Less than a week after returning from his visit to China, Duda gave Biden a blow in the face. #军史观察团#
Here's the thing. In the past two days, Polish Defense Minister Kames suddenly said very confidently that Poland would not send troops to Ukraine.
According to Kames, the Polish side will continue to help Ukraine train military personnel, but it is unlikely that Poland will send troops to Ukraine even for training purposes.
At this point, Poland's meaning is very understandable, that is, Poland can support Ukraine by training the Ukrainian army, but it is not necessary to send troops to Ukraine.
What role did Poland play in the Russia-Ukraine conflict before? That is the "vanguard" of the United States, a proper "anti-Russian fighter". The Duda government stepped on the brakes at this time and said that it was not an exaggeration to give Biden a blow to the head.
The Biden administration is also very anxious about this, and what can be done is to throw money at it. Less than 72 hours after Cammes' statement, the Polish Ministry of Defense announced that the United States had provided Poland with a $2 billion loan for the latter's purchase of anti-missile and anti-aircraft weapons.
According to the Polish military, the United States gave the Polish side "very favorable financial conditions" in this loan.
However, it is unlikely that the United States wants to make Poland change its mind through a concessional loan of $2 billion.
On the same day that Poland announced the news, they also announced that Ukrainian trucks that did not have a license for the international transportation of goods would be suspended from entering and leaving Poland. Such a move shows that Poland is still unwilling to get deeply involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, even if the United States spends money.
As for Poland, this turn is mostly related to the following factors.
First of all, Polish President Duda's recent visit to China may have had a certain impact on the Polish side's decision-making on the Ukraine issue.
On the surface, it seems that the focus of Duda's visit to China is on economic cooperation, including expanding the export of agricultural products to China, but at the same time, the Chinese side has once again explained to Duda our consistent position on promoting peace talks on the Ukraine issue.
We speculate that Duda stepped on the brakes after returning home, and it cannot be ruled out that he wanted to leave a way out for Poland. The logic is that Poland's refusal to send troops to Ukraine to aggravate the situation is clearly in line with China's position.
For Poland, it is undoubtedly a wise choice to maintain good relations with China as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine unfolds. If Duda returns to China, he ignores China's position and continues to ignite the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which will also have a negative impact on mutual trust between China and Poland.
Secondly, we also need to pay attention to the movements of NATO and Ukraine in the build-up of troops on the Belarusian border. In response to these actions, the Belarusian side has made it clear that it is ready to fight back.
The national security of Poland, as a country bordering Belarus, is directly affected by this situation. In this case, the Duda government is clearly reluctant to invest its forces in another hotspot of the conflict - Ukraine, lest it set itself on fire and lose sight of the other.
Moreover, much of the Biden administration's current focus is on the Middle East. The escalation of tensions between Israel and Lebanon is diverting U.S. energy and resources from Ukraine.
The Duda government will inevitably not be worried that at a critical moment, the United States will not be able to help defend Poland at all.
In addition, anti-war sentiment is strong in Poland, and in the face of polls in which more than 70% of respondents support Poland's national interests first, the Duda government can only be more cautious on the Ukraine issue.
Of course, it is also possible that in the opinion of Poland, even if they send troops, it will be difficult to change the status quo in Ukraine. That being the case, there is certainly no need for Poland to send troops at the risk of outright provoking Russia.
There are historical grievances and geopolitical rivalries between Poland and Russia. If Poland is deeply involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it cannot be ruled out that it will trigger Russia to take more aggressive actions against Poland. This concern may occupy an important place within Duda's government, so that Duda has to be more inclined to avoid direct conflict with Russia when making decisions.
However, Poland's approach is bound to arouse the dissatisfaction of the United States. In particular, the United States has just dropped $2 billion, and Poland has given the United States another "slap in the face" with its backhand.
But analysts believe that the United States should be unlikely to take too tough measures against Poland. As mentioned above, the situation in the Middle East is what the United States is most worried about, and if the United States pushes Poland excessively, it will probably backfire.
The Polish side does not rule out that it is also aware of the situation of the United States, and they announced measures against Ukrainian trucks, which they do not rule out in order to send a signal to the United States that Poland will make decisions independently on the Ukrainian issue. In this way, the $2 billion of the United States may have to be wasted.
In general, Poland stepped on the brakes of sending troops at this time, which did help to ease the situation between Russia and Ukraine. But whether the Polish side can do what it says, or resist the pressure of the United States, we will have to wait and see. At present, it can only be said that Poland's suspension of escalation can be regarded as giving Russia and Ukraine another glimmer of hope for peace talks.