Text/Editor: Yu Xiaoran's notes
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has lasted for more than two years, a major turning point is quietly taking shape.
Zelensky, the "tough guy" who was originally unyielding, has suddenly become softer than silk recently, took the initiative to throw an olive branch to his old rival Putin, and repeatedly expressed his willingness to negotiate peace with Russia, this 180-degree turn is also a little incomprehensible!
What's going on?
A 180-degree turn in Zelensky's attitude
Recall that in the early days of the conflict, Ukraine repeatedly rejected Russia's demands for negotiations.
Zelensky insisted that there would be no negotiations of any kind unless Russia fully withdrew its troops, but recently Zelensky's attitude has changed significantly.
On July 18, Zelensky changed his normal situation and took the initiative to invite Russia to the second Ukraine peace summit. This stuns the big guys! You know, at the first summit, he didn't even let the shadow of Russia appear.
What's more, in an interview with the BBC, Zelensky seems to be a different person: "As long as you can end the war, you can talk to anyone, it doesn't matter if Putin comes or not." "What I said is more than seeking peace!
This sharp shift in attitude reflects the current predicament facing Ukraine. United States CNN analysis believes that Zelensky's move shows that Ukraine recognizes that the current situation is not favorable for Ukraine.
Despite continued military assistance from Western countries, Russia's offensive has not stopped. Once Western aid is reduced, Ukraine will have difficulty coping with internal and external troubles.
The reason behind it
Behind Zelensky's change of attitude, two key factors are worth paying attention to, the United States presidential election and the debt crisis in Ukraine.
The United States election is simply a "time bomb" in Ukraine, Biden, the "golden father", withdrew from the election, while the "miser" Trump is in the limelight. Trump let go of the cruel words, saying that he would end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours.
This means that if Trump comes to power, Ukraine is likely to lose United States, its biggest supporter.
What's worse is that Ukraine now owes a "huge debt" of $20 billion, which is fatter than Ukraine's treasury! The repayment period is approaching, but the economic situation of Ukraine can no longer afford such a huge repayment.
On July 22, Ukraine's Prime Minister Shmygal announced that Ukraine had reached an agreement with Eurobond-related institutions to ease the current debt pressure in the next three years.
But this is only a temporary relief, and in the long run, Ukraine still needs to seek more economic support and investment to rebuild the country's economy.
Russia's reaction
In the face of Ukraine's signals for peace talks, Russia's response has been cautious and tough.
Putin has repeatedly said that Russia is willing to resolve the conflict through negotiations, but at the same time stressed that the Zelensky government has lost its legitimacy and the results of the negotiations need to be approved by the "legitimate authorities of Ukraine."
At the same time, Putin also threw out a series of "harsh conditions": the Ukrainian army retreats, recognizes Crimea as Russia, and never joins NATO. This condition is open, it is simply to ask Zelensky to "run naked"!
At the same time, the Russian army is still stepping up its offensive in Kharkov, is this trying to negotiate with a "fist"? It seems that Putin wants Zelensky to "kneel" before speaking.
Military experts analyze that once the Russian army conquers Kharkiv, Ukraine's defense line in the eastern region will be in danger of collapsing.
Seeking Chinese mediation New hope for Ukraine
In this complex situation, Ukraine has set its sights on China.
From July 23 to 26, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba visited China upon invitation. Although the purpose of the visit has not been disclosed, it is widely believed that Ukraine wants to receive China's support in peace talks and economic assistance.
In fact, Zelensky has previously said that Ukraine is willing to negotiate peace with Russia only if large countries like China and United States act as "intermediaries".
China has maintained a neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, neither providing military assistance to Russia nor standing idly by the sidelines. On the contrary, China has been calling for a peaceful negotiated solution and has expressed its willingness to facilitate peace talks in its own way.
For Ukraine, China may not only play a mediating role politically, but more importantly, it may provide economic support. Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, China was already one of Ukraine's largest trading partners.
If the conflict can be resolved peacefully, Chinese markets and investments will play a key role in Ukraine's economic reconstruction.
But Ukraine's cooperation with China is also facing pressure and interference from the West.
How to balance the relationship between all parties in the great power game will be a major challenge for Ukraine's diplomacy.
Despite Zelensky's willingness to negotiate peace, the road to peace remains fraught with difficulties. The differences between Russia and Ukraine on core issues remain huge, and the lack of mutual trust is also a serious problem. In addition, the attitude of United States and other Western countries will also have an important impact on the process of peace talks.
However, as the war drags on, the need for peace negotiations is increasing.
For Ukraine, ending the conflict as soon as possible and starting reconstruction has become a top priority. For Russia, despite its military advantage, ongoing sanctions and international isolation have also brought enormous pressure.
In this context, China's role as a neutral mediator has become increasingly important. China has the ability to strike a balance between different positions and push all parties to the negotiating table. At the same time, China may also play an important role in Ukraine's economic reconstruction.
epilogue
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been going on for more than two years, causing great harm to the people of both countries and the global economy.
Today, the dawn of peace seems to be emerging, and although the road is still difficult, peace will come if all parties can remain rational and compromise with each other.
In this process, the international community, especially a big country like China, should play a positive and constructive role.
Only by working to resolve conflicts and promote dialogue can lasting peace be achieved and people in the midst of war can return to peaceful lives. This is not only about Russia and Ukraine, but also about the peace and stability of the whole world.
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Information sources:
Zelensky: Can negotiate with Putin——2024-07-22 · Global Times
Foreign Ministry: Ukraine Foreign Minister Kuleba will visit China from July 23 to 26——2024-07-22· China.com