【Zheshang Bank FICC · Precious Metals】Precious Metals Market Weekly Report (July 15, 2024-July 19, 2024) ###
Market review
2024/7/15 -2024/7/19 Market Situation
Last week, spot gold opened at $2,413 per ounce and touched as low as $2,401.57 per ounce; Spot silver opened at $30.78 an ounce and closed at $29.38. United States retail sales for June, which were released last week, rose zero month-on-month, higher than expectations of -0.3%. However, Fed officials signaled that interest rate cuts were one step closer, market expectations continued to rise, and the retreat in US Treasury yields and the dollar index strengthened precious metals, and gold prices hit record highs, rising as high as $2,482 an ounce. The market has fully priced in the expectation of interest rate cuts, and has begun to gradually turn into recession trading, copper and other non-ferrous metals have broken downward, so gold and silver prices fell sharply on Friday, gold fell to 2400, silver fell to around 29.
Next week, focus on the United States Q2 GDP data, if it shows that the economic cooling trend is obvious, will strengthen the Fed's expectations of interest rate cuts, and also need to focus on the United States June core PCE data, if the inflation cooling trend does not change, it will be further determined that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, forming some support for gold and silver prices. Focus on the $2,400 / ounce integer mark.
Overseas ETF holdings
SPDR Gold ETF Holdings
According to statistics from SPDRGoldTrust, the largest gold listed exchange-traded fund (ETF), as of 2024-07-19, the holdings were 840.01 tons, with a cumulative net increase of 4.92 tons last week.
iShares白银ETF（SLV）持仓情况
As of 2024-07-19, iShares Silver ETF held 13,678.69 tonnes of silver, with a net increase of 195.95 tonnes last week.
CFTC gold holdings
Source: wind CFTC silver holdings
Source: wind
Last week, gold ETFs added net positions to CFTC, while silver ETFs added net positions but CFTC net decreased. It shows that foreign investors have a strong intention to buy gold, and the recent performance of gold is stronger than that of silver, so it is recommended that investors can focus on gold rising trading opportunities.
Discount situation
Last week, the basis of gold futures rose and fell, reaching a maximum of 1.9 yuan/gram, with a premium of 4.29%, and closed at 1.34 yuan/gram, with a premium of 3.22%. In the context of the challenge of the continuous overpayment of deferred fees, it is recommended that investors fully seize the opportunity of unilateral rise and focus on the opportunity to narrow the futures and spots.
Discount of the main contract and spot premium of Shanghai Gold (as of July 19, 2024)
Last week, the basis of silver futures rose and fell, reaching a maximum of 12 yuan/kg, with a premium of 1.87%, and closed at 7 yuan/kg, with a premium of 1.23%. Recently, futures buying has driven the futures and spot spreads to be obvious, coupled with the unilateral decline and the increase in spot buying, resulting in the continuous decline of the futures and spot spreads. It is recommended that investors fully capture swing trading opportunities and focus on futures and spot narrow trading opportunities.
Shanghai Bank's main contract and spot premium (as of July 19, 2024)
Domestic and foreign spreads
Last week, the international gold price rose sharply, and domestic investors sold to take profit resolutely, while in the process of falling, domestic investment was greatly affected by the same price, and the willingness to sell was stronger, resulting in the continuous decline of the domestic and foreign price difference between gold and foreign prices. In addition, it is not excluded that some institutional stop-losses will accelerate the decline of the spread. The above situations are short-term shocks, and the interest rate differential between China and the United States will exist for a long time in the future, so it is recommended that traders take a wide position on dips.
Spread between domestic and foreign gold prices (as of July 19, 2024)
Last week, as in the case of gold, domestic investors were dragged down more obviously by the decline in commodities, and the spread between the incoming and outgoing prices of silver continued to fall. It is also recommended that investors take a wide position on dips.
Silver onshore and offshore spreads (as of July 19, 2024)
Late delivery situation
Last week, Ag (T+D) bulls prevailed, Au (T+D) and mAu (T+D) bears prevailed, but Au (T+D) swayed. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the direction of Au (T+D) deferral, and the bullish strength or marginal enhancement. Silver deferred fees are affected by the high basis of futures and spot positive forces, and deferred fees are expected to continue to be dominated by bulls.