文丨酒业家团队（ID：jiuyejia360）
Planning丨Yuxuan Editor丨Yifan Editor丨Yunding
Editor's note: Since 2022, the wine industry has gradually entered a cycle of adjustment and transformation, with high inventory, slightly weak dynamic sales, and prominent contradictions among manufacturers becoming more prominent contradictions in the current wine industry. At the same time, different groups in the industrial chain, including wineries, distributors, and terminal stores, are also suffering from different pressures, how do they think and act under pressure? In order to explore the logic of thinking and change of different groups in the wine industry, the wine industry has launched the column "Through the Wine Industry Cycle" to present the most front-line and fresh thinking and practice of the wine industry, in order to bring more thinking to the wine industry. This is the second installment.
In 2024, the adjustment of the wine industry will resonate with the macro environment and category adjustment, and wine merchants, as the link hub between manufacturers, terminals and consumers, are facing dual pressure from upstream and downstream.
Recently, wine industry experts have investigated wine merchants in Beijing, Shandong, Fujian, Shaanxi, Hebei, Anhui and other places and learned that in the face of the new cycle of the industry, some wine merchants have adjusted their product structure by increasing the share of the public price segment and increasing the weight of red wine, beer and other categories; There are also wine merchants who have expanded their channels by sharing resources and risks through strategic alliances with peers, as well as "reconstructing the plate within the plate" of instant retail, live-streaming e-commerce and food and wine alliances. In addition, under the new cycle, manufacturers' policies, new customer mining or the focus of wine merchants.
01
Adjust the product structure to become the first choice for wine merchants
Increase the share of the public price segment, and beer and red wine have become new favorites
Although in the interview, many wine merchants invariably used the word "boil" to describe the current state, but this "boil" is not to sit still, lie down, wine industry experts understand that wine merchants are generally by actively adjusting the product structure, looking for new growth points to cope with this round of adjustment period.
In the recently released article "The Mass Price Band Continues to Heat Up: The Selling Price of Liquor Moves Down, and the Sales of 100-300 Yuan Exceed Expectations丨First-line Research", it was mentioned that in the second quarter when the overall consumption of liquor entered the off-season, the sales of liquor products at the price of 100-300 yuan or even 100-200 yuan were very bright, releasing a few positive signals. This price band has also become the focus of this year's wine merchants' layout.
Li Yang, the relevant person in charge of a regional chain brand of liquor in Guangdong, introduced (pseudonym) that this year, 20 new products of large brands in the mass price segment of the store have been added, such as Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and more than 100 products of Jinshiyuan, which are also benefiting from the timely adjustment of the product structure, and the chain brand has not been affected by the decline in the industry this year.
"This year, we have opened 7 new stores, as long as there is a suitable location, we will open them when the conditions are ripe." Li Yang said that they will work hard to deepen the store this year, improve the business ability of the group buying manager, and improve the store's anti-risk ability and brand effect.
Xinjiang's largest liquor chain brand, "9+9 Chain Liquor City", has also increased the proportion of products in the mass price band this year. According to the founder Liu Yongcai, last year the store made 3 self-owned products, this year increased to 12, the price is 50-200 yuan. "The main thing is to highlight the cost performance, and the hot sales of these products strongly support store traffic and profits." It is reported that the number of "9+9 chain liquor city" stores has increased from more than 50 at the end of last year to more than 60.
In addition, the adjustment of categories is also a common choice for wine merchants. Under the multiple factors of the cancellation of the "double reversal" policy on Australian wine, the European Cup and the season, Australian wine and beer have become the new favorites of wine merchants.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, Australia wine has made a strong comeback after the cancellation of the "double anti-dumping" measures: the monthly import volume and import value in April increased by 470.22% and 3337.35% year-on-year, respectively. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in June, Australia's wine imports were about 4.93 million liters, an increase of nearly 319 times year-on-year, and the import value was about 100 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of nearly 494 times.
Behind this surge is undoubtedly the "quick action" of wine merchants who smell business opportunities.
Chen Yuyang (pseudonym), a wine merchant in the East China market, originally only represented a leading soy sauce wine brand, but recently "devoted" himself to red wine and became the provincial representative of Penfolds. He told the liquor industry that as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, 80% of the dealer customers are replenishing, and the performance is estimated to be about double year-on-year, which largely makes up for the gap in the poor sales of liquor.
"In the past, red wine accounted for 3% of the market share, and the favorable policies are superimposed on the changes in consumer demand, and it is expected to account for about 17% in the future." When it comes to the future, Chen Yuyang is very optimistic.
Not only that, Huazhi Liquor Store, which exceeded 10 billion yuan in revenue last year, also announced in June that it was the exclusive agent of Penfolds' Penfolds Bin 704, Penfolds Bin 600, Penfolds Kolanshan series and other products.
In terms of beer, the European Cup and the Olympic Games have also ushered in high growth in the beer economy. This can be glimpsed from the performance forecasts of some beer listed companies: Yen Ching Restaurant is expected to achieve a net profit of 719 million yuan to 797 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 40%-55%; Benefiting from the continuous optimization of product structure and actively carrying out the work of reducing costs and increasing efficiency, Pearl River Beer achieved both sales and revenue growth in the first half of the year, and is expected to achieve a net profit of 476 million yuan to 531 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%-45%.
According to Liu Yongcai, the 4,500 pieces of beer that arrived in his store in early July were sold out in more than ten days.
Hunan Yongzhou Datang Wine Cellar Tang Zong also noticed the opportunity point of beer. He told the wine industry that in the past, 60% of the product structure of Datang Wine Cellar was liquor, 30% beer, and 10% red wine and others. This year, all six stores of Datang Wine Cellar have increased the proportion of beer, and one of them is more focused on beer, including craft beer and water beer, and through cooperation with Meituan, Crooked Horse Delivery, etc., the store coverage radius has been expanded with the help of instant retail, and the opening hours have been delayed. "We are now open until 12 o'clock every night, at a price close to that of a barbecue stand, to meet the demand for ready-to-drink beverages."
"The three elements of retail, cost, efficiency and experience, if you do any one to the extreme, you can succeed." Mr. Tang said that the combination of beer + low-price products is its move to cope with the cycle.
02
Peer alliance and expansion of new channels
Multiple measures to help wine merchants through the cycle
In the face of fierce competition in the stock market, wine industry experts have noticed that wine merchants are also responding to the "cold winter" through industry alliances, food and wine combinations, and the expansion of new channels.
As a veteran who has been deeply involved in the wine industry for more than ten years, Yang Jingui, general manager of Beijing Taihe Jinzun Culture Co., Ltd. and Shandong Liquor Youmeng Culture Co., Ltd., planned the industry alliance. He told the wine industry that the industry alliance is not only a product alliance, but also an alliance in operation, promotion, consumer service, etc., and increases the front warehouse business in the form of an alliance to achieve nearby distribution. It is reported that the first achievement of its peer alliance - Shandong Liquor Youmeng Culture Co., Ltd. is expected to officially open in September.
"In line with this, we have also set up a three-product reading club, and held various themed learning salons, in-depth seminars and field study visits from time to time, using wine as a medium and meeting friends with literature, and building the Wine Alliance into a new social platform." Yang Jingui said.
In the view of Ouyang Qianli, a researcher in the wine industry, the vast majority of profits are currently taken away by manufacturers, which means that regional chains and industry alliances have a certain right to speak on a certain product in a certain region, so as to re-coordinate the distribution of profits with upstream manufacturers, and get rid of the dilemma of no profit of famous wine, low profit of regional wine, and no sales of developed wine.
In addition, not only wine companies are interested in the combination of Chinese food and wine, but also some wine merchants are the first to try. Last year, 1919 linked restaurants and consumers through the two major services of "1919 Eat and Drink Card" and "1919 Eat and Drink Shop", providing a one-stop solution to the two major needs of food and wine, and becoming a pioneer in the model of "reconstructing the catering plate within the plate".
According to Du Zhiguo, a liquor marketing expert in Hebei, he has reached a partnership with more than a dozen local catering companies to form a closed sales loop, and these enterprises have entered 5,000 pieces in advance during the peak period of liquor, and the dynamic sales effect is obvious.
In order to realize the change from selling wine to selling lifestyles and stimulating sales, Tang Hui, executive chairman of the Chamber of Commerce of Moutai Town, Renhuai City, also planned and developed Renhuai gifts. The sauce flavor appetizer gift box includes six Guizhou specialties, and is adjusted according to the seasonal dishes, and the consumption amount reaches a certain amount for free. "A box of sauce-flavored snacks has made the 'change from selling wine to selling lifestyle' more concretely implemented, and good wine with good dishes has made the winery and wine merchant service terminal more heart-warming." Mr. Cai, a wine merchant in Guizhou, said that the combination of buying wine and delivering food and wine and food is very obvious to improve dynamic sales. "In just a few days, there are more than 20 distributors, cigarette hotels, consumer consultations, and orders."
"Boil, if you can survive, you can see hope. Price involution, new media, and those with financial strength can still go out. Jin Songhao, a liquor merchant at Bairong, believes that the reason why some liquor merchants in Bairong have grown well is that they have tried to ship through new channels such as live broadcast and e-commerce. According to him, a bottle of liquor for 100-200 yuan is very popular on the Internet.
Ouyang Qianli believes that, on the whole, there are many wine merchants who can go through the cycle, such as Xu Datong, chairman of Lufeng Sugar and Liquor Company, founder of Shandong National Liquor Moutai Collection, and Chen Yong, chairman of Shandong Yimeitang Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. The former follows Moutai, thus following Moutai through the cycle; The latter follows the market, from wholesale to supermarket, from supermarket to chain store, and now it has empowered young people to embrace the market in combination with instant retail. Big wine merchants, such as Yan Kuiping, integrate resources to incubate "Chishui Cave Liquor"; Old wine merchants, such as Yang Jingui, integrated the industry and launched an alliance to achieve resource sharing and risk sharing; New wine merchants, such as Zheng Dajie, general manager of Jinan Lixia Qianli Tea and Wine Center, integrate tea room and club resources to provide customers with diversified services; Another example is Ma Yangyang, co-founder of Shandong Dezhou No. 1 Wine Warehouse, who integrated resources to obtain increments from emerging platforms such as Douyin and Video Account.
03
under the new cycle
Manufacturer policies and new customers are the focus of attention of wine merchants
In the interview, the wine industry found that under the new cycle, although the focus of wine merchants is different, the manufacturer's policies and new customer mining have surpassed profits and become the core of the present.
Du Zhiguo said that the core of his concern lies in stability, on the one hand, the stability of the manufacturer's policy, that is, the implementation of the policy can be adhered to for a long time; On the other hand, the conversion efficiency, that is, the market investment, not seeking large-scale benefits, can achieve small steps, small-scale investment can achieve user conversion, pay attention to cash flow management, and reduce the proportion of credit.
Xi Kang, the executive director of the China Liquor Industry Association and the head of Fujian Longji Mingjiu Brand Management Co., Ltd., said that he is most concerned about how to retain existing customers, increase customers, and the stable and steady expansion of the core team, and put profits as the last consideration.
"At present, the biggest problem is not the product problem, but how to tap new customers and achieve new consumption scenarios. For us, we are most concerned about the manufacturer's support policy and increasing the customer experience. Zheng Dajie, general manager of Jinan Lixia Qianli Tea and Wine Center, said.
"Brand wine merchants who can carry out terminal system planning and detailed user management can firmly occupy their market position in the market." Du Zhiguo believes that the second- and third-tier products are the first to be eliminated under the economic downturn due to the lack of deep cultivation ability, and they are also the most seriously affected. Sauce and wine developers, second-batch merchants and reversers who mainly focus on wholesale have been greatly impacted. The investment in regional famous wines is very large, more than in previous years. This completes the user interception at the terminal, and the sniping force for the rough brand is very strong.
For wine merchants, how should they cope with the current cycle?
Yang Jingui believes that the current consumers take advantage of the economic downturn as an opportunity to take the initiative to choose to reduce consumer prices, save communication costs, and pay more attention to cost performance. For a long time in the future, the competition between liquor will enter the competition for end consumers, and this competition depends on poor service and poor execution, compared to whose service is more tempting and whose execution ability is stronger.
"The essence of the liquor industry should be the service industry, and increase customer stickiness through services. The way out for dealers in the future is to have the ability to reach the end consumer, not the ability to distribute goods. Yang Jingui said.
Du Zhiguo bluntly said that wine merchants can make some achievements in terms of supply support, brand sentiment, user mentality, channel conversion, and characteristic mode.