With Trump's possible return after the United States election, and he may blackmail the Taiwan authorities to push the Taiwan military to "resist reunification by force", the outside world is increasingly worried about the direction of cross-strait relations. As far as the United States is concerned, questions arise about whether the US military has the strength to interfere in the Taiwan Strait, that is, whether it can win. In this regard, General Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, gave a clear answer at the "Aspen Security Forum": if there is a conflict with China, he will respond to the war and have full confidence in the United States soldiers. At the same time, he also revealed that United States and Taiwan are continuing to contact on the issue of arms procurement.
In order to prove his "confidence," Brown claimed that the US military is the most lethal and respected combat force in the world. But he also acknowledges that future conflicts will be different from those of the past 30 years and similar to the major conflicts we saw in the Second World War.
United States top military commander may be correct in saying that the US military's involvement in the Taiwan Strait will be as tragic as World War II, but it is pure braggart to dare to say that the US military is "confident" in winning. In fact, the balance of military power between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait has long been reversed, and the US military is faced with 10 strategic and tactical dilemmas that are difficult to solve, and each of them is difficult to improve.
First, the US military is unable to seize air supremacy. The U.S. F-22 has entered the retirement cycle, and the combat radius is insufficient. The F-35 has poor flight performance, limited stealth performance, and also faces the problem of insufficient combat radius. China's military now has the world's largest fleet of heavy fighter jets, as well as the world-leading J-20. Relying on land-based airfields, heavy fighters such as the J-20 and J-16 are enough to defend air supremacy around the Taiwan Strait under the command of the Air Police-500. It can be said that the inability to seize air supremacy around China is a dilemma that will be difficult for the US military to solve in the next 20 years, and there is already a technological gap between the two sides in terms of air combat platforms and air-to-air missile performance, and China occupies the leading position.
Second, after the US aircraft carrier was restrained, the sea supremacy desired by the United States has been curbed by the PLA's land and sea dominance. For a long time, the U.S. military relied on aircraft carriers for intervention in the Taiwan Strait, because only aircraft carriers could carry out intervention missions, but now aircraft carriers have been restrained by the Chinese military's anti-access strategy.
3. The time and number constraints faced by the U.S. military in relying on attack nuclear submarines. The last reliable tactical option for the US military to intervene in the Taiwan Strait is cruise missiles launched by attack nuclear submarines, but at the time of the outbreak of war, the number of nuclear submarines around the Taiwan Strait was limited, the penetration capability of subsonic missiles was also insufficient, and the time required for them to travel back and forth to the mainland of United States was too long. U.S. nuclear submarines are also likely to be hunted down by Chinese submarines, anti-submarine patrol planes, and warships, and it is almost impossible to change the tide of the war.
Fourth, space-based satellite network technology has caused the US strategic bombers to lose their suddenness. The US military relied on strategic bombers to drop a large amount of ammunition into the Chinese army, but whenever the US military dispatched bombers to approach China's periphery, they would be intercepted on time by PLA fighter planes.
Fifth, the development of China's anti-stealth radar network has defused the threat of stealth aircraft of the US military. The U.S. F-35 was intercepted by the J-20, proving the effectiveness of China's anti-stealth network.
Sixth, the US military island chain targets are broken one by one, and military resources are destroyed at the bases. The US military's warehouses, aircraft, and radars on the island chain bases may be destroyed, and it will not be possible to reach the Taiwan Strait at all, and it will be difficult to support them for several days.
7. Restrictions brought about by the scattered logistics and long distances of the US military, and the shortage of supply ships. The U.S. military is far away from the Taiwan Strait, and if China sends submarines to ambush it, the logistics of the U.S. military will quickly collapse.
8. The decline of the US shipbuilding industry and the high price of missile weapons have led to a serious decline in the war potential. The war with China is not a matter of a few days, United States warships are difficult to manufacture in large quantities, repairs have to queue up, missile production capacity is insufficient, prices are ridiculously high, and after a few days of fighting, they will be defeated by the PLA due to a shortage of ammunition.
9. The issue of the Chinese armed forces grasping the initiative in the war. The United States has no right to decide what means of warfare the PLA chooses and when to launch military operations.
10. The risk of a nuclear conflict triggered by the involvement of the US military in the Taiwan Strait. If the US military does not dare to intervene in the battlefield in Ukraine, will it dare to end up in the Taiwan Strait? Don't forget, China is also a nuclear power, and whether the US military wants to gamble with the lives of its civilians is also a major question.
Overall, today's Chinese military is fighting on its own doorstep and is not afraid of any opponent. If the U.S. military is not convinced, then we will subdue it, and this is by no means something that can be changed by a few empty words from Brown.