Introduction
1. The supply and demand of the land market have both declined, and the heat continues to differentiate 2. The threshold value of the top 100 land acquisitions has decreased by 40% year-on-year, and the investment willingness of the top 10 and top 10 real estate enterprises is relatively high, and the concentration of goods has increased by 4. The investment amount of typical real estate enterprises has increased by 21% month-on-month, and the central state-owned enterprises are actively collecting reserves in core cities 5. It will take time for the new housing market to repair the effect, and corporate investment continues to remain cautious
☉ Text: CRC Research Center
Interpretation of the list
Foreword: In July, the supply and demand of the land market both fell, showing a situation of hot and cold differentiation, Shanghai and Hangzhou were relatively hot, and Suzhou and Xi'an were cold. The investment intensity of enterprises remained weak, with the threshold of the top 100 new land acquisitions falling by 40% year-on-year, the highest in the year, and the total amount of land acquired by the top 100 investors also decreased by 38% year-on-year. The top 100 real estate companies in sales are also cautious, with an overall land-to-sales ratio of only 0.15. Looking ahead, we believe that land acquisition is expected to still wait for the progress of property market recovery, and the short-term investment atmosphere is mainly cautious, but some powerful real estate companies will actively compete for high-quality land plots.
1
The supply and demand of the land market have both declined, and the heat continues to diverge
As of July 28, 48.28 million square meters of operating land were traded in 300 cities across the country, down 15% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year. Thanks to the entry of high-quality land plots in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Changsha and other places, the average premium rate has rebounded this month. For example, at the end of the month, Hangzhou's land auctions saw a succession of high-premium residential land transactions, and high-quality residential land could still be auctioned at a high premium rate of 59% and 23%. However, at the same time, the market is still significantly differentiated, and the average premium rate in most cities is less than 1%.
2
The threshold value of the top 100 land acquisitions decreased by 40% year-on-year
There is a fault in the top 10 investments
As of the end of July, the threshold value of the top 100 new land reserves was 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35%, and the decline was narrowed by 2 percentage points compared with the end of last month, and the threshold of the top 100 new land values and construction area was 1.12 billion yuan and 252,000 square meters, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 40% and 10%, of which the year-on-year decline in the value threshold continued to expand to the largest this year, and corporate investment was not expected to pick up. From January to July, the number of enterprises with a land acquisition amount of more than 20 billion yuan increased to 7, but the investment amount of the leading enterprises was significantly faulty, and the gap between the eighth place in the value of new land acquisition and the previous one was nearly 10 billion yuan.
In terms of total volume, the total value of new land, value and construction area of the top 100 in the first six months were 1,139.7 billion yuan, 515.4 billion yuan and 58.71 million square meters respectively, down 32%, 38% and 19% year-on-year respectively, the decline rate narrowed, but the year-on-year gap was still large.
3
The investment willingness of the top 10 real estate companies is relatively high
The concentration of goods value has been improved
In terms of land acquisition intentions, the land-to-sales ratio of the top 100 real estate companies from January to July was 0.15, which was still the highest willingness of the top 10 real estate companies to acquire land, and the land-to-sales ratio reached 0.18. The land-to-sales ratio of the top 50 real estate companies was 0.14, and the land-to-sales ratio of the remaining echelons remained low, with little fluctuation compared with the end of last month. In terms of concentration, there is a trend of "head and tail strengthening": the new value of the top 10 real estate companies accounts for 55% of the total value of the top 100, and the top 50 real estate companies account for 16% of the total value of goods, both of which increased by 2 percentage points from the end of last month, and the proportion of the remaining echelons decreased slightly.
4
Typical real estate investment increased by 21% month-on-month
Central state-owned enterprises are actively collecting reserves in core cities
From January to July, only 30% of the top 100 real estate companies are still active in the land market, and if compared with the same period last year, more than 60% of the company's investment amount has declined year-on-year, and the investment attitude is becoming more cautious.
From the perspective of land acquisition in a single month, with the acceleration of the pace of land supply in some high-energy cities and the launch of more low-density land plots, the amount of land acquired by typical real estate enterprises has rebounded at the bottom for two consecutive months. In July, the monthly investment of 30 key monitoring real estate companies was 34.8 billion yuan, an increase of 21% month-on-month, second only to the high point in April during the year, but almost halved year-on-year. It can be seen that even the investment of large-scale enterprises that are still acquiring land is also shrinking. In July, the more active land acquisition is still large-scale central state-owned enterprises, such as Poly Development in Beijing, Shanghai and other cities actively absorb reserves, a monthly land acquisition amount of 14.75 billion yuan, much higher than other real estate enterprises, Greentown, China Merchants and other monthly investment is also more than 3 billion. In terms of city selection, core cities and core plots are the focus of real estate enterprises. Among the typical real estate enterprises that acquired land in a single month, the first- and second-tier investment accounted for more than 95%, mainly in hot cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and Hangzhou.
5
It will take time for the new housing market to repair the effect
Corporate investment continues to be cautious
For example, the core land in Shanghai, Hangzhou and other cities have been popular, but Suzhou, Hefei and other cities continue to be sluggish, mainly due to the poor performance of projects in core areas, which has a greater impact on the confidence of real estate companies to acquire land. On the enterprise side, only 30% of the top 100 real estate companies active in the land market are active, but the amount of land acquisition by key monitoring real estate companies in a single month has rebounded at the bottom for two consecutive months, and the active land acquisition is the leading state-owned central enterprises such as Poly Development and China Merchants Shekou. In general, corporate investment is still waiting for the signal of the recovery of the property market, which will drive the growth of corporate investment confidence; In addition, high-quality land plots in core cities with low density and superior location are still more attractive to enterprises and will cause active bidding.
Typesetting: Civil Engineering, Yoki
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