In the "mid-year exam" in the first half of 2024, what kind of "report card" did the export market of mainland trucks hand over?
In June 2024, the mainland exported 61,769 trucks, an increase of 6% year-on-year, and from January to June 2024, the cumulative exports of trucks in the mainland were 351,076 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% (see screenshot 1).
Screenshot 1, the number of trucks exported from mainland China in June 2024 and from January to June and the year-on-year period (data source: China Automobile Dealers Association)
So what are the characteristics of the mainland truck export market in June 2024 and January-June 2024?
Feature 1: In June, it decreased by 5% month-on-month and increased by 6% year-on-year, showing a stable development trend
According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, mainland truck exports in June 2024 were 61,769 units, down 5% from May this year and up 6% year-on-year.
It can be seen that in June this year, the export of mainland trucks increased by 6% year-on-year, decreased by 5% month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase and decrease were in single digits, so it can be considered that the mainland truck export market showed a stable development trend in June this year.
Feature 2: The number of exports from January to June hit a new high in the same period in recent years
Table 1, according to the data of China Automobile Dealers Association, the number of trucks exported from January to June in the past 7 years:
According to the table above, truck exports from January to June 2024 were 351,100 units, a record high for the same period in the past seven years, and the second year in which the number of exports exceeded 300,000 units in the first half of this year. According to the analysis, the main reasons are:
First, the competitiveness of Chinese brand truck products overseas continues to improve.
In recent years, Chinese brand cars have been greatly improved in terms of appearance, quality, and intelligent network configuration, and are not inferior to the products of joint venture brands, and some advanced configurations even surpass those of joint venture products.
Second, the overseas investment model of Chinese truck companies has undergone important changes.
At present, the overseas development model of truck enterprises has developed from the original trade model and part of the KD model to the direct investment model. Some trucking companies have directly invested in factories that have begun mass production overseas, and have gradually increased production and sales. This lays a solid foundation for enterprises to support the overseas sales of their own brands and promote future growth.
Third, Chinese brand trucks began to focus on building their own overseas brands.
Localized production and marketing are conducive to the establishment of the image of Chinese truck brands, and are conducive to continuously enhancing the overseas popularity and reputation of Chinese truck brands. This is the only way for Chinese trucks to go overseas, among which the truck export performance is better than Beiqi Foton, China National Heavy Duty Truck, FAW Jiefang and Shaanxi Automobile Group, etc., in the first half of 2024, the overseas market has achieved good harvest, and it has won a good reputation for the export of truck companies in the future.
Fourth, mainland trucks are cost-effective, have the advantages of low price and high quality, and have been favored by some developing countries.
Feature 3: Light trucks lead the way, and medium trucks lead the rise
Screenshot 2, the export volume and year-on-year growth of various trucks in June 2024 and January-June 2024 (source: China Automobile Dealers Association)
Table 2, the export volume and proportion of various trucks in June 2024 and from January to June 2024 (data source: screenshot 2)
The table above shows:
--- Among the exports of various trucks in June 2024 and from January to June, light trucks were exported to 33,000 units and 179,000 units, up 10% and 19% y/y, respectively, accounting for 53.2% and 51%, respectively, ranking first in the truck export market.
--- tractor exports were 10,000 units and 69,000 units, up -33% and 2% y/y, respectively, accounting for 16.1% and 19.7%, respectively, ranking second.
--- heavy-duty truck exports were 10,000 units and 66,000 units, up -4% and 2% y/y, respectively, and the market share was 16.1% and 18.8%, respectively, ranking third.
--- exports of medium- and medium-sized trucks were 6,000 units and 26,000 units, up 71% and 32% y/y, respectively. The market share was 9.7% and 7.4% respectively, ranking fourth;
--- export volume of other models is small, and the market share is less than 5%.
In short, whether in June this year or from January to June in the mainland truck export market, light trucks are leading, and medium trucks are leading.
Feature 4: In the first half of the year, new energy led the decline, and diesel led
Table 3, year-on-year growth rate of exports of various types of power trucks from January to June 2024 (data source: China Automobile Dealers Association)
The above table shows that in the export of various power trucks from January to June 2024
1. From the perspective of year-on-year growth rate:
---- new energy (including pure electric and hybrid) trucks exported a total of 13,468 from January to June, a year-on-year decrease of 36%, leading the truck segment of various types of power in the first half of this year. According to analysis, mainly Europe and the United States and other countries have temporarily slowed down the pace of truck electrification; In addition, the current United States has taken measures to suppress the mainland's new energy vehicle exports, so to a certain extent, it has hindered the mainland's truck export market in the first half of this year.
2. From the perspective of market share:
---- diesel trucks accounted for more than 7 percent (70.7%) of exports from January to June this year, ranking in the absolute dominant position in the mainland truck export market in the first half of this year, leading the truck export market.
In short, "new energy leads the decline, diesel leads" is an obvious feature of the mainland truck export market in the first half of this year.
Feature 5: Truck exports in June: Mexico and Chile ranked second and third respectively; Saudi Arabia led the gains
--- among the top 10 truck exporters in June 2024, Mexico and Chile ranked second and third respectively, with 7,967 and 3,140 exports respectively, an increase of 40% and 25% year-on-year, respectively; The market share is 12.9% and 5.08% respectively
--- top 10 exporting countries exported a total of 34,318 vehicles, an increase of 9.6%, accounting for 55.54%.
Feature 6: Cumulative exports in the first half of the year: Mexico and Viet Nam ranked second and third respectively, with Algeria leading the gains
Table 5: Top 10 truck exporters from January to June 2024 (data source: China Automobile Dealers Association)
The chart above shows:
--- among the top 10 truck exporters from January to June 2024, Mexico and Viet Nam ranked second and third respectively, with a cumulative export volume of 43,759 and 17,774 respectively, an increase of 43% and 32% year-on-year, respectively; The market share is 12.5% and 5.06% respectively
--- TOP10 exporters increased by 7 year-on-year and decreased by 3, of which Algeria led the increase by 1324% year-on-year.