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preface
On July 13, the attack on Trump caused quite a stir and became a hot topic of public opinion in the past few days. However, after this incident, his approval rating has skyrocketed significantly.
However, it is worth paying attention to what changes will occur in United States' domestic and foreign policies after Trump takes office, especially what is the attitude towards China and how the China policy changes.
Some professionals said that if Trump comes to power again, there is a high probability that Sino-US relations will move towards a comprehensive decoupling.
Trump has a win
In the wake of the shooting, support for Trump has risen again, an incident that not only highlights Trump's unique position in the hearts of the people, but also further strengthens his influence in the political arena.
After being shot, he still calmly raised his fist and shouted fighting, just like the Goddess of Victory and the world-famous painting "Freedom Leads the People", all kinds of elements are gathered.
With such a photo, I feel that Trump is about to become a god, and this photo has become a "symbol of strength" in the hearts of Trump supporters.
In this way, Trump's victory seems to be in doubt. Judging from the special national conditions of the United States now, no matter who runs with Biden, they will have a higher support rate than Biden.
With great power competition between China, the United States and Russia on the one hand, and a relatively more complete liberal democratic voting system on the other, most people in United States now hope to get out of the existing undesirable situation under Biden's administration and be able to truly improve their conditions.
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But the thing to consider is that whoever is elected will see China as a key adversary, which is not really good for us. What Trump is like, just look at the time he was elected before, and I am afraid that the relationship between China and the United States will begin to move towards comprehensive decoupling.
Trump's claims
United States the election interval of the Republican convention is the same as the interval of the presidential election, which is every four years, which is also to show everyone some of the Republican Party's governing philosophy during the presidential election, so as to gain higher support.
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Since the beginning of reform and opening up, China-US relations have undergone an evolution from confrontation to cooperation and from competition to win-win results.
During the Obama administration, China and the United States carried out extensive and in-depth cooperation in many fields such as economy and trade, science and technology, and culture, and bilateral trade volume continued to grow, and people-to-people exchanges became more frequent.
However, with the complexity and change of the international situation and the decline of the strength of China and the United States, the relationship between the two countries is also facing new challenges and uncertainties.
Before Trump took office, frictions and disputes between China and the United States in the economic and trade fields had begun to gradually increase, and issues such as trade imbalance had become the crux of the relationship between the two countries.
In addition, the differences between the two countries in terms of ideology, political system, and values have become increasingly prominent, resulting in a considerable impact on mutual trust and cooperation between the two countries in the political field.
The conservatism that the Republican Party mainly advocates may be seen in the United States as more inclined to internal social stability, more emphasis on traditional values, and emphasis on cultural continuity.
The same is true of Trump's policy proposition, which plans to increase the blocking and removal of illegal immigrants in order to make the social environment in the United States more stable.
There are still many people who smuggle people to United States, they have no legal status, they cannot find normal jobs, and most of them can only live on the streets, which has a great impact on social security.
On the economic front, Trump also plans to make a lot of changes, and United States inflation has been high and the fiscal deficit is high.
He believes that lifting restrictions on energy production and allowing United States' energy supply to become the largest energy supplier can alleviate the current inflation problem.
And support the development of United States domestic low-end manufacturing industry, prohibit companies from outsourcing part of the low-end manufacturing business to other countries to undertake, can not only take care of the development of some high-tech technology, in order to get more benefits to save labor costs, and abandon the fundamental manufacturing foundation.
The mainland is the only country in the world with a full industrial manufacturing system, and many foreign products will appear on the mainland to a greater or lesser extent, and it is precisely because of this that the confrontation between China and the United States has been going on for many years, and United States still has not bargained too much.
The development of low-end manufacturing can also provide jobs for many unemployed people, increase the employment rate of United States to a certain extent, and at the same time limit China's industrial development in United States.
At the same time, the focus of Trump's international plans has begun to return to Asia, especially the mainland has become the primary object of attention.
First of all, he advocated stopping the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and easing NATO's relations with Russia, but this matter also depends on whether Ukraine agrees or not, and it is difficult to determine the feasibility.
Second, the Trump team will not settle down on the trade war, but will only intensify, especially in Asia.
In fact United States decoupling and breaking the chain with China has been mentioned and emphasized many times before Biden took office, but after Biden came to power and understood the real situation between China and the United States, he changed his words to "have no intention of decoupling from China", which has temporarily become the current semi-decoupling state.
United States is too dependent on Chinese products and resources, and if it is directly decoupled, it will only be them who are unlucky.
However, whether it is Biden or Trump, the general direction of their plans for China has not changed much, and Trump's approach may be more thorough.
Therefore, if Trump comes to power again, the direction of adjustment of his economic and trade policies will undoubtedly affect the nerves of the global economy.
Looking back at the economic and trade policies of the Trump administration before taking office, the "United States First" principle advocated by it has made waves in the global trading system.
If Trump is in power again, his economic and trade policies may be more aggressive, especially in terms of trade with China, and it is very likely that the two countries will face a complete decoupling.
The impact of decoupling
The risk of full decoupling caused by Trump's China policy will cause significant damage to the economic interests of both China and the United States.
As one of the largest developing countries in the world, China, with its huge market and abundant resources, has always been a popular choice for global investors.
However, under the influence of Trump's China policy, many foreign investors are also concerned about China's investment environment and will reduce their investment in China.
This will not only affect the growth momentum of China's economy, but also weaken the potential for cooperation between China and the United States in the field of investment.
Globalization is an irreversible trend, and any attempt to defend one's own interests through comprehensive decoupling will come at a huge cost.
As one of the world's two largest economies, the loss of economic interests of China and the United States will not only affect their own development, but also have a profound impact on the global economy.
But United States is not what it used to be, but China is not what it used to be.
In Go, there is a tactic called in, where one side invades the other's sphere of influence. In the face of penetration, there are three ways to deal with it: one is to go up, which is called top or touch; One is called standing, erecting a wall for defense; One is called demolition, moving in the other direction to open up new space for development.
Sino-US relations can be compared to this Go tactic, in the face of United States suppression, China's choice of the Belt and Road is to dismantle, in order to open up new space for development.
The Belt and Road Initiative is not simply a search for economic benefits, but also a strategic layout with foresight.
It connects countries to form a huge economic community, which not only promotes trade exchanges, but also promotes cooperation in infrastructure construction, cultural exchanges and other fields. This model of cooperation benefits the participating countries and achieves mutual benefit and win-win results.
epilogue
Chinese netizens summed up the two men by saying: Trump is the real villain, while Biden is a hypocrite.
Even though Trump is active on the platform, he often brings a lot of memes and fun to everyone, and provides Chinese netizens with a lot of after-dinner topics, but his economic attacks on China are also real, and he instantly feels that he is not cute.
So who do you think is better on stage?
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