Entering the second half of the year, has the hot pot catering bottomed out, and how long is it going to be before the rebound?
In recent months, the bleakness of business has made the hot pot people feel the "chill" in the scorching heat.
The once-fierce offensive war of joining has also become a small-scale assault, and convergence has become fundamental.
Let's get a glimpse of the trend of hot pot catering in the second half of the year from the mid-year data.
Issue 1647
Text | Great Dragon
More than 34,000 families were killed in seven months
How was the survival of hot pot in the first half of the year?
Looking back on the first half of the year, hot pot franchises have successively dropped blockbusters on the market, first Haidilao first joined the franchise, and then Sister Pei announced the opening of franchises, and many originally directly operated hot pot brands are also ready to move, and it seems that the battle for franchisees is about to start.
On the other hand, hot pot going to sea is also expected to be high, not only big names, but even the regional heads of several restaurants are tiptoeing to look out, hot pot "going to sea is fragrant or not" has its own conclusion, but it seems to be more like a game for powerful players.
For many hot pot restaurants, basing themselves on the local market and serving local customers well is what they are most concerned about.
No matter in which market, the sluggish sense of consumption growth has made many hot pot people take off again and again and land hard, and even close their stores in all directions.
What is the situation of hot pot catering in the first half of the year, let's take a look at a few sets of data:
From January to July 2024, there will be more than 28,000 new hot pot enterprises and more than 34,000 cancelled enterprises;
From January to July 2024, there will be more than 1.388 million new catering enterprises and more than 1.16 million cancelled enterprises.
For hot pot, the number of cancelled enterprises is higher than the number of new ones, which is consistent with the wave of hot pot closures in many places in the first half of the year. Looking at the entire catering industry, the number of cancellations of 1.16 million+ also reflects that the industry is clearing a large number of catering enterprises.
According to the data of the enterprise investigation, in June and July this year, 4,548 and 5,198 domestic hot pot-related enterprises were newly registered, and the revocation was unknown.
From January to May 2024, the number of new registrations and revocations of restaurants across the country will be roughly close.
From the perspective of several cities, in the first half of this year, catering revenue in many cities increased, among which Chongqing had the highest year-on-year growth, reaching 11.9%.
◎Note: Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou do not publish revenue figures
According to the data, the catering revenue of Beijing and Shanghai has declined year-on-year, or there is a low-speed growth. Chongqing, Chengdu and Changsha have all achieved leading growth in catering revenue.
Finally, let's look at the provinces. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of catering revenue in Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, Hubei, Fujian, Hunan and Liaoning was 5% or more, of which Hunan was the highest at 5.9%.
From this point of view, the position of the "leader" of catering consumption in first-tier cities is being overtaken by various places, and the regional market, which is increasingly strong in terms of economy and consumption strength, is becoming a new engine for catering growth.
Through the synthesis of several sets of data, with the influx of large-scale entrepreneurs into hot pot restaurants in the past two years, under the "looting" of waves of low prices, the industry is undergoing a wave of reshuffle, and the wave of enterprise cancellation and store closure is still continuing.
In addition, the demand for catering consumption in various places is still there, and the catering market is still showing an upward trend under the two-level differentiation of consumption.
Look at the hot pot through the big plate
What's new in the subtleties?
1. The turnover fell by 3 or 4 percent, and the industry was "anxious and anxious" for new growth
Hot pot restaurants recently communicated with many hot pot owners and found that compared with the first quarter of this year, the turnover fell by 20%-40%.
◎ Image source network, schematic diagram, graphic and text irrelevant
Recently, a hot pot owner in Chengdu told Hot Pot Restaurant that her store's monthly sales have shrunk from more than 500,000 yuan at the beginning of the year to 300,000 yuan at present. Consumption downgraded, regular customers reduced the frequency of store visits, and customer orders fell with the trend, anxiety even penetrated to front-line employees.
"Some customers say that they eat hot pot at home, buy their own base materials, and buy their own ingredients, so why go to a hot pot restaurant to spend 100 yuan per person. Customers have all kinds of things, but none of them have a solution to the problem. She said that she had to go to her excellent peers to find ideas.
She first went to a hot pot that is very popular both online and offline, experienced the store's services and products, and really needs to be on par with others in the timely response of the store.
But in the end, the store model is different, this store has put a lot of money into marketing, and there are still more than 100 people queuing at 9 o'clock in the evening on the day of the experience. But for ordinary businessmen, there is no excessive investment in marketing at all.
On the other hand, she found that her rent is relatively low, and the remaining money can be given back to customers, so that the customer order is lower, the product and quality are better, and the neighborhood-like service experience is added. In a chaotic market environment, it may be possible to survive the current situation.
In fact, the growth dilemma faced by her store is also a microcosm of most hot pot restaurants.
Not long ago, Jiumaojiu released a performance forecast, and the net profit in the first half of this year was not less than 67 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of no more than 69.8%, a decline of nearly 7%.
At the same time, according to the data released by the China Cuisine Association, in the first half of this year, the national catering market saw a phenomenon of revenue growth but no growth in profits, and price wars, homogeneous competition and the intensification of cost pressure are several major factors causing this phenomenon.
When everyone is fighting a price war, profits are squeezed, and customer acquisition ideas are approaching the ceiling, new traffic channels and profit models are trying to brew in various places.
2. The closure rate of the county market is 24%, and the sinking market is not having a good time?
A few days ago, at the 2nd Lingchao Summit of Hot Pot Meals, some colleagues also mentioned in the exchange that the current decline in stores is indeed very serious, coupled with the fierce confrontation of more than 70 hot pot restaurants in the same county, many newly opened stores have been closed hastily for a few months.
◎ Image source network, schematic diagram, graphic and text irrelevant
According to his rough estimates, as many as 17 stores in his county will close down after the New Year, with a closure rate of 24%. The number of store closures is expected to intensify in the second half of the year.
Previously, there was a more embarrassing situation in many sinking markets, when the flow of customers returning to their hometowns increased during the holidays, the stores could only receive customers.
However, enjoying the benefits of lower rents and manpower dividends in the sinking market, in the past two years, a chain of hot pots has gone to the county-level market, and some hot pot stores that can combine cost performance with local products and preferences still have a good business level.
Among the members of the Hot Pot Meal Creation Alliance, there are not a few people who have a daily turnover of 3 or 50,000 yuan in the sinking market.
The city has the "routine" of the city, and the county has the way of playing. Study the consumption orientation of various places, do a good job in site selection, product structure optimization, and even open stores with the mentality of "being neighbors with the people of the county", and the "county ladies" and "county new middle class" will vote with their feet.
3. Categories, stores are born and die quickly, and franchisees are more rational
In the traditional Sichuan-Chongqing hot pot and other large categories, it is difficult to catch "fish", and the subdivided categories have quickly become the object of development by many catering practitioners.
As a result, a number of new categories such as roast duck, slag beef, and freshly roasted beef appeared last year, which is quite a bit of "pulling out seedlings to grow".
There is also this year's Tianshui Malatang, which exploded in March and began to close down in batches in May, and even the day when many entrepreneurs went bankrupt became the day with the highest traffic, which is also magical.
◎ Tianshui Malatang closed down in batches
Not long ago, a hot pot boss told the hot pot restaurant that he once made it to the head of the market segment, but at present, the growth of the franchise is weak and has slowed down.
The category iteration of catering is rapid, and some new categories excavated from the alleys and the people are difficult to go far without a mature and systematic warm-up.
In addition, today's franchisees tend to be more rational, and many store owners do not want to become "leeks" who live and die quickly.
Under the heavy difficulties, we continue to fine-tune the differentiation
Create new advantages
After years of rolling up products, scenarios, and prices, it is more difficult for the industry to seek differentiation.
In the past, you sold "service" and I sold "productism", but now, some hot pot restaurants have gradually evolved to model differentiation. For example, self-help or semi-self-help modes such as crooked fat man and Tan Sanniang.
Another example is the hot pot in the vegetable market, customers can not only order food by the catty to eat in the store, but also take it home to make their own, in addition, some of these stores combine the classic roasted vegetables, lo-mei, hot pot bright stall fried rice, and on-site fried materials and other original product models with the model of the vegetable market, and multi-point combinations to create new differentiation.
Another example is a noodle restaurant in Chengdu that has made a new differentiation in taste, replacing ordinary soy sauce with customized straw mushroom soy sauce, although the cost of seasoning has gone up, but the differentiation of taste has been enhanced.
The differentiation of catering is also moving towards the deep water area, and the industry is aiming at the areas that the head and regional head look down on or are unwilling to do.
For differentiation, the famous entrepreneur Duan Yongping once disclosed his understanding - the difference in user demand satisfaction definitely refers to more than just appearance. Product differentiation does not refer to the so-called "different", but refers to the "different" things that are exactly what users need and others cannot satisfy.
At last
The industry has been reshuffled again and again, quickly clearing out the intruders who are not suitable for the market, and also accelerating the inspection of many new categories. At present, people with great preparation and outstanding longboard have the access conditions for the competition, and only by practicing basic skills and building a strong professional level can they go far.
The long slope and thick snow are not available when you come in, but you need to use the natural potential energy of the industry to repair the ramp yourself, so that the snowball can roll big and round.
The story of closing stores, saving oneself, and gradually improving the industry has just begun.