preface
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is really coming to an end! On July 21, United States President Joe Biden announced that he would withdraw from the United States election and would no longer run for United States president. On the same day, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said he could negotiate a truce with Putin.
On July 22, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the mainland announced that Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba will visit China from July 23 to 26.
It is obviously no coincidence that these events have happened one after another. So why did Zelensky suddenly change his mind and was willing to really negotiate with Russia, and what was the purpose of the visit of the Ukraine Foreign Minister to China?
The situation on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield
Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the relationship between Russia and Ukraine has completely broken down. The two sides are fighting on the battlefield, and the situation between Russia and Ukraine is becoming more and more tense.
Although Russia President Vladimir Putin has long shown his willingness to negotiate with Ukraine, Zelensky is not willing to negotiate peace. Because of the military aid of Western countries, Zelensky intends to completely defeat Russia on the battlefield.
In order to show his resolute attitude, Zelensky even did not hesitate to revise domestic laws and regulations, and personally signed a decree not to negotiate peace with Putin, completely blocking his own back road.
Source: Global Times July 22, 2024 – Zelensky: It is possible to negotiate with Putin
Although Russia did not defeat Ukraine at the beginning, after a series of adjustments, their strong strength as the "top three in the world" was demonstrated. A strong industrial base and countless weapons and equipment are the strength to support the game between Russia and Western countries.
Despite the sanctions imposed by many countries, Russia, as a "fighting nation", has a momentum of "not admitting defeat". They may be defeated, but they will not be intimidated.
With the passage of time, the gap between Russia and Ukraine began to slowly show, although Russia is also struggling to support, but the situation is much better, and Ukraine has always relied on the assistance of other countries to support, they gradually unable to stand.
But Zelensky does not want to give up, you know, his presidential term has long expired, and he only launched a wartime policy to postpone the elections in Ukraine. Once the war is over, the presidential election in Ukraine will have to begin, and with his performance at that time, it is estimated that there will not be any good ending.
So, it's not that Zelensky can't see the situation clearly, he just doesn't want to face reality. Whether it is the "peace treaty" he proposed or the so-called "peace summit" convened by Western countries, it is just to increase his "bargaining chips."
Today's Russian army is advancing in Ukraine, capturing many Ukraine cities, and Russia may add 200,000 to 300,000 troops in the coming months. If Western countries do not take any strong measures, then the defeat of Ukraine may only be a matter of time.
Source: Global Times July 19, 2024 – Ukraine's defense minister said the country was surrounded by 500,000 Russian troops
In this case, Putin still put forward conditions for peace talks to the Ukraine side. As the dominant party, Russia's conditions are naturally harsh in the eyes of Ukraine, but after all, Russia's wars in recent years cannot be fought in vain, and the winner always has some benefits.
Looking at Putin's conditions, Zelensky still doesn't want to accept it, he still wants to wait for the turnaround to come. But in the past two days, Zelensky's attitude has changed dramatically.
The reason for Zelensky's "change of heart".
This year is the year of the general election in the United States. As the world's largest country, the change of United States president is very important for many countries, because the attitude of different United States presidents towards some countries is also very different.
In the past few years of Biden's administration, the situation in United States has not only gotten better, but worse, which has made United States people very dissatisfied with the Biden administration. By contrast, Trump looks more capable than Biden.
If Trump only gained some advantages in the televised debate, then after the assassination, Trump's advantage gradually turned into a "victory".
Now Trump is deeply loved by the United States people, and many neutral people have also fallen to him. The fact that a presidential candidate has such a high approval rating during the campaign phase is rare in the history of United States.
In view of this situation, no matter what Biden does, it is unlikely that he will "turn the tables", so he decisively chose to "protect himself".
On July 21, United States President Joe Biden announced that he would withdraw from the presidential race and support Vice President Harris in the election.
Source: Global Times July 22, 2024 - Biden withdraws from the election, and many voices are spoken!
Biden's withdrawal has caused a huge storm around the world, and the biggest impact is Ukraine.
On the day Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky openly said in an interview with the media that he was willing to hold "peace talks" with Russia President Putin and invited Russia to participate in the next "peace summit".
It can be said that Zelensky's attitude has changed 180 degrees. There are many reasons for his change of attitude, but Biden's withdrawal from the election became "the last straw that broke the camel's back."
One of the biggest differences between Biden and Trump is their attitude toward Russia. Trump has long believed that United States should have a good relationship with Russia, and United States has done so during his administration. So much so that Trump's last defeat was because of the "Russian collusion" scandal.
Source: Xinhuanet May 11, 2017 - Trump stressed his desire for better relations between the United States and Russia
And Biden is determined to resolutely suppress Russia. Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, United States has provided tens of billions of military aid to Ukraine, and not only that, but the assistance of European countries to Ukraine is also because of this United States.
Long before the start of the United States election, Trump said that United States should not confront Russia, and now he has even said that he will mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine after he is elected.
Source: Red Star News July 20, 2024 – Trump has spoken with Zelensky, promising to "end the Russia-Ukraine conflict"
Once United States stop providing assistance to Ukraine, then Western countries will certainly follow the pace of United States. When the time comes, what will Ukraine take to fight Russia.
Now Trump is "in the limelight", and the probability of him winning the election is very high, and Biden's withdrawal from the election has further increased this probability.
Therefore, in this case, Ukraine's choice of "peace talks" with Russia is already the last choice, and they no longer have the opportunity to put forward conditions.
If this opportunity cannot be seized, Ukraine will definitely fall into a situation of "running out of ammunition and food" at that time.
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister visited China to seek help
Just after Zelensky announced that he could negotiate with Russia, on July 22, Ukraine said they would send a foreign minister to visit China. At this juncture, the purpose of Ukraine's visit to China is obvious, and it must be inseparable from the issue of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations.
Source: Qingpupil Perspective July 22, 2024 – Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba will visit China
Although Zelensky has made some inappropriate remarks about China in some international conferences. But they can't deny that China has a key role to play in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, many countries in the world have begun to take sides, they either support Ukraine or Russia. China's neutrality is a sensible approach.
Today, China should be one of the few countries in the world that maintains good relations with both Russia and Ukraine, so China should be the best "intermediary" to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. At this point, both Russia and Ukraine should be recognized.
Now Zelensky has a very "headache" problem that urgently needs China's help to solve, that is, Russia does not want to hold peace talks with Ukraine.
A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia said: The question of who should do what is certainly not up to Zelensky to decide. What's more, it is still directing Russia. He shouldn't even think so.
Source: Xinmin Evening News July 23, 2024 - On the occasion of Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba's visit to China, Zelensky said that he could negotiate with Putin
Some time ago, Putin publicly said that Zelensky is no longer the legitimate president of Ukraine, and even if Russia wants to hold peace talks, it needs to do so with the legitimate Ukraine government.
In addition, now Russia has a great advantage on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, even if it really wants to talk, Russia wants to get more benefits, after all, this time and that time.
In addition to wanting China to act as an intermediary between them, Ukraine's visit to China has another purpose, that is, to let China pull them in the economic aspect.
At the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine issued a large number of government bonds in order to deal with Russia. They signed an agreement with bondholders that Ukraine could suspend debt payments until August 1 of this year.
Source: Financial Circles July 19, 2024 – Ukraine restarts negotiations with creditors on a $20 billion debt restructuring
Seeing that the debt is about to mature, but Ukraine has been fighting for more than 2 years and simply cannot come up with money to repay the debt. So they began to negotiate with bondholders to try that they could complete the debt restructuring.
According to the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, Ukraine still has nearly $20 billion in international bonds to repay, and if the debt restructuring cannot be completed, then by August 1, they will need $35 million just to pay interest, which they will definitely not be able to come up with.
You know, in the past two years, China and Ukraine have maintained normal trade exchanges, and China has become their largest importer. Now, if Ukraine wants to ease its economic woes, it can only maintain strong trade relations with China.
If Russia and Ukraine really sit down to negotiate this time, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has lasted for more than two years, will officially come to an end.
At that time, if Ukraine wants to complete national reconstruction and economic rejuvenation, it must need the help of other countries, and we are the best partner to work with.
But that's all for later. Ukraine's top priority should be to enter into peace talks with Russia as soon as possible and stop this war. China's involvement should play a positive role in ending the war.
epilogue
With the changes in the international situation, new variables have emerged in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and now, Zelensky wants to seek negotiations with Russia, which is a good turn.
However, if Ukraine wants to seek help from China, it will depend on their performance. If they can get rid of the control of Western countries and maintain a correct attitude on China-related issues, then I believe we will not hesitate to pull them along.