China Metallurgical News, China Iron and Steel News Network
Reporter Wang Zhi reports
"Continental silicon steel has a full-coverage production capacity from low-end to mid-end and then to high-end products. The comprehensive quality level of product surface quality, plate shape and dimensional accuracy, product packaging and so on is completely comparable to similar foreign products. On July 26, Chen Zhuo, former secretary-general of the Electrical Steel Branch of the Chinese Society for Metals and expert consultant of the Science and Technology Development Center of the China Iron and Steel Association, analyzed the development history, current situation and new trends of China's silicon steel at the theme event of "Dialogue on High-end Silicon Steel to Help the "Double Carbon" Strategy.
Silicon steel is the core functional raw material of motors and transformers, and it is also one of the indispensable and important raw material products for Chinese-style modernization, high-quality development and people's lives. It belongs to the key products encouraged by the state, also known as cold-rolled electrical steel or cold-rolled silicon steel, which is divided into non-oriented silicon steel and oriented silicon steel. In 2014, Continental announced that it had phased out hot-rolled silicon steel sheets. Non-oriented silicon steel is a silicon steel with non-oriented deformation texture formed according to a certain production process, with a silicon content of 0.10%~3.50%, which is mainly used to make various motors, motors and other cores. Oriented silicon steel has strong directionality in magnetism, with a silicon content of more than 3.0%, and is mainly used to make various transformer cores.
The silicon steel industry is booming
Chen Zhuo introduced that in 2023, the mainland will produce a total of about 12.0407 million tons of non-oriented silicon steel, a year-on-year increase of 8%; The total production of oriented silicon steel was about 2.6502 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22%; The output of high magnetic induction oriented silicon steel (HiB) accounted for 59%, and the output of general oriented silicon steel (CGO) accounted for 41%; The output of medium and low grade non-oriented silicon steel accounted for 69%, and the output of high-efficiency and high-grade non-oriented silicon steel accounted for 31%.
In the first half of 2024, the mainland produced 1.385 million tons of oriented silicon steel, with a capacity utilization rate of 87%, and the number of production enterprises in the country reached 27. In terms of varieties, the output of high magnetic induction oriented silicon steel (HiB) was 969,600 tons, and the output of general oriented silicon steel (CGO) was 415,000 tons, and HiB accounted for 70%, of which the output of thin silicon steel of 0.20mm and below increased significantly. The production capacity of oriented silicon steel increased by 430,000 tons month-on-month, and the growth rate slowed down. The annualized increase in oriented output was 132,000 tons, an increase of 5%, and the growth rate slowed down.
In the first half of 2024, the mainland will produce 6.417 million tons of non-oriented silicon steel, with a capacity utilization rate of 82%, and the number of production enterprises in the country will reach 27. In terms of varieties, the production of high-grade non-oriented silicon steel was 1.973 million tons, accounting for 31%; Among them, the output of thin silicon steel of 0.20mm and below has increased significantly.
The silicon steel industry in mainland China is developing rapidly, and while the number of enterprises and output are growing, problems are also emerging. Chen Zhuo said that there are three problems that need attention in the current silicon steel industry. The first is to adjust the product structure, reduce low-end products, and increase the proportion of high-end products. Objectively look at the issue of increasing production capacity. He believes that it is necessary to look at the issue of production capacity objectively and dialectically from the perspective of economic laws. Moderate production capacity greater than demand is conducive to market competition, survival of the fittest, and technological progress. Second, the silicon steel industry should upgrade the equipment with high quality and intelligence. The mainland silicon steel industry is updating equipment and building new high-end lines, and is fully capable of meeting the needs of high-quality development of Chinese-style modernization. Equipment renewal is the need for high-quality development, and product upgrading is the need for energy saving and consumption reduction. Third, the production of silicon steel should optimize the process and pay attention to environmental protection. Silicon steel has a long process route and a long production cycle, and it is necessary to study new processes, new technologies and new equipment to make silicon steel greener and more environmentally friendly. For example, the research on acid-free pickling technology, the research on low-temperature HiB but normalization process technology, the research on the aging rolling technology of multi-roll continuous rolling mill rolling HiB, and the research on the drying technology of porous media combustion system.
Silicon steel materials ushered in new opportunities for development
Chen Zhuo analyzed the demand for silicon steel at the meeting. The first is that the state has upgraded energy efficiency standards. For example, GB12021.2-2015 "Limits and Energy Efficiency Grades of Household Refrigerators", GB21455-2019 "Energy Efficiency Limits and Energy Efficiency Grades of Room Air Conditioners", GB18613-2020 "Energy Efficiency Limits and Energy Efficiency Grades of Electric Motors" and GB30254-2013 "Energy Efficiency Limits and Energy Efficiency Grades of High-voltage Three-phase Cage Asynchronous Motors" will be revised in 2025, putting forward higher requirements for the energy efficiency of refrigerators, air conditioners, and industrial motors.
In the field of new energy, the energy efficiency standards for transformers have been revised again. In June 2023, the state issued the recommended standard for the new version of GB/T10228-2023 "Technical Parameters and Requirements for Dry-type Power Transformers" for new energy transformers, which will be implemented on December 1 of the same year. The energy efficiency standards GB20052 the "Energy Efficiency Limits and Energy Efficiency Grades of Power Transformers" that are being implemented have been revised, and some contents of new energy transformers have been added, which will be implemented on February 1, 2025.
Secondly, the global transformer market has a good outlook. Talking about the current situation of global transformer development, Chen Zhuo introduced that in terms of market size, the global transformer market will maintain a growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 7%~9% in 2023.
In terms of supply and demand pattern, the global transformer market demand is dominated by the Asia-Pacific region, and the demand in the Asia-Pacific and North America is growing rapidly, with United States, United Kingdom and Germany being the main importers, and China, Mexico, Korea and Turkey being the main exporters. In terms of competitive landscape, foreign-funded multinational enterprises occupy a large market, accounting for 20%~30% of the market share.
In terms of market size, the global transformer market will grow steadily in the next five years, and the global growth rate is expected to be slightly higher than that of China. In terms of technology trends, high efficiency and energy saving, support for new energy access, intelligence and digitalization, environmental protection and sustainable development are the development directions. In terms of material trends, oriented silicon steel is developing in the direction of high grades (above 085).
According to the report released by the United States Ministry of Energy, the United States and global demand for transformers in 2020 were 1,300 and 12,500 units, respectively, and are expected to rise to 2,800 and 23,400 units by 2027, respectively, with huge room for market growth. United States domestic supply is insufficient, its domestic production capacity is limited, import dependence is high, the lead cycle is extended, prices have risen sharply, materials and labor are insufficient, and the shortage may exist for a long time.
However, there are both challenges and opportunities for going global. In Chen Zhuo's view, the dispersion of foreign power grids, high certification barriers and policy restrictions pose challenges to domestic enterprises, but domestic products have cost-effective and production capacity advantages, and can increase the layout of going overseas.
It is worth mentioning that the European Power Grid Action also brings business opportunities to the transformer industry. In December 2023, the European Commission announced the "Power Grid Action Plan", which intends to invest 584 billion euros to overhaul, improve and upgrade the European power grid and its related facilities. It is estimated that in 2030, 40%~55% of the low-voltage lines in the European power grid will be more than 50 years old. Opportunities arise in the following five areas.
First, the distribution network is aging. Most of the equipment has a service life of more than 40 years, and the need for modernization and transformation of power grid facilities in developed countries is imminent.
Second, the demand for new energy grid-connected has surged. The amount of renewable energy waiting to be connected to the grid is huge and growing, and the installed capacity of "wind" power waiting to be connected to the grid in some European countries has reached hundreds of gigawatts.
The third is the growth of electricity consumption. Needs related to clean transport, heating and cooling, industrial electrification, and the launch of low-carbon hydrogen production need to be addressed. By 2030, electricity consumption is expected to increase by around 60%.
Fourth, the construction of charging stations and the increase in network access. The European Union passed legislation in early 2023 that all new cars registered in Europe must be zero-emission vehicles from 2035, and large-scale improvements in charging infrastructure are urgently needed.
Fifth, focus on cross-border power grid upgrades. Cross-border transmission infrastructure will double over the next seven years, adding 23 million kilowatts of capacity by 2025 and a further 64 million kilowatts by 2030.
Thin specifications, high magnetic inductance, and low iron loss are the future trends
Chen Zhuo made a forecast on the output of transformers in the mainland and the demand for oriented silicon steel and the output of non-oriented silicon steel at home and abroad, and calculated on average according to the consumption of oriented silicon steel per kilovolt ampere, predicting that in 2025, the output of transformers in the mainland will be 2.5 billion kVA, and the demand for oriented silicon steel will reach 2 million tons, and by 2030, the output of transformers in the mainland is predicted to be 3.4 billion kVA, and the demand for oriented silicon steel will reach 2.74 million tons. According to the forecast of 9.5 million new energy vehicle sales in 2023, the demand for high-grade non-oriented silicon steel for new energy vehicles in mainland China will be about 2.04 million tons in 2025, and the output of high-grade non-oriented silicon steel for new energy vehicles in mainland China will reach 3.26 million tons in 2030 (excluding the demand of other countries).
For the new trend of silicon steel development in the future, Chen Zhuo judged that it will develop in the direction of thin specifications; Develop in the direction of ultra-high magnetic inductance and lower iron loss; Develop in the direction of high frequency and high efficiency; develop in the direction of low-carbon green silicon steel; develop in the direction of intelligent manufacturing; Fast self-bonding cores will lead the drive motor technology because of their high strength, high precision, low noise, high thermal conductivity, high power density, and high efficiency.
At the same time, the market competition will be more fierce in the future, and the fittest will be eliminated, and a new batch will be eliminated; The formation of a homogeneous market, competition depends on quality, price (cost), and integrity; China's silicon steel industry chain will serve and contribute to the world.