CFIC Introduction
◆In the first half of 2024, the average sales value of the top 10 real estate companies was 102.96 billion yuan, down 33.2% from the previous year; The average sales decline of the bottom 90 real estate companies fluctuated around 50%.
Original title: Top 100 real estate companies, how about the half-year "report card"?
On July 1, the reporter combed through the data of the institution and found that in the first six months of this year, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies were 2,083.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.6%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the decline narrowed for four consecutive months, among them, the monthly sales of real estate companies in June fell by 19.55% year-on-year and increased by 26.05% month-on-month, both of which were better than in May.
The sales of 6 real estate companies exceeded 100 billion yuan, and the performance of second-hand houses was better than that of new houses
Specifically, in the first half of 2024, the average sales volume of the top 10 real estate companies will be 102.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.2% from the previous year; The average sales decline of the bottom 90 real estate companies fluctuated around 50%.
It is worth noting that in the first half of 2024, the average target completion rate of typical real estate enterprises is 41.5%, compared with 63.2% in the same period last year, and the target completion rate is 21.6 percentage points lower. 6 enterprises with sales of more than 100 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1; There were 44 enterprises with more than 10 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34. The number of 100 billion and 10 billion enterprises decreased by about 2/3 compared with the peak in 2021.
From a national perspective, in terms of new houses, in the first half of the year, the sales area of new houses in key 100 cities fell by about 40% year-on-year, and in June, it decreased by about 20% year-on-year, and the decline was about 10 percentage points narrower than that in May; In June (6.3-6.30), the average weekly number of second-hand housing transactions increased by 14.5% compared with the average weekly average in May and 24.1% over the same period last year.
According to the Baicheng Price Index of China's real estate index system, in June 2024, the average price of second-hand residential buildings in Baicheng was 14,762 yuan/square meter, down 0.73% month-on-month, an increase of 0.03 percentage points from May, and a month-on-month decline of 6.25% for 26 consecutive months. The average price of new residential buildings in Baicheng was 16,421 yuan/square meter, up 0.15% month-on-month, 0.10 percentage points narrower than that in May, and up 1.50% year-on-year.
The policy continues to be favorable, and the land acquisition of real estate companies has slowed down
In terms of land acquisition by real estate enterprises, according to data from the China Index Research Institute, in the first half of 2024, the total amount of land acquired by the top 100 real estate companies was 380.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.8%.
From the perspective of the amount of land acquired by each urban agglomeration, the Yangtze River Delta leads the country. From January to June 2024, the top 10 enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta will acquire 77.6 billion yuan of land, continuing to rank first among the four major urban agglomerations. From the perspective of the top 10 real estate enterprises in key cities with land acquisition amount, more than half of the central and state-owned enterprises are state-owned enterprises, and private enterprises are also supplementing land reserves in key areas.
Chen Xingbang, an analyst at the China Index Institute, said: "From April to May, local auction policies were frequently issued, and real estate companies were also actively adapting and adjusting their strategies. On the one hand, for high-quality land plots in advantageous areas, real estate enterprises are more enthusiastic about investment and the competition is more intense. On the other hand, for land plots that are not cost-effective, real estate companies are more cautious in acquiring land. The intensification of the differentiation of land auctions has also led to the overall cautious situation of real estate companies in acquiring land in the short term. ”
In addition, the reporter found that many places have recently adjusted the land auction policy and gradually abolished the land auction price limit. For example, on June 7, the announcement of the third batch of centralized land auctions in Shanghai in 2024 was released, canceling the previous maximum price limit and restoring the model of the highest price. So far, among the 22 key cities in China, only Beijing, Shenzhen (15% cap) and Ningbo (30% cap) still have set land price limits. "However, in the recent land supply in Beijing, there are 2 parcels of land that have broken through the previous 15% convention, and the two residential lands launched in Ningbo on June 7 have not set a land price ceiling, and the expectation that these cities will continue to optimize the land price limit in the future has been further enhanced." Chen Xingbang said.
Source: Shanghai Securities News, China Securities Network
Author: Liu Yipeng
Mortgage interest rates in many places have fallen to "3"
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 2 (Reporter Xiang Jiaying, intern Liu Chang) "Economic Information Daily" published an article on July 2 "The cost of buying a house is falling, and the mortgage interest rate in many places has dropped to "3". According to the article, on May 17, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration issued a number of financial measures to support real estate (hereinafter referred to as the "517 New Deal for the Property Market"). Since the release of the "517 New Deal for the Property Market", the mortgage interest rate in 100 cities has further declined, and the first home loan interest rate in most cities has fallen to between 3.1% and 3.5%, which is far lower than the previous market average.
"The reduction in mortgage rates has really provided benefits to home buyers and reduced the burden." Ms. Chen, a citizen of Pingxiang, Jiangxi Province, bought a residential house in a community after the implementation of the new mortgage policy, "I applied for a 30-year mortgage loan of 560,000 yuan, and the bank said that as a high-quality customer, you can enjoy a preferential loan interest rate, and the loan market prime rate (LPR) is reduced by 50 basis points, and the total interest expense is expected to be reduced by 50,400 yuan according to the current LPR." ”
Recently, home buyers in many places across the country have enjoyed the policy dividend of declining mortgage interest rates. At present, except for Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the rest of the cities in the country have abolished the lower limit of mortgage interest rates.
On June 26, Beijing issued the Notice on Optimizing Policies and Measures for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in the City. After this round of adjustment, the lower limit of the interest rate for the purchase of the first home loan in Beijing is 3.5%.
"On the day the policy was released, many banks followed up to lower interest rates, and now the interest rate on commercial loans for the first home has dropped to 3.5%, the lowest mortgage interest rate for the second house in the fifth ring road is 3.9%, and the interest rate outside the fifth ring road is 3.7%." On July 1, a staff member of Lianjia on Changchun Street in Beijing told reporters that just this past weekend, Lianjia had traded more than 1,000 orders in Beijing, "which was about three or four hundred orders before".
Leng Hui, an analyst at Beijing Lianjia Research Institute, said that since the introduction of the "626" policy, the number of second-hand housing contracts in Beijing Lianjia has increased by 12.2% compared with before the policy was introduced, and the number of new tourists has increased by 11.0%, and the volume of shows is generally flat, indicating that the policy has a positive effect on the decision-making of stock housing demand and the release of potential housing demand.
Prior to Beijing's policy adjustment, among the first-tier cities, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had all made policy adjustments at the end of May. From a national perspective, the average mortgage interest rate in 100 cities has also been further reduced, and the mortgage interest rate in most areas has dropped to "3". For example, the mainstream interest rate for second home loans in Wuhan dropped from 4.15% to 3.35%, a decrease of 80 basis points; The interest rate on the first home loan fell by 30 basis points from 3.55% to 3.25%. The mainstream interest rate of second home loans in Xiamen dropped from 4.25% to 3.75%, a decrease of 50 basis points; The interest rate on the first home loan fell by 15 basis points from 3.45% to 3.3%.
According to the monitoring data of the Shell Research Institute, after the implementation of the "517 New Deal for the Property Market", the average commercial loan interest rate for the first home in 100 cities fell to 3.45% in May, and the average interest rate for the second home loan fell to 3.90%, down 12 basis points and 26 basis points respectively from the previous month. At the same time, the average loan cycle of banks in May was 22 days, maintaining a relatively fast pace of lending.
Under the release of policy dividends, the activity of the property market in many places has increased. According to data from the China Index Research Institute, from June 1 to 25, the average daily transaction number of new houses in Shanghai increased by 11.1% compared with May, and the average daily transaction number of second-hand houses increased by 40.5% compared with May driven by price exchange and policy optimization, and more than 1,000 sets of online signatures have been signed online for many days since June. As of June 25, the average daily number of new housing transactions in Shenzhen since June increased by 32.3% compared with May and 5.7% year-on-year; The average daily transaction volume of the second-hand housing market in June increased by 5.7% compared with May under the high base in May, continuing the moderate recovery trend.
However, with the decline in the interest rate of new mortgages, the interest rate spread between new mortgages and existing mortgages has also widened, and the discussion on lowering the interest rate of existing mortgages has also heated up.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, for example, took a 30-year mortgage of 1 million yuan as an example, if calculated at the interest rate of 3.5% for new home buyers, and the equal principal and interest repayment method is adopted, the total interest paid is about 616,600 yuan. For existing mortgage holders, if the mortgage interest rate is 4.5%, the total interest paid under the same conditions is about 824,100 yuan.
There are also calls for downward adjustment of LPR quotations with a maturity of more than five years. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said that there is room for the LPR to be lowered, and there is still an imbalance in the domestic deposit market, and the proportion of time deposits is still high. Since the beginning of the year, the interest rate on treasury bonds has further fallen markedly, lower than the deposit interest rate in the same period, creating conditions for the reduction of bank deposit interest rates. However, considering that the five-year LPR has declined significantly before and the pressure on interest margins in the banking sector continues, the room for subsequent adjustment may be narrowed.
In fact, last year, the mainland just carried out a round of adjustment of the interest rate of existing housing loans. According to the announcement issued by the central bank in November 2023, the interest rate reduction of existing housing loans has been basically completed, with an average reduction of 0.73 percentage points, benefiting 150 million people, reducing interest expenses by 160 billion yuan to 170 billion yuan per year, and reducing the average household by 3,200 yuan per year.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, said that housing loans are an important asset and source of income for banks, and banks need to weigh various factors when adjusting. In the short term, banks are expected to take the initiative to adjust the interest rate of existing housing loans, but in the context of vigorously promoting the expansion of domestic demand and promoting consumption, it is not ruled out that the regulatory authorities may introduce policies to guide the reduction of interest rates on existing housing loans in the future.
Source: Xinhua News Agency
Reporter: Xiang Jiaying
WeChat editor: Guan Qiao
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