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There are unpredictable circumstances in the sky, and people have good and bad luck. Blinken's carefully planned trip to Asia originally wanted to create a semi-encirclement of China, but he unexpectedly made a halfway way to bite the gold. This "Cheng Biting Jin" is none other than our northern neighbor - Mongolia.
This move of Mongolia was like a stone smashed into a calm lake, stirring up a thousand waves. Blinken probably never dreamed that the "fishing net" he had worked so hard to weave would be easily torn open by Mongolia. It's reminiscent of the old adage: plans can't keep up with change.
A few days ago, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken was making final preparations for an upcoming trip to Asia. The trip is ambitious, with six countries planned: Viet Nam, Laos, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore and Mongolia. At first glance, the choices of these countries may seem a bit chaotic, but a closer look reveals that they happen to be geographically forming a "semi-encirclement" posture against China.
The purpose of Blinken's trip can be described as Sima Zhao's heart, and everyone knows it. Although the United States's "Indo-Pacific Strategy" claims to be for regional peace and stability, its core goal is nothing more than to deal with China's rise and maintain United States' influence in the region. To put it bluntly, this visit is aimed at stabilizing United States' "basic market" in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, the world is unpredictable. Just as Blinken was ready to go, a series of political uncertainties emerged in the United States. Biden's sudden announcement of his withdrawal from the election caused a huge shock in Washington politics like a bombshell
Immediately afterwards, Vice President Harris took over the baton on an interim basis, a decision that caught the Democratic camp off guard.
At the same time, the Republican camp is not calm. Trump's approval ratings are rising, like a dark horse, running wild in the election. This sudden political storm undoubtedly cast a shadow on Blinken's trip to Asia. Blinken, who was originally full of confidence, is probably also sweating for the domestic situation at this moment.
The emergence of Trump, a businessman-politician, is like an uncertain factor, messing up the whole situation. He has recently been unexpectedly friendly towards China, not only praising the letter of condolence sent by the Chinese side, but also expressing his openness to Chinese car companies to build factories in United States. This series of moves made Blinken's original "tough on China" strategy a little embarrassing.
While Blinken was still struggling with these variables, Mongolia gave him a blow to the head. Mongolia Prime Minister Oyun Erden was not only successfully re-elected, but also met with Chinese Ambassador to Mongolia Shen Minjuan. This meeting was like a well-arranged diplomatic stage play, and every detail was full of profound meaning.
What Blinken did not expect was that 2024 would coincide with the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Mongolia, the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, and the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This series of anniversaries has undoubtedly brought Sino-Mongolian relations closer.
Mongolia's move is like adding a large spoonful of salt to Blinken's carefully prepared "coffee". Originally, he planned to use the visit to attract more countries to contain China, but now it seems that this plan may be greatly reduced. Blinken's mood at the moment is probably like carefully preparing for a performance, only to find that there are few audiences in the audience.
In addition to Mongolia, Blinken's other destinations on this trip are not monolithic. Laos, Viet Nam, and Singapore, while ostensibly welcoming the United States visit, are in fact reluctant to take sides in geopolitics. Instead, they want to strengthen cooperation with China.
Laos, as the rotating chair of ASEAN, will host the upcoming ASEAN Ministerial Meeting. The conference is like a big stage on which countries want to show their diplomatic talents. Blinken originally planned to take this opportunity to show his skills, but he did not expect to encounter a "soft nail". Although Laos politely welcomed United States' participation, it took a lukewarm attitude towards some of United States' proposals.
As an important country in Southeast Asia, Viet Nam has always maintained a delicate balance between China and the United States. Blinken's visit to Viet Nam was originally hoping to bring the United States closer to Vietnam, but Viet Nam does not seem to want to completely fall over to the side of United States.
As the financial center of Southeast Asia, Singapore has always pursued a pragmatic foreign policy. Although it has a good relationship with United States, it is also unwilling to offend China, a big neighbor. Blinken's visit to Singapore may not be able to get the promise he wants.
Even Japan and the Philippines, two traditional allies of the United States, are not as rosy as Blinken thinks. Although Japan cooperate with United States's "Indo-Pacific strategy" on the surface, it is also weighing the pros and cons in its heart. After all, the geographical location determines that Japan cannot completely confront China.
As for the Philippines, while ostensibly close to United States, it is also trying to find a balance between China and the United States. After Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos came to power, although he showed pro-US tendencies on certain issues, he still hoped to maintain good relations with China in economic cooperation and other aspects.
Another important purpose of Blinken's trip is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting. However, so far, the Chinese side has not given a clear response. This uncertainty has undoubtedly added more variables to Blinken's trip to Asia.
Blinken's trip was far more difficult than he expected, and he originally wanted to use the visit to rebuild United States' influence in the Asia-Pacific region, but he did not expect to encounter so many "obstacles". This can't help but remind people of the old saying: everything is foreseen, and everything is not foreseen. Blinken's experience was like an elaborate chess game, only to find that his opponent's every move was unexpected.
Blinken's experience has also taught us a vivid diplomatic lesson. In complex international relations, relying solely on the strategy of "containment" will not work. Each country has its own interests, and it is impossible to act in full accordance with the wishes of a particular power. Just like Mongolia, although it is geographically close to China, it does not mean that it will become a link in the "encirclement" of United States.
On the other hand, this incident also reflects the success of China's diplomacy. Through years of good-neighborly and friendly policies, China has established a good network of relations among its neighboring countries. This is like an invisible "protective net" that makes it difficult for the United States' "encirclement" strategy to work.
In general, this incident once again proves that international relations is a complex art. It's not simply black and white, but it's full of all sorts of delicate balances. Blinken's "semi-encirclement" plan failed precisely because he underestimated the importance of this balance. International relations are like a multi-party chess game, and every move may affect the direction of the entire situation.
As a bystander, we may expect that after Blinken's trip to Asia, United States' foreign policy will be adjusted to consider more of the actual interests of various countries rather than blindly pursuing so-called "strategic advantages." Only in this way can we truly achieve peace and stability in the region. It's like a family, and only when every member is respected and cared for, can the family be truly harmonious and happy.
Reference: European Network2024-07-23 09:27 - Blinken will launch a six-nation tour in Asia to strengthen alliances and create deterrence
China Review Network - China Review Attention: Blinken walks around China and wants to talk to China
Shangguan News2024-07-21 21:19 -- Opening of ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meetings: "Silent Diplomacy", "Cooperation and Peace" and "Bilateral Singing" have attracted attention