There is a saying in the stock market that "satisfying the decline is bullish, and satisfying the rise is bearish". What does this mean? The point is that if the stock market has not fallen thoroughly, even if it is good, the trend will still fall. If it rises too much, even if it is favorable, the three major stock indexes will not rise. If it falls too much, it will rise, and if it rises too much, it will fall, which is the unchanging truth of A-shares.
At present, the trend of A-shares seems to be good news, whether it is a big good news or a small good, it is all in a strong decline. Even if there is a rebound every time, it will rise slowly and fall fast, what is the situation? That is, the market has not fallen through, and the decline is not satisfied.
Look at the declining sectors, which are already new lows and then new lows, and some sectors have hit new lows for several years, even if the valuation is reasonable, there is no way to go up. If there is bad news, the plates will fall more sharply one by one. This kind of market, if you want to rise sharply, you have to stay up, if you want not to fall, you haven't met the conditions for rising, and you can't rise at all.
Tuesday is about to open, so get ready, a big change is likely to be brewing?
Let's talk about 1 detail, have you found that the current transaction has been several trading days, and it has been below 600 billion. With this kind of transaction, it is not easy to rise sharply. There is no large trading volume, that is, many people have no enthusiasm for trading, everyone is watching the show, how can A shares rise sharply?
Previously, in April, the transactions were all trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,100 points, and it was difficult to fall. Now the transaction is very different, there is no capital to go up, and it is useless to empty the index. If there is a trillion yuan in trading, this position is bullish, and the current turnover is only 600 billion yuan, and A-shares will fall.
In this kind of place, even if you shout that it will rise, there is no big deal, even if it is the bottom of history now, you will have to smash the market again in the short term. Peony's analysis is that the transaction is not good, the track is falling non-stop, all signs indicate that 2900 points may not be able to hold, if it falls below 2900 points, 2800 points are estimated to be seen.
There are two predictions for the follow-up trend of peony. First, the three major stock indexes fell to this year's lows. After the end of the decline, a wave of violent rallies returned. The reason for this rise is that A-shares have fallen for too long, and the trend has begun to rebound technically, and after the rebound has risen sharply, the second wave of decline this year is almost over. The first wave of decline was in January of this year, and the second wave is the current one.
Second, if it falls below 2900 points once, the trend will start to rise without breaking or standing. But Peony found that it seemed to be difficult to fall below 2,900 points and rise without breaking or standing. Why? Because the decline of A-shares is unusual, most sectors this year have not even rebounded to a new low, and history has not seen this kind of non-stop rhythm, it is estimated that the bears are too strong, and it is difficult to end the decline in the short term.
In the follow-up trend, Peony feels that it will be the second kind of decline, but now after the bearish price breaks through 2900 points, will it rise in volume, and it will be in vain if there is no increase in volume. If you think about it, you can know that a stock market that wants to be pushed up by funds, and there is no volume of transactions, and the decline must be satisfied before the smashing trend can end.
So, Tuesday is about to open, so get ready for a big change to be brewing. Be careful that the Shanghai Composite Index falls below 2,900 points, and it will rise if it falls through.
It's still boiling now, this year's trend feels similar to 2022, although this year's A-shares are at the bottom, but there is no bottom to rise, and it is necessary to survive the rise to have a return on investment.
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