Pay attention to the official account and the compass in the world, so that you can read the text "Men are afraid of entering the wrong industry, women are afraid of marrying the wrong man, people are afraid of choosing the wrong city, and they are even more afraid of buying the wrong house"
Answer a question from a full-level reader today.
He asked me about the incident that happened in early June, which was the end of the 50-year-old petrodollar deal by Saudi Arabia. What does this mean?
First, let's look at the principle.
As I said, the essence of money is a value anchor.
Credit currency, what does your credit depend on?
Follow what most people learn in textbooks on campus.
The value of the U.S. dollar is actually reflected in the world's demand for oil purchases, and through international trade transactions.
It is commonly known that the United States printed dollars not for the United States, but for the whole world.
Just like the products produced by our whole system product line, they are not for us, but for the whole world.
To put it simply, they have paper money, lack of things, and if they don't have enough things, they are prone to inflation; We have the goods, but we lack buyers.
Based on this monetary principle, the US dollar is, of course, inseparable from global use, otherwise the US dollar would no longer be the US dollar.
If so many dollars are printed for the world's use scenarios, if all of them end up flowing back to the United States, and other countries don't use them, then the United States has really become Chang Kaishen.
However, there are three things in this.
The first thing you learn is that it's out of date.
I mentioned it the other day when I was talking about why I didn't publish a book.
The rhythm of human civilization today is completely different from that of hundreds of years ago, and the previous knowledge was updated every few hundred years, and after the industrial civilization, it was updated every few decades.
But it's been updated every few years now.
Therefore, those who have studied in college, as soon as they enter the company, will find that most of what you have learned will not be used.
Because new things come out every day, and old things expire every day.
The concept of the petrodollar is a matter of the trade era.
At that time, the dollar became the global hegemonic currency because oil transactions were settled in US dollars.
But with the prominence of the financial sector, this is no longer the case.
If you look at the use of the dollar by global capital in the field of investment, it is an order of magnitude greater than the use of global capital against the dollar in the field of trade.
What does this mean? This shows that petrodollar is a younger brother, who is the real elder brother? It's the financial dollar.
Because one is a watermelon and the other is an egg.
So when we talk about the international market, we usually mean the US market by default, and the subtext behind this sentence is already telling you that the reason why the dollar is hegemonic is not reflected in the purchase of oil with it.
Rather, it is embodied in the world's major investment markets, and it is used for investment behavior in international markets.
The passage I said above has been around for many years, but our book has not been updated.
This is very normal, just like when I was in college, the knowledge we learned in the field of computer science was more than ten years later than the industry average, and all of them were eliminated.
Everyone knows it, but it can't be helped.
Teaching is an old art, and that stuff involves exams, and it's extremely slow to update.
So from time to time, readers ask me what books I want to read, and I say you want to read them, just look at the emotional ones.
What Jia Baoyu and Lin Daiyu are in love, you can see this, it will not be out of date for a thousand years.
Books related to the industry, I can't read them, because it's really too late.
After writing a book, that technology is definitely obsolete.
The speed at which books are written, the speed at which technology evolves is so fast, and the only way you want to learn is to work.
To go to work is to study, and no one can study if you don't go to work.
This is the first question, the petrodollar is not the petrodollar you understand it for a long time, or its importance has long been downgraded and downgraded.
The second thing is that the United States is both an importer and an exporter of oil.
In the petrodollar era, the Americans did not exploit their own oil, on the one hand, because of the need for strategic reserves, and on the other hand, there was no breakthrough in shale oil technology.
At that time, the United States was an importer, and Saudi Arabia was a major oil producer.
Decades have passed, and if you look at it now, the United States is a big oil producer, even a big exporter.
It has been several years since the technological breakthrough of shale oil, and it has been several years since the United States sold it.
The only problem here is that the refining and processing technology of shale oil extracted by the United States and the kind of oil sold by Saudi Arabia are different, and the processing equipment required is different.
And shale oil in the United States has only been extracted on a large scale in the last decade, and you have discovered a miraculous phenomenon.
On the one hand, the United States is crazy about buying oil from the Middle East, and on the other hand, it is crazy about exporting oil.
This is because the equipment of their own refining oil refinery is still using old equipment and cannot be adjusted in the short term. Otherwise, the United States can completely avoid importing Saudi Arabia and use its own sufficient.
But let's think about it from another angle, when the United States is crazy about purchasing international crude oil, what do they use to settle it? If you don't use the dollar, should you use the yen?
Similarly, when the United States frantically exports its own shale oil, what do they ask other countries to settle with?
If you don't use the dollar, should you use the yen?
At this point, you have seen it very clearly, as such a large international crude oil buyer, and at the same time as such a large international crude oil seller, every purchase and sale is settled in US dollars, you tell me that the petrodollar is over?
So even if you don't understand the financial dollar, you still remember the old stalk of the petrodollar, then you should know: the oil in the petrodollar is in the hands of the United States, and the dollar in the petrodollar is also in the hands of the United States.
To end, it is also the end of the United States itself and itself, and there is no end for Saudi Arabia and the United States. That day, the United States said that I don't export crude oil or import crude oil, I produce it for my own use, and that's the end of it.
The third thing, this news is fake.
Actually, it's not like that, I'm not saying that Saudi Arabia didn't end the agreement, I mean, there was no agreement in the first place.
Got it?
There was no such agreement 50 years ago, so what will end in 50 years?
The petrodollar agreement is a market-based statement, and there is no such thing as an agreement.
The international market, like the domestic market, is also very fond of hyping all kinds of unwarranted things.
Anyway, as long as it can go up and down, you can make money.
So how do you talk about it?
It's Guan Gong vs. Qin Qiong, pure.
In the short term, the dollar is strong and will continue to do so.
I've talked about this many times, and I've been reminding everyone to pay attention to the strength of the dollar almost every month since the beginning of this year, and I've repeated it every month.
Just like I said that the Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates so quickly, this sentence has been said for a year and a half, and I have said it once a month, and it is estimated that many people can afford to listen to the calloon.
Then the long-term trend of the dollar is also very simple, just in one sentence.
The sun is about to set in the west.
This is very simple, it is not a financial analysis, it is a philosophical analysis.
If things are strong, they will be old, heaven and earth will have longevity, there is no eternal thing, and the dollar will never be an exception.
No matter how many benchmarks they have, whether they are benchmarking against their own oil, whether they are benchmarking against the chips of the Pike Huang family, or benchmarking against finance, there is no way to change the final result in the philosophical sense.
But when we do trading, no one will pay attention to the long-term, because the long-term is more of a philosophical study, and there is no direct connection with your trading order.
It's like the analogy I played.
If there is a person who has been in a start-up company for 10 years and has stayed up until it goes public, then may I ask, did he make a decision 10 years ago?
No, he made more than 3,600 decisions.
That is to say, in the past ten years, he has to think every day, whether I want to stay or change jobs, but more than 3,600 times in a row, each time the decision is the same, and finally it makes you look as if he has completed a long-term decision.
That's why I've always said that there are long-term investors in this world, but not long-term investors who make decisions on a certain night, as retail investors understand, but every night.
True long-term investors, they are still short-term investors in nature.
Pay attention to the official account and the compass in the world, so that you can read the text "Men are afraid of entering the wrong industry, women are afraid of marrying the wrong man, people are afraid of choosing the wrong city, and they are even more afraid of buying the wrong house"
