A-shares continue to shrink, and the change is imminent? 100 billion big white horse, rare limit!

Securities Times E Company

2024-07-03 17:54Published on the official account of "E Company" under Guangdong Securities Times

Today, the overall A-share market fluctuated slightly, with the Shenzhen Component Index falling below 8,800 points and hitting a new low since the adjustment, and important stock indices such as the ChiNext Index and the CSI 500 also hitting new lows. The turnover of the two cities fell below 600 billion yuan, and only 582.9 billion yuan was turned, a new low in nearly 10 months since September 2023.

On the disk, duty-free concepts, ST, penny stocks, tourism and other sectors were active, while Kimi concepts, copper high-speed connections, information innovation, digital currency and other sectors were among the top decliners.

Wind real-time monitoring data shows that the electronics industry has received a net inflow of more than 2.7 billion yuan of main funds today, a net inflow of nearly 2.3 billion yuan in commerce and retail, and a net inflow of more than 100 million yuan in real estate, non-bank finance, comprehensive and other industries. The net outflow of major funds from banks and computers exceeded 1 billion yuan, and the net outflow of public utilities and national defense and military industry also exceeded 100 million yuan.

For the market outlook, China Merchants Securities pointed out that July is the peak period for the disclosure of interim performance forecasts, and from the low base of last year, the proportion of this year's performance forecast may increase, alleviating previous concerns about fundamentals. In terms of incremental funding, investors in major ETFs continued to significantly increase their holdings, providing financial support for market stability. After the market correction in the early stage, the pessimism was obviously released, and in the future, with the heating up of reform expectations and the gradual stabilization of performance, A-shares are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound in July.

Aijian Securities believes that the trading volume is still at a low level. At present, the stock index has fallen below all short- and medium-term weekly moving averages, and the medium-term trend of the market has weakened significantly. Although the short-term moving average was regained on Monday, the downward trend of the stock index shock has not changed, and the stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in a wide range to seek a balance between long and short, pay close attention to the trend of trading volume and sentiment index, grasp the market rhythm of selling high and buying low, and strictly control the operation of selecting individual stocks in positions.

In terms of hot spots, the concept of duty-free strengthened across the board today, and the sector index opened higher against the trend and rose 2.57%. China Duty Free, a leading company with a market value of 100 billion yuan, touched the daily limit, and the trading volume increased sharply by more than 5 times compared with the previous trading day; Haiyin shares opened high after the second speed limit, Nanning Department Store, Wangfujing, Dalian Friendship, etc. are also in about 10 minutes on the straight line sealing.

Driven by the concept of duty-free, new retail, commercial chains, Hainan Free Trade, Shanghai Free Trade and other related sectors followed higher. Brand new, central shopping mall, Hualian shares, Xujiahui and other batch daily limits.

Recently, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued the Announcement on Increasing the Duty-free Allowance for Luggage and Articles for Resident Passengers Entering Hong Kong and Macao, and the duty-free quota for Baggage and Articles for Resident Passengers Entering Hong Kong and Macao has been increased to 12,000 yuan. Previously, the relevant tax exemption limit was 5,000 yuan.

The announcement emphasizes that resident passengers who enter the country from Hong Kong and Macao and have reached the age of 18 will be released duty-free if they carry reasonable personal luggage and items obtained abroad, with a total value of less than 12,000 yuan (including 12,000 yuan). At the same time, at ports with inbound duty-free shops, the above-mentioned passengers are allowed to purchase a certain amount of duty-free goods at the port entry-duty shops, and the total value of their reasonable personal luggage and articles obtained abroad is less than 15,000 yuan (including 15,000 yuan) will be released duty-free.

According to preliminary statistics from the Hong Kong Tourism Board, from January to May this year, a total of 18 million tourists visited Hong Kong, a year-on-year increase of about 80%. Among them, the number of visitors from the Mainland to Hong Kong was 13.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 73.5%; Non-Mainland visitor arrivals totalled 4.21 million, up 93.5% year-on-year.

According to the Statistics and Census Service of the Macao Special Administrative Region, in the first five months of this year, 928,000 visitors entered Macao with group groups, an increase of 2.3 times year-on-year. Among them, there were 828,000 group passengers from Chinese mainland, a two-fold increase year-on-year, and 88,000 international group passengers, a 14-fold increase year-on-year.

Minsheng Securities said that the increase in the tax exemption is relatively reasonable and can avoid the impact on other provinces and cities in the mainland. At the same time, considering that Guangdong and Macao share a border, duty-free shop operators with multiple ports of entry, such as Zhuhai Duty Free and Shenzhen Duty Free, are expected to benefit.

With the advent of the summer tourism season, tourism stocks have continued to strengthen recently, and today they rose again, rising on 6 of the last 7 trading days. Zhongxin Tourism and Qujiang Cultural Tourism were among the top gainers. Hotel and catering stocks also rose against the trend, with Xi'an Catering and Huatian Hotel leading the gainers.

According to the "2024 Summer Travel Market Forecast Report" recently released by Trip.com Group, the domestic tourism market has maintained steady growth this summer, with domestic hotel and air ticket searches increasing by more than 20% year-on-year. Long-term travel is the main force of summer, according to the current booking data, accounting for more than 70%, and travel orders in the northeast and southwest regions increased by 40% and 25% year-on-year respectively.

Galaxy Securities said that the summer transportation data reflects that the summer tourism market demand is still resilient, and the northwest tourism market is expected to achieve faster growth in the summer, and it is recommended to lay out high-quality western scenic spots. In addition, OTAs, as traffic platforms, are still the absolute beneficiaries of the growth of the tourism market, and the growth space is expected to expand in the future due to the improvement of the competitive landscape of the industry and the rapid growth of the overseas/outbound travel business.

View original image 11K

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

•