At present, the pressure point of the Shanghai Composite Index is already 3,000 points, if it cannot break through 3,000 points, the Shanghai Composite Index will fall back to 2,900 points.
In particular, recently, many institutional investors have been lifting the stock market, so that the Shanghai Composite Index at 2900 points and 3000 points, and chose to brew many times to break through 3000 points but still did not succeed, indicating that the short-term change point of the three major stock indexes is coming.
In addition, the ChiNext market has hit new lows for many days, which has caused the investment sentiment in the stock market to continue to cool. There is no new capital entering the market, so that the market of the ChiNext and the Shanghai Index has shown a deepening of divergence, and the stock has generally fallen unchanged. It is clear that the short-term rise of A-shares is still under pressure.
In other words, 3,000 points must break through the short-term rise, and the stock market can break through 3,000 points to establish an upward trend, and the risk behind the Shanghai Index will not surge because of the new low of the GEM.
On the evening of July 3, I just learned that two news came
Message 1,
The current ecology of A-shares has changed, with an increase in the number of companies buying back and increasing their holdings, and a surge in the number of companies that continue to fall and delist at face value. It shows that the ecology of the stock market has changed from a speculative market to a value investment market, and it is also a market for core assets to climb in the medium and long term.
In the first half of this year, the repurchase amount was nearly 100 billion yuan, four times that of the same period last year. Of the 1,645 companies that bought back, more than 900 were write-offs. In this way, many listed companies have begun to focus on rewarding investors and have begun to actively maintain their stock prices.
In addition, there are already 226 companies with a repurchase amount of more than 100 million yuan this time, almost all of which are concentrated in leading companies. Although the repurchase did not allow all the repurchased shares to climb, it also indicated the current position, and many listed companies believe that the stock price is undervalued.
In particular, the number of companies that disclose dividends in the second quarter is also increasing, which can boost confidence in the stock market. However, because of the increase in the number of non-dividend and delisted stocks, A-shares are still a structural opportunity from the beginning of the year to July, with some sectors rising sharply and some sectors falling sharply.
Message 2,
Among the A-share sectors in the first half of the year, the oil sector rose the most, up 31.08%, followed by banks up 19.66%, followed by energy, power and other sectors, which also maintained the trend of climbing in the first half of the year. The sectors that rose in the first half of the year were concentrated in the sectors with more dividends and large market capitalization.
Unfortunately, all other sectors are generally falling. Shell Resources, penny stocks fell by more than 35%, and artificial intelligence and technology sectors fell by more than 20%. Medicine, robotics fell more than 18%.
In the first half of the year, the stock market was in a time of great differentiation, which made the trend of large-capitalization plates rising and small-capitalization sectors falling so far.
Although the Shanghai Composite Index is now supported at 2,900 points, unfortunately, this structural trend has not changed, and it is important to understand that the opportunities are still concentrated in the large market capitalization sector and companies with high dividends.
The stock market is likely to move like this tomorrow
From the analysis of news 1, with the advent of the second quarter report, many companies are likely to repurchase shares again, which will also make the structural market of the stock market still the main theme. Companies that are actively buying back and have good fundamentals will attract institutional investors, and they can still maintain their upward trend again.
News 2 shows that although the high-dividend sector has risen too much, the overall style of the stock market may not change when the stock game is played, so that the opportunity for A-shares is still in the large-capitalization sector and the risk is in the small-capitalization sector.
Peony predicts that the stock market is likely to go this way tomorrow, and after opening low, it will start to bottom out and climb to close. The reason is that today's turnover is large, and after the stock market has a volume of turnover, there will generally be investors who will buy the bottom, which will make tomorrow's stock market close.
However, in the current stock market, after the divergence deepens, the three major stock indexes are likely to delay the large-scale rally.
Peony's original content, investment ideas do not constitute suggestions, for reference only, thank you for lighting up your little thumb!