As uncertainty about the global economy continues to rise, we are at the crossroads of three major changes. Industry experts generally predict that in the next six months, the market may experience a deep correction, and the decline is expected to be as high as 30%. Here are the key takeaways from these three major changes and their possible impact. First, global monetary policy has changed dramatically. In recent years, central banks have raised interest rates and scaled back monetary policy stimulus in response to inflation
。 However, this series of actions could lead to a global economic slowdown or even a recession. In particular, in major economies like the United States, persistently high interest rates could lead to a drying up of liquidity, making the market liquid, which in turn could trigger a decline in the stock market. Second, trade frictions have intensified. Today, with the in-depth development of globalization, trade frictions have become an important risk point for the economic development of all countries. Especially in the mainland, the Sino-US trade friction may further escalate, resulting in the dual pressure of reduced orders and declining profits for mainland exporters. This will not only affect the mainland's economic growth, but also have an impact on the global supply chain and cause market panic. Third, geopolitical risks are rising. Recently, geopolitical tensions have become increasingly high, and the risk of war has been rising.
Once a regional conflict breaks out, it will have a chain reaction on the rise of international oil prices and food prices, which in turn will cause inflation and lead the global economy into stagflation. For asset markets, such risk factors may lead to a sustained decline in the stock market. In the face of these three major changes, how should investors respond? First, reduce risky asset allocation. For high-risk assets such as funds and stocks, investors should focus on asset allocation and reduce the proportion of positions to avoid market risks. Second, focus on policy shifts. Pay close attention to the policy trends of various countries, especially monetary policies, and adjust investment strategies in a timely manner.
Again, focus on emerging industries. With the rise of emerging industries such as technology and environmental protection, investors can appropriately allocate related industries and share the growth dividends of the industry. Finally, stay rational with your investments. In the process of market adjustment, investors should stay calm, do not blindly follow the trend, and avoid emotional investment.
In short, in the next six months, the market may experience a deep adjustment. Investors need to pay close attention to the global economic trend and respond rationally to market changes, in order to seek growth and opportunities in the storm.