According to comprehensive domestic media reports, on July 7, local time, the second round of the French National Assembly election ended.
French President Emmanuel Macron's early dissolution of parliament and the holding of congressional elections are in itself a means used by Macron to block the rise of right-wing forces in France. But he did not expect that the French left-wing party coalition "New Popular Front" would go down the mountain and pick peaches, and stand out in the direct competition between the powerful right-wing party National Alliance and the ruling European Baath Party, and become a big dark horse.
According to the results of the vote count, the far-right National Alliance, which is the most likely to win the parliamentary elections, won only 143 seats, while the left-wing coalition won 182 seats, and Macron's ruling Baath Party and the centrist coalition "together" won 163 seats. Finally, the right-wing Republicans have 68 seats, while the rest of the parties have 21 seats.
Macron and Le Pen
According to a report by CNN, after the results were released, the Elysee Palace in Paris issued a statement saying that it respects the new election results and respects the common choice of the French people. Mélenchon, the leader of the French Syriza coalition, said that a wave of citizen mobilization had swept in, and the latest poll results had relieved most French people, leaving the far right unable to dominate the entire parliament and avoid the worst-case scenario. But Le Pen, the leader of the National Rassembled, was not optimistic about the new National Assembly, threatening that the victory of the National Alliance had only been postponed.
A careful analysis of the direction of this election shows that the victory of the "New Popular Front" in this election was not an accident. The ultimate purpose of this parliamentary election is actually to suppress the rise of the far-right forces in order to strike at the National Alliance, which performed brilliantly in the European Parliament elections.
In the first round of parliamentary elections, the far-right National Alliance took the lead, and if no measures were taken, Macron's plan would be in vain, so under the pressure of the far-right, the "New Popular Front" cooperated with the ruling Ba'ath Party, and even adopted the policy of "abandoning the guarantee", that is, the European Baath Party and the New Popular Front competed for the same seat for the two party candidates, and the inferior side abstained, so as to gain more support for the center-right Ba'ath Party and the left to counter the far-right forces. Throughout the election period, more than 200 members of the European Baath Party and the New Popular Front (NPF) "waived" to ensure that the right-wing forces could not come to power, which was the key reason why the National Alliance won only the fewest seats despite its high approval ratings.
Mei Langxiong
However, although this prevented the far-right from taking control of the French parliament, it also caused Macron's European Baath Party to be counterattacked. Macron has been trying his best to create an image within the French political arena, that is, the European Baath Party he leads is the core force to stop the French far-right forces, when the European Baath Party is defined as the only option to stop the far-right forces, this has also led to a huge gap between the European Baath Party and the National Alliance, but it has made the political struggle between the European Baath Party and the National Alliance to the extreme, which makes the "New Popular Front", which is itself a left, look more like a centrist. Macron's centrist party, on the other hand, is more of a left-wing party.
However, it should be noted that before this parliamentary election, the European Baath Party had said that it would never form a government with the "New Popular Front", and after the election, the winning "New Popular Front" also expressed the idea that it would not join forces with the Baath Party. So after the results of this election are announced, where will the European Baath Party go from here?
If the Baath Party led by Macron and the "New Popular Front" cannot form a government, and the European Baath Party does not get half of the seats in the parliament, this means that France will enter the era of "Romance of the Three Kingdoms", under the tripartite struggle, Macron will be constrained by the French National Assembly in the next three years or so in power, and some policies will be difficult to implement, after all, in the design of the French political system, the National Assembly plays a greater role in the economy and domestic affairs, The president, on the other hand, wields considerable influence in foreign and defense policy.
In addition, the French left-wing "New Popular Front" has achieved the greatest victory, which is not a bad thing for China, and even has a certain benefit. This is because France's "New Popular Front," as a left-wing political party, has a significantly softer attitude on China-related issues than the center-right and far-right, and Mélenchon, the leader of the left-wing coalition forces, has made many friendly remarks about China in the past, resulting in him being regarded as a "pro-China faction" by European anti-China forces.
For example, in 2022, when Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi "visited Taiwan", Mélenchon posted through his personal social platform that Pelosi's "visit to Taiwan" was a provocation against China. He stressed that since the time of Charles de Gaulle, France has recognized the "one China" policy, China is also a member of the UN Security Council, and Taiwan is part of China.
With regard to its China policy, he has always advocated that France's China policy should not be influenced by the United States, and that it should not follow the example of the United States in its role as the world's policeman and arbitrarily interfere in the internal affairs of other countries.
Sino-French relations
In addition, Mélenchon did not want France to participate in the US strategy of encircling China. He believes that after China's tremendous development, especially after it is about to replace the United States as the world's number one power, the United States has begun to say that China threatens "freedom" and "democracy," but I am afraid that even the Americans themselves do not know what kind of "freedom" this is.
In addition, Mélenchon has also criticized the monetary policy of the United States, saying that the United States can print as much as it wants, and then use these currencies to buy raw materials, buy oil, and buy minerals. That's why the United States is going to defend this "freedom" with weapons, distorting the market, that's what they use to fool the Europeans.
From this point of view, in the future, under the three-legged power of the French Congress, under the checks and balances of the left, the French government may become softer in its China policy in the future.