Text: Internet Jianghu Author: Liu Zhicheng
It's not that the stock price is not strong, but that the reduction is too ruthless.
The same is true for the U.S. stock market.
Recently, Baidu issued an announcement showing that Baidu's "boss lady" Ma Dongmin reduced her holdings of Baidu shares by 260,000 shares, worth $22.4146 million, and the "approximate sale date" shown in the announcement was July 1.
This is the first time this year that Ma Dongmin has reduced his holdings in Baidu. Last year, Ma Dongmin repeatedly reduced his holdings of Baidu shares, worth more than $200 million.
Combined with the popularity of Baidu Radish Run during this time, Ma Dongmin's reduction this time is a bit interesting.
Robotaxi的盈利预期与马东敏的减持
Reducing holdings of this kind of thing, after all, it is still necessary to take into account the influence of public opinion, and the gentle and elegant image of Robin Li who appeared in front of the camera cannot be destroyed, as the woman behind Robin Li, Ma Dongmin has no choice but to play a "wicked person".
Whether it is Robin Li, who is polite and polite, or Ma Dongmin who ruthlessly reduces his holdings, they are a family.
Regarding Ma Dongmin's many reductions last year, some netizens ridiculed: "The radish run has become Dongmin run."
Compared with last year's total reduction of $200 million, Ma Dongmin's stock reduction this time is worth $20 million, which is not much. Of course, perhaps this may not be the only reduction in holdings during the year, and there may be new reductions in the future, all of which must be subject to the announcement information disclosed by Baidu.
It's just that this reduction is very interesting. This round of reduction was followed by the fire of Baidu Radish Run and Baidu's profit expectation of Robotaxi.
Looking at Baidu's U.S. stock trend, everything has an answer.
The market is sensitive, and when there is a stir, investors may be moved. Therefore, in the U.S. stock market, from June 20 to July 10, Baidu has a wave of gains.
Taking advantage of this rally, Ma Dongmin successfully reduced his holdings at a high level, while Baidu's stock price took a sharp turn, falling from near $190 to around $170. Theoretically, if Robotaxi earnings expectations are released at this time to pull a wave of stock prices, it is a perfect match.
It rose and fell, and the air was filled with the aroma of leeks.
However, things don't seem to be going in the expected direction, and the protests of taxi drivers triggered by Carrot Run have made people realize that the landing of Robotaxi may not be so easy.
As a result, the market was not pulled up after July 10.
On the macro level, it may be affected by the disappointment of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and from a practical point of view, it may also be because after the public opinion turmoil of the carrot run, investors in the U.S. stock market have lost enough confidence in the future commercialization of Robotaxi.
All in all, this wave of decline may have disrupted market expectations.
The boss's shares have been sold, if the stock price falls like this, will it disrupt the next shareholding reduction plan? Therefore, how to pull the stock price back next may be the biggest headache for Baidu executives at the moment. And Ma Dongmin reduced his holdings like this, and after the popularity of Robotaxi passed, it may be more difficult for Baidu to raise the stock price again.
If this wave of stock prices can't pull up, it is interesting whether the "boss lady" will reduce her holdings in the next few months.
Behind the reduction, not optimistic about the commercialization of Baidu's Robotape?
Ma Dongmin's reduction in Baidu's stock is nothing new.
On July 3 and October 2, 2023, Ma Dongmin reduced his holdings of 390,000 shares of Baidu twice, worth $53.39 million and $52.4 million, respectively. Prior to those two reductions, from April to June 2023, Ma Dongmin reduced his holdings of Baidu shares 27 times, with a total value of about $49.46 million.
After several reductions in 2023, Ma's shareholding has dropped to 3.2%.
The reduction does not affect Robin Li's control over the company, which holds about 18.2% of the shares and 59.3% of the voting rights in Baidu, and remains Baidu's largest shareholder and actual controller.
But according to the boss's posture of reducing holdings, it is worth thinking about when Baidu's stock price will return to its highs.
It stands to reason that Robin Li and his wife are not short of money, and Ma Dongmin reduced his holdings enough last year, amounting to more than 200 million US dollars, and the current situation shows that Baidu does not need so much money to operate. According to the financial report, as of March 31, 2024, Baidu's cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments were 191.8 billion yuan.
Since there is no shortage of money, is it because the proprietress herself is not optimistic about the commercialization of Baidu Robotaxi?
Not really.
Although Ma Dongmin is less known by the outside world, the establishment and development of Baidu have a deep connection with this boss lady. In 2017, Ma Dongmin returned to Baidu, and was also responsible for Baidu's beans, human resources, marketing and public relations. Tianyancha APP information shows that Ma Dongmin is also a director of Beijing Baidu Investment Management Co., Ltd.
For Baidu, Ma Dongmin knows enough. In recent years, there will always be Ma Dongmin's shadow in Baidu's development, so the development of Baidu's Robotaxi should also be recognized.
Interestingly, Baidu has not publicly responded to Ma Dongmin's reduction this time.
From the perspective of a third party, in addition to the need for funds, it may be that the company's shares are at a high point and have a certain "premium", and it is more "cost-effective" to reduce holdings at this time node.
The market's "premium" for Baidu is nothing more than two points: the growth of the advertising business and the commercialization of the AI business.
In fact, there is no need to say much about the advertising business, Xiaohongshu, last year's advertising revenue was 10 billion yuan, although it was not as large as Baidu's, but it also took a piece of the pie, coupled with the structural changes of video advertising and information flow advertising, under the background of insufficient market demand, Baidu's advertising revenue growth is limited.
In terms of AI business, it is still a bit early for Wen Xinyi to talk about commercialization, and Robtaxi is Baidu's "hope for the whole family".
In May, Baidu held a press conference, and the direction of the PR press release issued at that time was obvious, emphasizing: It is expected that Radish Express will break even in Wuhan by the end of 2024 and will be fully profitable in 2025.
Baidu has always wanted to tell the capital market that Robtaxi can make money.
What Robtaxi really attracted the attention of the capital market was the news of 4 yuan for 10 kilometers, which detonated the spread of the C-end and made the capital market see that if the cost allows, then Robtaxi may soon replace the traditional online car-hailing.
Although Baidu has been emphasizing the decline in the cost of its driverless taxis, investors only trust their own judgment, and it is not until taxi drivers come out to resist that investors are willing to believe that this may be true.
Unexpectedly, the public opinion storm of the boycott of Robtaxi is indeed a bit big. After the bombardment of various media, Baidu and Radish Express changed from representatives of AI technology companies to "capitalists who want to use technology to grab jobs" overnight.
For a while, rumors were spreading, and even rumors were spread on the Internet that Wuhan radish was about to be suspended, and Baidu had to come forward to refute the rumors.
Baidu is the leader and innovator of the AI industry, and it is also the most important player in the Robtaxi industry, so Baidu is the first to be affected by all the good news and bad news about Robtaxi.
In fact, the future of Robtaxi business as the core of imagination may not be a good thing for Baidu's valuation.
It needs to be admitted that even if it is not particularly mature now, the large-scale landing of Robtaxi in the future is very economically valuable, so the market will be bullish on Baidu in the long run.
It's just that betting too much on Robtaxi can also come with a "sweet burden". The implementation of Robtaxi not only has technical costs, capital costs, but also social costs.
Baidu is able to solve the technical cost and capital cost, but only the social cost Baidu cannot bear.
In the future that is visible to the naked eye, Robtaxi will not be able to truly land without solving the problem of social costs for a day. When the time comes, who will pay for these additional social costs?
This is also a question worth pondering.
Disclaimer: This article is based on the company's statutory disclosures and public information, but the author does not guarantee the completeness and timeliness of the information. Another: The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. The article does not constitute investment advice, and whether to invest or not should be determined by yourself.