Hey, all the people who eat melons, have you heard? The little ancestor of Typhoon "Gemei" is doing something again! At midnight last night, it quietly landed on the coast of Nanao Township, Yilan County, Taiwan Province! Guess what a battle it brought this time?
I'm telling you, this is really no joke! The intensity of the "Gemei" little guy at the time of landfall was a strong typhoon! The maximum wind near the center is 15, 48 m/s! What is this concept? I'll do the math for you, and that's almost enough to blow an adult away! Moreover, the minimum air pressure in its center is only 945 hPa, which is like sucking the entire island of Taiwan in!
But ah, the most unexpected thing is that after this "Gemei" landed, it was like a chicken blood, running all the way! At 7 o'clock this morning, its center had already left Taiwan Island and entered the Taiwan Strait. This speed is even faster than the Flash! You say, did it eat something unclean in Taiwan, so it was in a hurry to find a toilet?
But that's not all! According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, this troublemaker also plans to make another second landing on the northeastern coast of Fujian this afternoon and night! What is this for? Do you think it's not fun to do it once, so you have to have a double play?
But ah, the most interesting thing is that from the cloud map, the central mountain range of Taiwan really teaches "Gemei" a lesson! It's like a stern teacher who taught this naughty student a hard lesson. And guess what? The core convection structure of "Gemei" has been completely destroyed! A huge convection hole appeared in the center, as if someone had punched a large hole. Now, its strength has been greatly reduced.
In today's "Gemei", the air pressure distribution is like a pan. The entire area around the center is a zone of low pressure, and the wind is concentrated in the periphery, but there is no wind and rain in the central area. Can you imagine? It's like a hollowed-out doughnut that still looks so tempting on the outside, but it's empty on the inside!
However, the most unpredictable thing is that from tomorrow, the remnant circulation of "Gemei" will turn westward to northward under the guidance of the subtropical high. What is this for? Could it be that I heard that the north has been too calm recently, so I plan to go to the north to stir up peace?
But it's not that simple! The latest numerical forecasts in Europe and the United States have shown a huge divergence in the path of the typhoon after its northward movement. European values insist that the typhoon will go all the way west, and will not completely turn north until it reaches Henan. The United States value has adjusted the path to the east, believing that it will go through eastern Henan, north-central Shandong and then Liaoning.
And guess what? According to the forecast of European values, this is a typical heavy rainfall path in the North China Plain! Because this path is almost close to the eastern part of Taihang Mountain, the terrain uplift caused by the Taihang Mountains will be very obvious. Heavy rainfall will occur in the northern part of Henan and the southwest of Hebei. The southeast of Beijing is affected by the topography of Yanshan Mountain, and there will also be heavy rainfall processes.
Judging from the rainfall forecast given by European values, there will be heavy to extremely heavy rain in northern Henan, southwest and northeast Hebei, southern Beijing, most of Tianjin, and western Liaoning, with a cumulative rainfall of 300-400 mm. What is this concept? I'll do the math for you, that's the equivalent of pouring water in a third of a swimming pool in these places!
But ah, the United States value doesn't think so. It believes that the typhoon will pass through eastern Henan, north-central Shandong and then enter Liaoning. In this way, the terrain caused by the uplift of the Taihang Mountains is completely avoided, and the rainfall center basically falls in the Bohai Sea. The North China Plain is dominated by moderate or heavy rain, and only the central part of Shandong Province has a small area of heavy rain or heavy rainfall.
You say, "Why are these two forecasts so different?" It's like watching two completely different movies! Now it can make it difficult for the people, which one should be believed?
In fact, the divergence between the two values is mainly focused on the forecast of the secondary high intensity in the later stage. European values believe that the large-scale high temperature in the south will fully rebound at the end of the month, and the remnant circulation of Gemei will continue to move westward under the impetus of the subtropical high. The United States value has strengthened the cold air activity in the north, believing that by early August, the subtropical high will basically not extend westward to control the southern part of the mainland, but only operate in the eastern coastal areas.
This overestimation of the subtropical high and cold air is already a common problem with these two traditional values. It is impossible to say who is more accurate now, and it depends on the results of further adjustments in the later stage. The current forecast is for reference only, don't take it as a sure thing!
But then again, have you noticed that the behavior of Typhoon "Gemei" this time is really unexpected? It first landed in Taiwan, then hurried to Fujian, and now plans to go north. It's like a grumpy kid running around and making the adults anxious!
You say, will "Gemei" go north this time, will it bring a trip to the north? Will it let the people of the north, who are accustomed to dry weather, also taste the taste of heavy rain?
By the way, I'll break the news at the end. I've heard that meteorologists have a headache right now! Because the behavior of "Gemei" is so unreasonable that their forecasting models are about to fail! But I haven't verified this news yet, so let's have fun listening to it.
Well, that's all for today's revelations. Remember to take care and don't be blown away by the typhoon! We'll talk next time! By the way, which path do you think "Gemei" will choose in the end? Is it the westbound route that the European values say, or the eastbound route that the United States values say? Let's wait and see! Perhaps, it will give us a big surprise and take a new path that has never been seen before!