At present, the Shanghai Composite Index is getting closer and closer to 2900 points, if it can break through 2900 points and stabilize at 2900 points, the overall trend of the stock market may be able to end the decline.
It is a pity that the market of the Growth Enterprise Market is sluggish, and many sectors do not show signs of continuous rise, so that the overall market of the three major stock indexes is still in the time when the bears are strong and the bulls are strong, so that the bottoming out counteroffensive trend of A-shares is still brewing.
In other words, the stock market is now in a time when the competition between long and short is very fierce, if the Shanghai Composite Index can break through 2900 points, and the ChiNext Index can break through 1700 points, this time the decline will begin to end.
However, the Shanghai Composite Index is still at 2900 points, the GEM has not risen sharply, and the energy of the bulls has decreased significantly, and the bears are likely to continue to have a slight advantage.
On the evening of July 29, another news came out
Message 1,
The good news of the brokerage sector is coming, and the interim dividend of the brokerage this year is expected to set a historical record. In 2022 and 2023, there will be 2 brokerage companies with interim dividends and 1 respectively. But this time, there are more than 25 brokerage companies that have paid interim dividends, and even last year's annual dividends have exceeded 26.
It can be understood that brokerage companies have paid more and more attention to rewarding investors under the management of encouraging listed companies to actively pay dividends, and the brokerage sector has maintained a bottoming out market in recent times.
In particular, the brokerage sector, which has been declining for more than 3 months, has hit a record low this year due to the general decline in performance in the first half of the year. With the advent of mergers and acquisitions, the increase in the number of companies with dividends from brokerages may make the sector have a positive performance.
The reason for this is that the current stock market and the brokerage sector should become the leading sector in the rise, which can make the three major stock indexes end their decline. If the brokerage sector is still adjusting, it will cause a surge in risks behind the three major stock indexes.
At present, after the brokerage has landed in the negative performance, the good dividends and mergers and acquisitions will be able to start rising later, which can enhance the sentiment of investors and will also make the stock market out of the current long and short differentiation market.
Message 2,
The data disclosure of the fund's second quarterly report has ended. From the analysis of the second quarter report, the position of active equity funds and stocks is declining. It was 87.15% at the end of the last quarter and 86.40% at the end of the second quarter, indicating that some funds were sold when the stock market fell.
However, in the second quarter, the public fund position was still focused on the main board allocation of 64.20%, the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) allocation of 8.65%, and the allocation of the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) to 15.46%. It can be seen that public funds continue to be bullish on high-dividend sectors, and may think that when the stock market falls, high-dividend defensive sectors can become long-term huddle sectors.
Peony believes that the high-dividend sector is currently considered by many institutions to be a medium and long-term investment sector. However, in the second quarter, equity funds also actively increased their positions in electronics and communications, and reduced their investment in consumption, medicine and other sectors. In this way, the fund is currently bullish on the stock market with high dividends and the technology sector.
In addition, the fund manager's analysis is that the risk of a decline in the stock market is decreasing, followed by the low valuation of A-shares, and the future market can be optimistic.
However, Peony expects that in the back of the stock market, regardless of the fund manager's changes in the adjustment of the sector and the optimism of the stock market, the structural opportunities will not change in the second half of the year.
Will it start to rise sharply tomorrow or will it continue to fall?
From the analysis of news 1, the brokerage sector has fallen sharply before because of the negative news, and the current brokerage sector is in the medium term dividends, as well as mergers and acquisitions, if the sector can maintain an upward trend, it will also accelerate the Shanghai Index to break through 2900 points, amplifying the rise behind.
News 2 shows that the position of active equity funds has declined, and the position of consolidation funds is also grouped in the high-dividend sector, so that the current structural opportunities in the stock market are still the main theme.
Peony expects that tomorrow Tuesday, will not be the beginning of a big rise, if the brokerage can rise sharply, tomorrow's stock market is hopeful to brew before the start of the big rise, but the current trend is still falling, the short cycle is likely to be risky.
Fortunately, there has been no change in the huddle of high-dividend sectors, and the structural bull market will continue in the future.
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