Abstract:In the era of digital communication, program-controlled switches have been rapidly popularized and widely used in many industries due to their stability and efficiency. As a key technology, the program-controlled switch not only ensures the smooth operation of the communication network, but also significantly enhances the comprehensive efficiency of the entire communication system to meet the diverse communication needs. However, with the gradual reduction of the proportion of fixed telephone services in the communications industry, the market demand for program-controlled switches is also facing challenges. In 2023, the output of China's program-controlled switches will be 5.07 million lines, a year-on-year decrease of 42.63%.
1. Definitions and Classification
A program-controlled switch is a fully electronic automatic switch controlled by an electronic computer storage program, which uses pulse code modulation (in most cases) time division multiplexing technology for switching. The control mode of this switch is computer storage program control, and the pre-programmed program is stored in the electronic computer, which responds in real time, and implements intelligent control with the instructions of the stored program, and completes the call connection. Program-controlled switches can be divided into analog program-controlled switches and digital program-controlled switches according to the switching signals; According to the scope of application, it can be divided into local (public) switches and user (private) switches; According to the continuous mode of switching network, it is divided into air division switch and time division switch.
Second, industry policies
As an important part of the communication industry, the development of China's program-controlled switch industry is supported and regulated by a number of policies. In April 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued the Interim Regulations on the Radio Management of Ultra-Wideband (UWB) Equipment, proposing to promote the development of the radio industry, strengthen the management of ultra-wideband (UWB) equipment, improve the efficiency of spectrum use, maintain the order of airwaves, and ensure that ultra-wideband (UWB) equipment and other radio systems achieve frequency compatibility and sharing. As an emerging wireless communication technology, UWB technology has the advantages of high-speed data transmission and precise positioning. The implementation of this regulation will help promote the integration of UWB technology and program-controlled switch technology and promote technological innovation in the industry. At the same time, the policy helps to standardize the market order of program-controlled switches and related radio transmission equipment, and ensure the legality and compliance of equipment production and use.
Third, the development process
The development of China's program-controlled switch industry has mainly gone through five stages. In the initial stage from the 60s to the 70s of the 20th century, during this period, China's program-controlled switch industry began to take off, and the initial application was relatively limited. During the rapid development period from the 80s to the 90s of the 20th century, with the rapid development of computer technology, program-controlled switch technology has developed rapidly, and has begun to gradually replace the traditional analog switch. From the 90s of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century, the market expansion stage, China's program-controlled switch market expanded rapidly, and domestic manufacturers began to rise, such as Huawei, ZTE, etc., and gradually occupied a certain market share. From the beginning of the 21st century to 2010, the stage of maturity and competition, during this period, China's program-controlled switch industry has entered a mature stage, and domestic and foreign manufacturers are fiercely competitive, and domestic manufacturers have gradually occupied a dominant position in the market through technological innovation and cost advantages. Since 2010, in the stage of technological innovation and transformation, with the continuous progress of communication technology, especially the development of new technologies such as 5G and cloud computing, the program-controlled switch industry has begun to transform to a higher technical level, and is constantly exploring new business models and market opportunities. At the same time, in recent years, the program-controlled switch industry is developing in the direction of intelligence and digitalization, integrating with emerging technologies such as the Internet of Things and big data to adapt to new market needs and challenges.
Fourth, industry barriers
1. Technical barriers
Technical barriers are an important feature of the program-controlled switch industry, which involves the comprehensive application of communication technology, computer technology, network technology and other fields. With the development of communication technology, the design and manufacture of program-controlled switches require a high degree of professional knowledge and technical accumulation. Enterprises must have strong R&D capabilities in order to continuously launch new products that meet market demand. In addition, the stability, reliability and security requirements of program-controlled switches are extremely high, which requires enterprises to have strict standards and mature technologies in product design, production process, quality control, etc.
2. Capital barriers
Because the R&D, production and sales of program-controlled switches require a large amount of capital investment, this puts forward higher requirements for the capital strength of enterprises. First of all, the R&D stage requires a large amount of investment in talent introduction, technology R&D and test equipment purchase. Secondly, the production stage requires the establishment of production lines, the purchase of raw materials and equipment, which require a lot of financial support. In addition, sales and marketing also require companies to have sufficient funds for advertising, channel building, and customer service. Capital barriers are also manifested in the fact that enterprises need to bear certain operational risks. Due to the fierce competition in the communications market, enterprises need to continuously carry out technological innovation and product upgrades to adapt to market changes. This not only requires enterprises to have sufficient capital reserves to deal with possible market risks, but also requires enterprises to have good financial management and risk control capabilities.
3. Certification test barriers
When enterprises enter the program-controlled switch industry, they also need to face complex technical certification and testing processes. These certifications and tests are not only a guarantee of product quality, but also a test of the technical strength of the enterprise. For example, companies need to be approved by the relevant national authorities for radio transmission equipment types, as well as comply with the standards of international organizations such as the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). These certification and testing processes are often time-consuming and require a significant investment of human, material and financial resources.
Fifth, the industrial chain
1. Analysis of the industry chain
The upstream of the program-controlled switch industry chain is raw materials such as PCB/electronic components, operating systems, switching chips, CPUs, optoelectronic chips and optical modules. The middle stream of the industrial chain is a manufacturer of program-controlled switches. The downstream of the industrial chain is cloud computing vendors, telecom operators, government and public safety agencies, other enterprises and home users.
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