, Zhongtai Securities ranked 19th, and Northeast Securities ranked 48th. Although there is a large difference in rankings, the reasons for the sharp decline in the performance of the three companies are similar, basically due to market fluctuations during the reporting period, and the decrease in investment income and fair value change gains and losses; The scale of equity financing declined, and the income of investment banking business decreased.

Brokerage performance forecast in the first half of the year is expected to enter the performance repair in the second half of the year丨Company research

Among the four companies that disclosed performance reports, the performance of Huaan Securities (600909) and Guoyuan Securities (000728) increased year-on-year, while the performance of Zheshang Securities (601878) and Everbright Securities (601788) both declined.

According to the financial report of Zheshang Securities, the total operating income in the first half of the year was 8.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.27%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 780 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.45%. Zheshang Securities said that in the first half of 2024, the capital market experienced violent fluctuations, and due to the overall operating environment of the securities industry, the company's securities investment business, investment banking business and brokerage business income declined, but overall maintained a relatively stable operating performance; According to the semi-annual performance report of Everbright Securities, the revenue in the first half of the year was 4.200 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.03%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 1.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.87%. According to the announcement, affected by factors such as the decline in the scale of equity financing in the market, the decline in trading activity, and the intensification of market volatility, the company's brokerage, investment banking, and equity investment businesses decreased year-on-year.

Brokerage performance forecast in the first half of the year is expected to enter the performance repair in the second half of the year丨Company research

Huaan Securities achieved operating income of 1.962 billion yuan and net profit of 714 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.95% and 8.65% respectively; From January to June, the company's total operating income was 3.084 billion yuan, down 0.85% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 1.00 billion yuan, an increase of 9.44% over the same period last year. Both companies are listed securities firms in Anhui Province and are registered in Hefei.

The controlling shareholder of Huaan Securities is Anhui State-owned Capital Operation Holding Group Co., Ltd., and the actual controller is the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Anhui Provincial People's Government. The company is the main sponsor and largest shareholder of Quam Fund, wholly owned by Huaan Jiaye, Huafu Ruixing, Huaan Futures, Huaan Xinxing and Huaan Securities (Hong Kong), with a total of 151 securities branches and 13 futures branches, most of which are in Anhui Province.

Huaan Securities currently has a market value of 22 billion yuan, ranking 37th in the industry, formerly known as Anhui Securities Company, and is the first franchised securities institution in Anhui Province. In 2001, it became one of the first comprehensive securities companies in China, and in 2012, it was changed to a joint-stock company. On December 6, 2016, it made an initial public offering and was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (stock code: 600909). Since its listing, it has never suffered a loss, with a cumulative net profit of 8.341 billion, a cumulative cash dividend of 2.858 billion, and the latest dividend yield of 2.05%.

Brokerage performance forecast in the first half of the year is expected to enter the performance repair in the second half of the year丨Company research

The company said in the performance express report that during the reporting period, the company focused on the established strategic objectives, adhered to the business style of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and showed strong resilience in business development. Among them, the investment income increased significantly during the reporting period, driving the company's operating performance to increase year-on-year. The express report did not disclose the specific investment income content, but in 2023, the company will achieve revenue of 3.654 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.281 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%. The reason for the double increase in performance is also the large increase in equity securities investment income during the year, which led to the year-on-year increase in the company's operating performance.

Referring to the 2023 annual report, due to:

The A-share market rose first and then fell, showing a volatile downward trend as a whole. At the beginning of the year, the company seized a good start, and after the optimistic expectations were realized, the active business significantly reduced its positions for defense, and grasped the first stage of the market. In the fourth quarter, we tried to use stock index futures, ETF options and other derivatives tools to improve risk management capabilities in a larger range at the right time, and achieved certain results, and the overall risk was within a controllable range. In terms of fixed income investment business, the company combines risk management with daily investment decision-making, and centrally manages and dynamically monitors various risk exposures. Actively deploy a position hedging mechanism, and when necessary, use treasury bond futures, bond lending and other means to hedge to a certain extent. Most of the trading positions are treasury bonds and policy financial bonds with good liquidity, and the interest rate risk of the overall position remains at a medium to low level, and the position structure is relatively reasonable, and the interest rate risk control and management mechanism is relatively sound.

Brokerage performance forecast in the first half of the year is expected to enter the performance repair in the second half of the year丨Company research

Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd. was established in October 2001 by the former Anhui International Trust and Investment Company and the former Anhui Trust and Investment Company as the main sponsors. On October 30, 2007, taking the opportunity of the reform of equity division, the company was successfully listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange through backdoor "Beijing Hua II". The largest shareholder is Anhui Guoyuan Financial Holding Group Co., Ltd., and the actual controller is the same as Huaan Securities, which is also the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the People's Government of Anhui Province. Guoyuan Financial Holding Group is a wholly state-owned large-scale investment holding enterprise in Anhui Province, a provincial financial holding group, and a state-owned financial platform in Anhui Province with a relatively complete license. As of the end of 2023, the company's total assets were 132.856 billion yuan, and the owner's equity attributable to the parent company was 34.579 billion yuan. Guoyuan Securities currently has a market value of 29 billion yuan, and the company has a total of 106 securities business departments, ranking 28th in the industry. The company not only has rich securities business qualifications, but also holds Guoyuan International, Guoyuan Equity, Guoyuan Innovation, Guoyuan Futures, and participates in Changsheng Fund, Anhui Anyuan Investment Fund Co., Ltd., Anhui Equity Service Co., Ltd., etc.

According to the company's performance report, in the first half of 2024, the company's heavy asset department represented by fixed income business realized securities investment income (including fair value change income) increased more than the same period last year, prompting the company to achieve stable and progressive business goals, and achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by 9.44% over the same period last year.

Brokerage performance forecast in the first half of the year is expected to enter the performance repair in the second half of the year丨Company research

According to relevant reports, a number of brokerages believe that in the face of a complex market environment, in the second half of the year, it is necessary to "overcome obstacles", "dare to dare to do" and "maintain strategic concentration" to ensure the completion of the annual goals and tasks, and at the same time actively promote "cost reduction and efficiency increase" and "cost control". A brokerage research report pointed out that, overall, the internal growth momentum of the brokerage industry is slightly insufficient, but the average price-to-book ratio of the industry has been close to the lowest position in history, and in the context of policy promotion, the second half of the year is expected to enter a period of performance repair and enter a new growth cycle.

Author: Zhang Shu

Editor: Zhang Tianyi

Producer: Wang Junji

This article is the exclusive content of the WeChat public account of "CBN Broadcasting", please contact the background for authorization before reprinting. The individual stocks involved in this article are for reference only, and are not recommended for trading and are not responsible for personal income.

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