Philippine Foreign Secretary Manaro said on the 25th that he hopes to start a dialogue with China to resolve differences in the South China Sea. The parties have already held a working group meeting, and a formal meeting is likely to be held in July. This statement is at odds with Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro's statement. He said on June 24 that the Philippines would fight China to the end and resupply the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, without notifying China and without any negotiations. Therefore, some people suspect that if it were not for the split within the Philippine government and the emergence of different voices, then the Philippine government deliberately used different departments, one in red and the other in white, in an attempt to interfere with the Chinese government's analysis and decision-making on the Nansha issue.
This possibility is not out of the question. However, in today's information age, the Philippine government's chances of success in such a scheme are too low. Another possibility, which is more likely, is that the Marcos Jr. government is simply a grass stage, with figures from different factions sticking to their different positions and unable to reach an agreement, and Marcos Jr. has lost the ability to control them. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defence are left to their own devices. This is unreasonable for a politically mature country, but it is not unusual for a third-world country that has roughly copied the party, parliamentary, and presidential systems of the West.
Since one has to fight and the other has to talk, we might as well see what each of them wants to do. In fact, between China and the Philippines, the fight will definitely not be successful now. Although Teodoro's mouth is very hard, from the 617 incident to the present, the Philippine side has not sent special forces to attack Ren'ai Jiao again. Judging from the balance of power between the two sides, no matter how much he impacts, it will be the same result. Therefore, the Philippine military cannot fight now.
And what can we talk about? According to Manaro, talks are to be held to determine a mechanism for bilateral consultations on the South China Sea issue. In fact, this mechanism has always existed, and China has not said that it will suspend or close it. It was the Philippines, under pressure from the United States, that broke off the negotiations on its own. According to unconfirmed information, after the Western Philippine Military Region and the Chinese side reached an agreement on a "new model" at Ren'ai Jiao, the United States was furious and reprimanded the Philippines for daring to negotiate with China. Now, since Manaro said that he wants to talk, it may be that the US side has relented in desperation. However, it is unlikely that the Philippine government will agree to withdraw from Second Thomas Shoal, so the talks may not be able to achieve results.
In the past two days, the Philippine military has once again threatened to resupply the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and it does not intend to notify the Chinese side. From the 617 incident to the present, there have been no news reports that the Philippines has airdropped supplies on the broken ship. Obviously, the garrison on the ship is already facing the problem of eating and drinking, although you can fish on the ship, but you may not be able to eat fish, and if you don't send something up, these people will probably surrender on their own initiative. However, under the tight control of the Chinese side, neither the Philippine Coast Guard nor the Navy can approach the Sierra Madre. The naval special forces have all been defeated, who would dare to try again?
It is estimated that the Philippine diplomatic department is going to talk about whether it can release the supply once so that the garrison on the ship can hold on to it any longer. This is also the form in which both sides acquiesced before the Philippine government tore up the "new model". However, history is not a movie, and after an event happens, it is impossible to drag the progress bar back and play it again. If the Philippine diplomatic service wants to simply return to the "new model", I am afraid it will not be possible. Whether the Chinese side will talk or not, and on what terms, we will get information in a few days.
The United States will not rest on its laurels, and even if China and the Philippines reach some kind of new agreement, such as notifying the Chinese side before the supply is renewed, and the Chinese side will only send it on the ship after inspection, the American side will be extremely dissatisfied. While the U.S. is by no means easy to go into battle on its own, it has more than enough means to put pressure on Marcos Jr. In the future, what new tricks they will come up with and what new topics they will use to make a fuss are also worthy of our observation and vigilance. Generally speaking, the South China Sea issue is not an issue that can be easily resolved in a short period of time, but the situation will gradually develop in our favor. From China's standpoint, we must have a stable mentality and be prepared for a long-term struggle.