A-share brawl,
On Thursday, foreign capital sold 11 billion, and domestic capital sold 25 billion.
The two brothers worked together to smash the big A that had just rebounded on Wednesday again,
The "gold pit" reappeared, and GJD went to work at the opening of the market on Friday, frantically picking up cheap chips.
The strength is so great that it once pulled the big A to nearly 5,000 individual stocks.
However, at the close, only 3,000 stocks were left.
(PS: During the period, the net buying volume of the main domestic capital fell from nearly 7 billion in early trading to 1.431 billion, compared with the net selling of nearly 670 billion in the past 32 consecutive trading days, a drop in the bucket)
The current A-share sentient beings,
Domestic and foreign capital are embarrassed and retreat while fighting;
GJD keeps an eye on the market and grabs cheap chips when it has the opportunity;
The quantitative and crazy harvesting of the tour capital, creating hot spots, and making a lot of money.
There are only retail investors, who are attacked by the enemy on their backs and are beaten in various ways.
suddenly remembered the Avengers Battle of Wakanda,
The protagonists from all walks of life show their magical powers, all kinds of gorgeous flat A, with one as a hundred, heroic and cool.
There were only small soldiers on both sides who charged, all kinds of suffering, countless casualties...
For ordinary small scatters such as us, this kind of market is suitable for watching the play quietly and doing things in a low-key manner.
In the absence of a significant deterioration in fundamentals and core logic,
fell out of the extremely underestimated opportunity, bent down to pick up some high-quality chips,
Don't be stupid and try your best!
Others don't take our lives seriously, but we have to spare our lives.
01
Cycle and core competitiveness
The two most ruthless tracks/stocks that have collapsed recently,
A share of liquor, a Hong Kong stock of millet.
CSI liquor plummeted 20% in just one month, breaking through the lowest level in early February this year and hitting a new low in nearly four years:
Xiaomi Group has plummeted nearly 18% in the last month, and in the last week alone, it has fallen by nearly 11%:
These two brothers don't seem to be able to fight,
But the logic is worth learning for a lifetime!
The collapse of liquor is essentially the entire industry entering a downward cycle.
This risk, the Taoist has repeatedly reminded since November 13 last year:
Since the first risk warning on November 13, CSI liquor has fallen by nearly 25%.
There are two core logics for the downward trend of the liquor cycle:
(1) After the collapse of the real estate economy, the wealth effect has decreased sharply, the business entertainment has decreased, and the two core logics of "price increase" and "high-end substitution" of the performance increment of wine guide enterprises have been blocked.
(2) As a reservoir for wine companies, distributors can give wine companies a bottom line in the early stage of the market downturn, but they may accelerate the backlash in the later stage, resulting in a continuous decline in the performance of wine companies.
Judging from the recent signs that no one cares about the bidding of the sugar and wine fair, the plummeting of Moutai, and the continuous decline in performance growth, this logic may be gradually being realized.
And the collapse of Xiaomi is essentially caused by the lack of core competitiveness.
Regarding the core logic of new energy vehicles, Daoren said as early as May 21,
Under the wave of involution and clearing, the final fight of new energy vehicles is the scale effect and technical advantages.
Either one of them is ahead and it is not a problem to survive.
If you have both, you will be the king of the next era.
So under this core logic, what are Xiaomi's core advantages?
In terms of scale advantage, it is not the top;
In terms of technical advantages, whether it is the endurance power system or intelligent driving, it is the second-tier level.
Could it be the shape of the Porsche Paramela "carved out of one mold"?
Including the previous thunderstorm ideals, it's the same problem!
In the early days, with the unique innovation of "extended range + refrigerator color TV sofa", it can kill all sides in the automobile market.
But this kind of thing with little technical content, once popularized by the market, it also means the collapse of the ideal "moat".
Many people blame the ideal thunderstorm on the Waterloo of the pure electric mega,
But these people completely fail to see the "moat" of the dying ideals day by day.
A big cycle, a core competitiveness,
From industry to individual stocks, it is the simplest set of investment frameworks.
Don't underestimate this framework, many retail investors, and even many so-called professionals, don't understand it after playing double.
The cycle is definitely not to take out the K-line, carve the boat for the sword, pat the chest and say:
A share bull and bear 7 years of reincarnation! Now is the bottom of the bear market! (In 22 years, many so-called investment big Vs have been talking)
If you believe it, you will copy the bottom in 22 years, and you will probably die without knowing how to die.
The core competitiveness is not how one or one product is.
It is the scientific and technological advantages and cost advantages of the entire company behind this product that crush peers.
Behind all this, there is the core logic and fundamentals to support!
02
On Thursday, Daoren talked about the investment opportunities of U.S. bonds.
On Friday, Daoren launched the U.S. bond portfolio for the first time - Daoren U.S. bond portfolio
Judging from the comment area, one of the things that everyone is most worried about is the exchange rate risk.
Because when we buy U.S. bond funds, we first have to convert RMB into US dollars.
When it is redeemed in the future, the dollar will be exchanged for the people.
The US dollar has more room to cut interest rates than the RMB, and if the US and the United States appreciate more after the interest rate cut, won't they be able to make much money at that time?
On this point, you don't really have to worry:
On the one hand, most of the U.S. bond funds selected by the Taoist people have foreign exchange locks.
Foreign exchange locking, as the name suggests, is to lock in the exchange rate, and the fund manager will hold a certain number of foreign exchange options (or forwards) to hedge exchange rate risk.
If it weren't for the occurrence of a super black swan, it would generally not have much impact.
On the other hand, the state of our economy does not allow the renminbi to appreciate too much
The troika that drives the economy: investment (real estate), consumption, and exports
After the real estate enters the downward cycle, it is difficult to get up in the short term, and it is good not to drag down the economy after three years;
Due to the excessively large gap between the rich and the poor and the excessively high leverage ratio of residents, it is difficult for consumption to carry the banner of economic growth.
Then all that's left is exports.
Judging from the economic data in the first five months of this year, more than half of the core driving force of economic growth is contributed by exports.
And whether the export is strong or not, the core looks at two points:
(1) Whether the products we produce are competitive or not, which is not false to any of us as the "king of volumes".
(2) Our renminbi cannot appreciate too much, after all, the appreciation of the renminbi is not conducive to exports, which is learned in junior high school textbooks.
In March this year, Yang Ma also said:
In the future, the exchange rate control will be relaxed to prevent the RMB from appreciating too much, so as to make exports profitable.
Finally, share the operation record of Friday:
1. Portfolio operation
Launched U.S. bond portfolio - Golden Daoren U.S. bond portfolio
A total of 100 funds, 5 of which were bought this time.
The specific steps of following the car are very clear in the departure text of the Taoist's notes, the backup number.
Other operations, not yet.
As we enter July, two things are very important:
(1) The second quarter reports of major enterprises and our second-quarter economic data will be released one after another
(2) The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from July 15th to July 18th
There is news later, and the Taoist will share it with you as soon as possible.