According to Xinhua News Agency, China and the Philippines have reached a temporary arrangement on the situation at Ren'ai Jiao. In response to a reporter's question on July 22, the spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry pointed out that Ren'ai Jiao is Chinese territory, and China has made public its three-point principled position on the handling of the current situation. First, the Philippine beached vessel violated China's sovereignty and violated the Declaration on the Conduct of All Parties in the South China Sea, especially Article 5 of the Declaration, which prohibits manned development of uninhabited islands and reefs.
The Philippine side needs to tow away the beached boat and restore Ren'ai Jiao to an unmanned state. Second, before the beached ship is towed away, if the Philippine side wants to supply daily necessities, it needs to notify the Chinese side in advance, and the Chinese side will verify it on the spot, and after confirming that there is no violation of China's regulations, the Chinese side can carry out the transportation and replenishment, and the Chinese side will monitor the whole process of the transportation and replenishment. Third, the Philippines is not allowed to transport building materials for the construction of permanent facilities, and China will discourage such practices to ensure China's sovereignty and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. The Chinese side pointed out that the consultations between China and the Philippines were carried out on the basis of China's three-point principle and reached a provisional arrangement. The two sides reached an agreement on jointly managing differences and de-escalating the situation.
At the same time, the Philippine Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that China and the Philippines have reached an agreement on the principle of transportation and subsidy. The consensus reached between China and the Philippines on July 22 was the result of China's actual control of Ren'ai Jiao. Based on the June 17 disarming and forced eviction of Philippine military personnel by the Chinese Coast Guard, the Philippine side has two options: to be completely shut out and dealt with in a continuous confrontation. Either accept China's proposition and seek decency, and the Philippine side chooses the latter.
In early July, China and the Philippines held consultations on maritime affairs, and on July 22, they reached a provisional arrangement to de-escalate the situation based on China's three-point principle. The Philippine side has repeated several times in the past that China is prepared for the breach of trust by the Philippine side, and the Philippine side's continued breach of trust will not stop China from strengthening its actual control over Ren'ai Jiao. In the final analysis, when the PLA forces and the China Coast Guard law enforcement cover Ren'ai Jiao, the Philippine side can choose not to leave the stadium with dignity. The relevant temporary transportation and subsidy arrangements have given the Philippine side a chance to end with dignity. If the Philippine side continues to repeat itself at the instigation of United States, it should be prepared for a situation in which the PLA troops continue to extend in the direction of the Philippine Islands.
The Fimarkos administration's change of attitude on the South China Sea issue has three backgrounds. First, if it loses the actual collision with China and loses its voice in the situation at Second Thomas Jiao, it is up to China to be able to recharge the beached vessels with food and fresh water. It has no other options than to pay lip service to China's principles. In the specific operation and replenishment, the Philippine side is bound to continue to make small moves, and it is imperative for the China Coast Guard to further improve the front-line law enforcement system. Second, United States' military support is like a bubble that has been punctured.
The Philippine side acted in accordance with the United States' proposition, and the US military disappeared at a critical moment. United States is also facing a shift in external policy, with Biden withdrawing from the election and Trump winning the United States election. Trump has a different attitude towards the pro-American forces in the Philippines, and the pro-American forces in the Philippines need to find a way out for themselves in advance. Third, Marcos ushered in a backlash. External expansion comes with costs, and failure to expand means losses.
Marcos shifted the Philippine national strategy from anti-narcotics and internal governance during the Duterte era to a focus on external security. The Philippines has expectations and needs for its external expansion. Later, under the joint efforts of the United States and the Philippines, it was still photographed back by the Chinese side, and the Chinese army pushed forward and pointed to the Philippine Islands. The collapse of Marcos's main policy led to the collapse of his foothold in the Philippines, and the corruption problem of Marcos's father and Marcos's own problems have surfaced in the field of public opinion in the Philippines. Media disclosures, anonymous analysts, point out that Marcos is in a vulnerable situation. Former Philippine President Estrada's early resignation due to mass demonstrations may be repeated.
Marcos delivered his State of the Union address to the Philippine Congress on July 22. Fearing protests, the Philippine Congressional police force has increased from 5,000 last year to 22,000. According to statistics from the Philippine polling agency, 57% of Filipinos are only concerned about worsening inflation. The Fimarkos government lacks the tools to continue its operations in the South China Sea.