The last big move in the property market, is it on the way?

The package is different

2024-07-02 10:49Creators in the field of finance and economics

Can urban renewal achieve the effect of shed renovation in the past?

01

The property market data is still not up

In May this year, the real estate rescue market has entered the sprint stage, the second-tier purchase restrictions have been cancelled, and the first-line purchase restrictions are gradually relaxed.

By May 17, this round of bailouts reached its climax.

The high-level four arrows are fired at the same time, and the loan interest rate, down payment ratio, etc. are all liberalized.

But what's really going on in the market?

Looking at the data, I'm afraid it's not so optimistic.

Let's take a look at the land market at the top of the stream. In the first five months of 2024, the country's land sales revenue was 1.28 trillion yuan, down 14% year-on-year.

2024 is about to pass the halfway point, and the five-month land sales income is only 1.28 trillion yuan, and the average monthly land sales income is only 256 billion yuan.

Based on an estimate of a 14% decline, the revenue from land sales may fall below 5 trillion yuan this year. According to the forecast of average monthly land sales income, the land sales income for the whole year may fall to more than 3 trillion yuan.

Downgraded to the local, the data of individual cities is really unbearable, and even the first-tier cities have not been spared.

On June 25, Guangzhou held its last local auction in the first half of this year. Judging from the results of the first half of the year, Guangzhou only sold 4 pieces of land in the first half of the year, raising 6.477 billion yuan.

Of the 12 cases involving residential land, only 4 were sold, and the land auction market was completely cold, and no one played.

After the New Deal, on the news, the property market seems to be in full swing.

Qilu reported that intermediaries were receiving buyers in the early morning, and after the new deal in the property market, some real estate projects were "crowded".

Southern News Network is also reporting: On the first day of the new property market deal, Guangzhou real estate worked overtime in the early morning to welcome buyers.

Daily Economic News Report: At half past two in the morning, there are still customers who transfer money to book rooms.

.........

Looking at these news, do you think that houses all over the country have been sold out, and housing prices are about to take off?

In fact, China's top 100 real estate companies are still sluggish, with sales performance of 322.4 billion yuan in May, down 33.6% year-on-year.

02

Urban renewal, the big recruit is coming?

The policy effect was not as expected, and the high-level held a meeting:

Demand for emancipation of the mind.

What is meant by emancipating the mind is not to be constrained by the existing rules and regulations, but to have ideas and practices that go beyond the convention.

Soon after, a major event broke out in various places: the establishment of the Urban Renewal Bureau.

The first to come out was Hubei, where the housing and urban-rural development bureaus of 17 prefectures, cities and prefectures in the province were renamed the Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau.

Then the official website of the Ministry of Finance revealed an even more heavyweight news:

Starting this year, the central government has innovated ways and means to support 15 cities to implement urban renewal actions, with a maximum subsidy of 1.2 billion yuan for a single city.

This also marks that 15 key cities, such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Dongguan and Chengdu, are about to embark on the journey of urban renewal.

On the surface, it may seem like just a name change, but it's actually a change of time.

Or rather, it is a real rescue move.

In the past two years, in order to stimulate domestic demand, many policies have been introduced.

From clothing to travel.

Medium to automobiles, home.

Large to commercial residences.

All of them are stimulating everyone to buy and consume. However, the end effect is obvious: no.

Because of the stimulation of domestic demand, only the policy restrictions have been relaxed for everyone to buy, but everyone has no money, how can they have the courage to buy a house?

So after going around and around, after trying a round of mistakes, I suddenly turned around and found:

The troika still has to rely on investment to drive the economic recovery and the recovery of the property market.

However, the leverage ratio of China's residential sector has risen from about 40% at the beginning of 2016 to about 60% in mid-2020, and has reached about 64% by the end of 2023, so there is hardly much room for increasing leverage.

Therefore, only the hand led by the government can support the property market.

The specific method is probably what has been highlighted in the past two years - urban renewal!

This kind of action is actually familiar to the big guys, similar to the monetization of shantytown reform in 2015. The government has injected money into various urban renewal projects through methods such as special funds and special bonds.

On the one hand, the currency is put into circulation through the renewal project;

On the other hand, it is to promote the employment of related industries.

It can be understood as another model of infrastructure construction, and now the state is indeed doing it.

It's just that it's far less big than the action of shed reform, and the amount of money invested.

03

Can real estate continue to live for 20 years?

However, simply understanding urban renewal as saving the property market is also one-sided.

It is not so much to save the property market as to save the economy. The policy has the following purposes:

First, urban renewal is part of "big infrastructure + real estate", which is a traditional means to stimulate the economy. In the economic downturn, more new projects are needed to stabilize growth and protect jobs.

Second, we need to enhance the resilience and quality of central cities, improve disaster prevention and environmental protection capabilities, and enhance the value of large cities.

Third, the core of urban renewal is "the renewal and transformation of old areas", which actually drives the development of the real estate industry. In the process of renovation, you can also subtract the old house to "create" the demand for buying a house.

In the past two decades, although China's real estate has developed rapidly, it has left many problems and contradictions. After the abolition of the welfare housing system, many people can live in houses on demand, but it has also pushed up housing prices, making housing prices the biggest luxury in many families.

So there is a very strange phenomenon: expensive houses are too cheap, and cheap houses are too expensive.

Some houses in big cities, such as houses in the core areas of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, actually have no sense of quality.

For example, there are even some so-called tens of millions of luxury houses, but in fact, the plot ratio is as high as 6 or more, and they are still super high-rises, and there is no community to speak of.

Houses are too expensive for ordinary people, but not worth the price for those who can afford them.

So urban renewal is here to solve this problem.

Solve the problem that ordinary people can't afford to live in a house;

On the other hand, it will improve the quality of the city, so that the wealthy class will have a greater willingness to buy a house.

Don't think that this is unlikely to happen, in fact, all localities are already coming up with real money and practical policies to engage in "purchasing instead of building".

On May 17, the central bank said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office that it would set up a new 300 billion yuan of affordable housing collection and storage reloans to support local collection and storage, which gave the local government a start.

Subsequently, more and more cities began to "close houses".

Last week, Jiangmen, Guangdong Province proposed to solicit existing commercial houses at the price of affordable housing, and the scope of the collection not only includes Jiangmen urban area, but also includes subordinate county-level cities Taishan City, Kaiping City, Heshan City, and Enping City. The solicitation of housing requires a single set of existing houses with an area of 120 square meters and below and clear property rights, and the solicitation time is one month.

Huizhou has also proposed to purchase commercial housing in the urban area for use as affordable housing.

On June 2, Suzhou proposed to "purchase on demand" and organize state-owned enterprises to purchase part of the stock of commercial housing for affordable housing.

Chongqing has moved the fastest, and on June 23, Chongqing's first project in which state-owned enterprises acquired commercial housing in bulk for rental housing has been put into use.

The chain is very clear: money is put into the local government - the local government buys back the house - buys back the house and invests it in public rental housing - makes room for urban renewal - and then puts it on the market or public rental security after renewal

Therefore, the real big move in the property market is not to save housing prices and real estate enterprises, but to save the economy and confidence.

No matter how you look at the property market in the past 20 years, it is undeniable that the real estate industry has completed its national mission.

Real estate, once a pillar industry of the national economy, has enabled China's rapid economic development for 30 years, brought urbanization to a new height, and improved people's living standards and living conditions by several grades.

Now that it has entered the final stage, the future real estate industry is likely to be urban renewal or the old stage and new era.

This is why urban renewal is mentioned in the work reports and development plans from top to bottom.

This is also why, after the last important meeting, urban renewal bureaus have begun to be established in various places.

Personally, I speculate that the corresponding supporting policies are already on the way, and will be promulgated and implemented one after another.

And then another blockbuster meeting in July, it is very likely that relevant policies will be announced.

Now is the time for everyone to keep up with market changes and understand the direction of the property market.

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