Wheat prices are falling more and more without a bottom line, when will it be the bottom? In the past, it was speculation about price increases, but this year, where did the stubbornness of wheat grain points, grain merchants, and traders go?
Look at the front of the various flour enterprises now, the endless flow of carts is lined up, and the wheat, finally fried in the hot July.
In the past two days, affected by the weather and expectations, grain points and farmers began to sell more grain, and all flour mills (large, medium and small) began to fall in price - in the face of such a situation, many people said that "falling into the ground".
If you think it's a bad thing, you come and take it! Hit or not?
Hello friends, today is July 26, 2024, extra! Extra! In the wheat market in 2024, you say that magic is not magic, and flour mills have begun to buy sprouts! And the purchase price is the same price as the price of Pumai! You say, is the price of sprout wheat dropping, or is the price of Pumai rising? - Too bad!
Isn't the blistered wheat flour mill not collecting? Now they are basically sold to feed companies, and the price of shipments is about 1.13 yuan.
The current flour enterprises are also "bottoming out" - try once, someone sells, then try again, someone sells, until everyone stops selling, and the price is stable.
Auctions/purchases continue to hammer market confidence
Shaanxi Military Grain Emergency Response Support Co., Ltd. sold 3999.99 tons of second-class provincial reserve wheat produced in Shaanxi in 2020 at a bid price, with a reserve price of 2520 yuan, and the auction was unsuccessful.
Anhui Yingshang County Changping Reserve Grain Depot Co., Ltd., bidding to purchase 10,000 tons of wheat in 2024, second class and above, with a reserve price of 2,540 yuan, all transactions, and the transaction price is 2,520 yuan.
Guangdong Huizhou Reserve Military Food Supply Company will bid for the purchase of 5,867 tons of white wheat in 2024, with a reserve price of 2,740 yuan, a transaction price of 2,660 yuan, and a pure "negative" premium of 120 yuan.
The bran began to hammer the price
A few days ago, he "praised" Wudeli for "hard bearing" the price of bran, but he never expected that he would be slapped in the face directly, and five finger prints came out - the price of Wudeli bran fell across the board.
Shaanxi Jinshahe price 1680 yuan; Hebei Hualong agricultural clothing price 1490 yuan; Xingtai Jinshahe offers 1540 yuan; Shaanxi Weinan good noodles edge, Xianyang Wudeli fell 40 yuan, the price was 1660 yuan; Hebei Shenzhou Wudeli fell 60 yuan, quoted 1580 yuan;
Henan Xinxiang Wudeli fell 50 yuan, quoted 1610 yuan; Shandong Jinshahe price 1580 yuan; Hebei Baixiang good noodles offer 1,500 yuan; Xiongxian good noodles are quoted at 1540 yuan; Beijing Yihai 1470 yuan; Weifang developed price of 1604 yuan;
Why the sudden drop across the board?
1. Enterprise inventory pressure;
2. The rainy season is coming;
3. Task pressure at the end of the month;
4. Terminal sales pressure;
It is even more difficult to change or reverse the falling situation in a short period of time! Why?
In June, the production, processing and stocking of fungi, coupled with the speculation of traders in the early stage, and the rise of flour mills, only to pull out the profit of 500 yuan when the price fell to about 1,200 yuan.
Last month, after the rebound in bran prices, traders' sentiment and confidence doubled, and some people have even risen to about 1800~2000 yuan.
However, after entering July, the phased stocking has been completed, and there is no greater good news in the market, resulting in very huge downstream sales pressure. At this time, it came to a "vicious circle" - there was no sales at the lower price.
As a result, emotions and confidence suddenly disappear, and in this case, the only way to increase sales is to reduce prices. But the market situation is particularly interesting: the more it rises, the more people buy, and the more it falls, the more no one buys the strange circle - human nature.
More importantly, the leading flour enterprises led by Wudeli have quickly realized sales in the bran price increase market, but many companies are still in the warehouse, which is also the factor that some enterprises have large inventories and can only be forced to drop prices.
What does it mean? No matter how good the flour enterprise is, it is also a human being, and as long as it is a human being, it will judge the market wrongly.
To sum up, the editor is so verbose, it is to use the rise and fall of bran prices to support the mood and rhythm of the flour industry and the wheat market, but also to prove the judgment of grain points and grain merchants and the ability to grasp the rhythm of the market - a version of the copy.
In June, the increase in storage points was announced a few days, and the stimulus of information such as the price increase of flour enterprises also boosted the confidence of grain points and grain merchants at the grassroots level: everyone unanimously believed that wheat had fallen to a protective price, and when would it not be harvested at this time, and the enthusiasm for purchasing was in full swing.
1. A very small number of grain merchants make profits by taking advantage of the east wind of price increases and then quickly leaving the warehouse after purchasing a large number of them at the reserve price;
2. Most of the grain points and grain merchants are looking forward to the price increase in the next few months, and then hold on to the grain and wait for the price to rise;
However, after June, the sideways trend throughout July shattered the dream of grain points and grain merchants to raise prices. Not only did we not see the price increase, but we were greeted by all kinds of rainy weather, grain quality problems, flour enterprises fell prices, feed companies were slow to purchase, and grain sales were not in line with the price.
After a month-long ordeal, many people can't bear it or have no expectations and hopes, so they can only choose to cash out or force them to cash out, but they basically leave the market without making money.
Emotions are like viruses, and bearish sentiments are contagious faster than bullish sentiments.
Latest national wheat prices for July 26, 2024
Hebei Shenzhou Wudeli: 1.22 yuan (with tickets), down 5 cents.
Shandong Feixiang flour: Pumai 1.252 yuan (with tickets), down 3 cents.
Yihai, Yanzhou, Shandong: Pumai 1.245 yuan (with tickets), down 5 cents.
Shandong Lisheng Group Wucheng Company: Pumai 1.247 yuan, 1.252 yuan (with tickets), down 3 percent.
Shandong Heze Tianbang: Pumai 1.255 yuan (with tickets), down 5 percent, Zhongmai 578 price 1.33 yuan (with tickets), down 1 point.
Henan Luohe COFCO: 1.233 yuan, down 2 cents.
Henan Anyang Hualong: 1.235 yuan, down 5%.
Henan Suiping Jinmailang: 1.227 yuan for the car, 1.222 yuan for the car, 3 cents.
Henan Sifeng raw grain: the same price of Xinchen is 1.255 yuan, the second best is 1.285 yuan, and the best wheat is 1.32 yuan, falling 5 percent.
Jiangsu Huasheng Flour Yanhu Company: 1.25 yuan, down 5 cents.