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Wonderful viewpoint
1. The performance of a single asset fluctuates greatly, and it is the choice of professional investment institutions to invest in multi-asset assets with good liquidity and low correlation.
2. The multi-asset wealth management solution can be divided into two parts: top-down asset allocation and portfolio optimization, and bottom-up multi-asset reserve and strategy development.
3. Follow-up optimistic about the three directions of A-shares: equipment renewal, industrial going overseas and steady dividends.
4. With market sentiment bottoming out and capital outflows slowing, Hong Kong stocks are expected to regain upside resilience after stabilizing.
5. China's domestic demand recovery is tortuous, institutional underallocation pressure is concentrated, and the view on interest rate bonds remains positive.
At 16 o'clock on July 24th, WindTalk was honored to invite Chen Chaodeng, Chairman of Schroder Bank of Communications Wealth Management, and Song Fei, Investment Director of Schroder Bank of Communications Wealth Management, to bring you an in-depth sharing of "New Investment Pattern, New Challenges in Financial Management - Multi-asset Solutions & Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2024".
Chen Chaodeng, Chairman of Schroder Bank of Communications Wealth Management, Ph.D. in Business Administration from City University of Hong Kong, and M.A. in Economics from New York University in United States. He has nearly 30 years of experience in the asset management industry. He joined Schroder Wealth Management in 2022 and has served the foreign shareholder Schroders Investment Group for more than 13 years. From 2016 to 2021, he served as the vice chairman of Bank of Communications Schroder Fund Co., Ltd., and has extensive experience in management and operation in Greater China and Mainland China. He has rich experience in investment and has experienced many times through bull and bear cycles.
Song Fei, Investment Director of Schroder Bank of Communications Wealth Management, Doctor of Science and Master of Mathematics and Finance from The State University of New Jersey, Rutgers, United States, honorary winner of "Shanghai Overseas Golden Talent". 15 years of experience in international and domestic investment research. He has successively served as the General Manager of the Multi-Asset Investment Line of CNCBI Wealth Management, the Director of the Multi-Asset Division and the Director of the International Division of the Asset Management Center of China CITIC Bank, the Deputy Director of the Capital Market Division and the Deputy Director of the International Division of the Asset Management Center of the Head Office of Bank of Communications, the Head of the New York Quantitative Team of the BGC of United States, and a Senior Quantitative Strategy Analyst. With rich experience in domestic asset management business and global vision, he has long been engaged in large-scale asset allocation, multi-asset investment, domestic and overseas fixed income, quantitative, FOF and other businesses.
In recent years, both the global investment environment and the domestic bank wealth management industry are undergoing profound changes, and asset management institutions need more diversified asset allocation capabilities and more mature portfolio management capabilities to meet the challenges of the current wealth management industry. Schroder Group has mature international experience in multi-asset business, and Schroder Bank of Communications Wealth Management not only draws on the advanced experience of the group, but also combines the actual situation of the domestic wealth management industry to form a unique investment and research system of the company to create a new quality of productivity in the wealth management industry.
The highlights are as follows:
First, the new pattern of investment under the great changes
First of all, Chairman Chen Chaodeng introduced the changes in the global investment landscape, including global economic differentiation, geopolitical risks and demographics.
He pointed out that in the past decade, the world economic and political landscape has faced profound changes, and the world is committed to achieving carbon neutrality to meet the challenge of climate change. The process of globalization is facing headwinds, requiring us to rethink the way we cooperate in the global economy; Demographic changes, such as ageing and declining fertility, have far-reaching socio-economic implications.
At the same time, the global economy has entered a major change. The United States economy has shown strong resilience thanks to the support of domestic consumption. While China's economy is recovering steadily, the transformation of old and new drivers is also continuing to advance steadily, and China is showing a positive trend of economic restructuring, transformation and upgrading.
Chen Chaodeng also said that in recent years, residents' allocation preferences for financial products have become more concentrated and conservative, and they tend to be fixed income products. On the investment side, the current 10-year Treasury yield fell below 2.20%, and the volatility of a single asset also made investment challenging. Investing in multi-asset assets with good liquidity and low correlation is an inevitable choice for professional investment institutions.
2. Multi-asset solutions to meet new financial challenges
Then, Song Fei analyzed that under the background of the new investment pattern, the wealth management industry of mainland banks is also ushering in new challenges, which are reflected in both the income side and the risk side.
On the income side, on the one hand, the performance benchmark of bank wealth management products is sticky and slow; It is difficult to change the long-term demand for wealth management income of wealth management customers and wealth management channels; But on the other hand, the pressure on the underlying asset allocation is high, and the yield is falling rapidly.
On the risk side, the tone of the "new asset management regulations" is relatively strict, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision is also strictly and quickly implementing the requirements of the new asset management regulations under the general tone of "long teeth and thorns", especially in the valuation method and term management requirements. Specifically, insurance deposits and trust accounts are gradually moving away, and the underlying assets of bank wealth management will undergo relatively big changes.
Seinfeld said that the performance of a single asset is sometimes good and bad, and the drawdown of a single asset will be large, so the low correlation between assets and strategies can be exploited. That is, through more diversified asset allocation capabilities + portfolio management capabilities to solve the current challenges encountered in financial management.
Seinfeld pointed out that the multi-asset wealth management solution can be divided into two parts: top-down asset allocation and portfolio optimization, and bottom-up multi-asset reserve and strategy development.
He said that as a joint venture wealth management company, Schroder Bank of Communications Wealth Management has not only learned from the advanced experience of Schroder Group, but also combined with the actual situation of the domestic wealth management market and the needs of customers, and formed a set of investment and research system under the guidance of the company's unique multi-asset concept, including four pillars: investment research platform, large asset allocation platform, product quality control system, and asset capability circle.
3. Outlook for the second half of 2024
Finally, Chen Chaodeng and Song Fei respectively introduced the outlook for the global and domestic capital markets in the second half of 2024.
Chen Chaodeng said that according to the latest views of Schroders' overseas team, global economic growth continues to improve, and the global GDP will be raised to 2.8% in 2024. The strong purchasing power of United States consumers and the accelerated economic recovery in the United Kingdom and the eurozone will help promote the continued recovery of global manufacturing, which is undoubtedly a big positive for export-oriented emerging market economies, but it may also lead to higher commodity prices and slightly boost inflation this year.
Chen Chaodeng pointed out that United States and emerging markets are still the key allocation direction of equity in 2024, and the profit growth rate of emerging markets in 2024 is expected to be twice that of United States; As interest rates begin to fall, the risk premium offered by emerging markets (EMs) is expected to regain favor. U.S. Treasury yields are trending downward due to the continued weakening of United States inflation data and rising market expectations for interest rate cuts. Against the backdrop of low capital expenditure and long-term tight supply in the overall oil industry, oil prices are expected to remain range-bound.
For the domestic capital market, Seinfeld said that the recovery of domestic demand in the economy is tortuous, the pressure on institutional underallocation is concentrated, and the interest rate bonds still maintain a positive view; In terms of credit bonds, it is recommended to follow the market for urban investment bonds, and it is recommended to allocate financial bonds of commercial banks with high-quality assets, or select one-year interbank certificates of deposit for dumbbell allocation.
He also pointed out that the view on A-shares is neutral, and from the perspective of historical quantiles in the past ten years, compared with other major indexes, the PB valuation of the CSI 300 Index is relatively high, and there is room for decline; In the future, we are optimistic about the three directions of A-shares, namely, equipment renewal, industrial going overseas and steady dividends.
Hong Kong stocks are expected to stabilize and rebound after falling to give up the previous gains, Hang Seng Technology's fundamentals have some support, and the forward-looking performance of the main constituents is worth paying attention to.
Gold consolidated near $2,400 / ounce, the People's Bank of China suspended the rhythm of continuous gold purchases, United States inflation data cooled to boost interest rate cut expectations this year, and the overall gold trend under the interweaving of long and short is expected to remain volatile and upward.
BFS (Wealth Management Statistics) collects data on all wealth management products of wealth management subsidiaries and commercial banks, focusing on the wonderful performance of net-worth bank wealth management
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Risk Warning: The content and views of this material are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice, and the Company does not assume any responsibility. This material is for promotional purposes only and is not intended as any legal document. The performance benchmark of wealth management products is not the expected rate of return, does not represent the future performance and actual income of the product, and does not constitute a commitment to the return of the product. The past performance of wealth management products does not represent their future performance, and is not equal to the actual income of wealth management products, so investors should be cautious. Wealth management is not a deposit, the product is risky, and investment should be cautious.
