We get straight to the point, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Kames recently expressed a firm position through the media, that is, Poland will not send troops to Ukraine, even for the purpose of training Ukrainian troops, because there is no need.
At this point, the signal released by this can be said to be very obvious, that is, to cut all ties with Ukraine. I believe everyone knows that from the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Poland has been playing the role of the "vanguard" of the United States, constantly fanning the flames of the Ukrainian crisis, providing military assistance such as tanks and armored vehicles to Ukraine, and even willing to become the main transit point for Western weapons to assist Ukraine. And now the Duda government has stepped on the brakes on the situation between Russia and Ukraine, which is undoubtedly a blow to Biden.
The White House is also very anxious about this, but what can be done? If the cow doesn't drink water, it can't force its head to press, so it can only be magnified and used money to buy people's hearts. Less than 72 hours after Cames' statement, the Polish Ministry of Defense announced that the United States had provided him with a $2 billion loan for the purchase of anti-missile and anti-aircraft weapons. It is worth mentioning that the United States also gave the Polish side "very favorable financial conditions" in this loan.
Interestingly, Poland does not seem to have changed its mind, because on the same day, Poland also announced another announcement, banning Ukrainian trucks from entering Poland without a license for the international transportation of goods. In this way, money is not everything, even if the United States uses money to smash it, Poland is still unwilling to get involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. So the question is, why did Poland suddenly make a 180-degree turn? In my opinion, there are three main factors:
First of all, Polish President Duda's recent visit to China may have given the Polish side a deeper understanding of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although on the surface, the focus of Duda's visit to China seems to be on economic and trade cooperation with China, in fact, the Chinese side has once again explained to Duda our consistent position on promoting peace talks on the Ukraine issue. So I guess that Duda stepped on the brakes after his visit to China, probably to leave Poland with a way out. The logic is very simple, instead of following the United States to risk participating in the war, it is better to make friends with China and develop the domestic economy well.
Secondly, Ukrainian refugees demand the treatment of Polish nationals, who want not only short-term living allowances, but also long-term social benefits. The Polish people are suffering from this, with 61% of Poles in favor of repatriating all Ukrainian refugees, so the Duda government has to be more cautious about Ukraine under pressure. However, such a move is bound to provoke the dissatisfaction of the United States. Especially as soon as the US government dropped $2 billion, Poland gave Biden another resounding "slap in the face" with his backhand. But I think it is unlikely that the United States will take any tough measures against Poland now, after all, the United States is most anxious about the situation in the Middle East, and if it pushes Poland too much, it is likely to backfire, so we can only watch the $2 billion go down the drain.
Finally, the current situation in the US election is that Trump is ahead of Biden, and given Trump's attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war, Poland has to prepare in advance.
Anyway, Poland's move to stop escalating the arch fire has also given another glimmer of hope for Russia-Ukraine peace talks. As for whether Poland will be able to do what it says, we will have to leave the answer to time.