The global stock market is busy hitting record highs, pushing up wave after wave, rising to 40,000 points, 80,000 points! Only our A-shares are still fighting around 3,000 points, and the 3,000-point defense war has been waged for more than ten years, tossing the market and investors all over the body.
Taking the recent period as an example, the peripheral stock market has indeed continued to hit record highs, while A-shares can't even stand at 3,000 points, and almost every day they are busy dropping individual stocks and cutting leeks, which has led to the collapse of investors' internal factors; Just when investors were close to collapse, A-shares bottomed out on Friday and rose to "appease" investors, and at the same time, the securities market ushered in three important news over the weekend to escort the A-share surge next week?
News 1: Six ministries and commissions jointly issued new regulations on punishing and preventing financial fraud
The China Securities Regulatory Commission and six other ministries and commissions jointly issued a working opinion, which involves 17 measures, focusing on the following three points:
1. Strengthen and crack down on financial fraud in the capital market;
2. Increase the penalty amount for fraudulent listing, and increase the penalty amount to 1 time of the raised funds;
3. The penalties for illegal disclosure have also been significantly increased to 10 million yuan and 5 million yuan.
News 2: Multiple industries are good together
The National Standing Committee meeting was held over the weekend, and the meeting released a number of industry benefits, mainly involving innovative drugs, digital economy, western development and Tianjin Binhai New Area. Among them, the biggest benefit is to support the whole chain to support the adoption of the policy of innovative drugs, and tomorrow related concept stocks will inevitably get the hype of funds.
News 3: The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have increased
Over the weekend, the United States released the non-farm data for June, and the growth rate has slowed down significantly, and the growth rate has declined for several months, which will force the Fed to raise expectations for interest rate cuts; You must know that the global capital market is waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and once the interest rate is cut, it will inevitably constitute a major positive for the global capital market.
Investors are boiling, and tomorrow A-shares will rise sharply?
With the bottoming out of A-shares on Friday and the three good news over the weekend, will A-shares rise sharply tomorrow?
In fact, it is unrealistic to want A-shares to rise sharply tomorrow, because A-shares simply do not have the conditions and motivation to rise sharply; In addition, A-shares are still in the process of periodic adjustment, and the good news in the downward trend will also become negative news, and it is difficult to reverse the current downward trend of A-shares, so it cannot rise sharply tomorrow.
If you really want A-shares to rise sharply tomorrow, unless you have to meet the following conditions and motivations, no matter how good the good news is, it is useless:
First, high-frequency quantification and refinancing have been banned, which means that all short-selling forces will be canceled and longs will be unanimously achieved.
Second: the national team will take action and start the financial, cyclical and wine-making weighted stocks, which will inevitably rise sharply as soon as the market rises.
Third: incremental funds run into the market, the current volume of A-share Shanghai and Shenzhen markets can shrink to around 580 billion, the amount of energy is seriously insufficient, and the amount of energy must reach more than 1 trillion to have the momentum to rise.
Fourth: stop falling and reversing, similar to the current three major indexes are still in a downward trend, and must stop falling in time to send a reversal signal.
The above four points are the conditions and motivation for A-shares to rise sharply tomorrow, and none of the current conditions of A-shares are met, and the weakness of A-shares will not be reversed because of the three important news.
It can be inferred from this that it is impossible for A-shares to rise sharply tomorrow, and at most a structural temptation market will be staged, calling on investors to be cautious and rational about the trend of A-shares tomorrow.