In the A-share market, weekends often become a period of intensive news release, and investors have long been accustomed to looking for good news after the market, but they encounter the reality of bad news at the opening. After yesterday's trading, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the central bank and other departments spoke out one after another, conveying important information on the future development of the A-share market.
For the stock market trend in the first half of the year, although the overall index did not fluctuate much, the performance of individual stocks was uneven, and there were large differences in retail investors' perception of the market. At this moment, the joint voice of multiple departments is undoubtedly another stabilization of market sentiment. So, what do these bombshell signals mean yesterday? How should we view the next trend of the A-share market?
01 The latest statement of the China Securities Regulatory Commission that a package of measures for capital market reform may be introduced
Yesterday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (hereinafter referred to as the "CSRC") once again sent a strong signal, indicating that the A-share market will usher in a package of capital market reform measures. These measures will not only address the outstanding problems existing in the current market, but also reflect the CSRC's determination to strictly supervise, maintain the order of the "three publics" market, and widely absorb market opinions.
1. Highlight the trend of strict supervision
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has made it clear that it will focus on promoting the "high cost" of violations of laws and regulations, and greatly strengthen the three-dimensional accountability of administrative, criminal and civil matters. The introduction of this measure will undoubtedly intensify the crackdown on violations of laws and regulations in the market and safeguard market order and the interests of investors. In the current A-share market, financial fraud, insider trading and other violations of laws and regulations have been repeatedly prohibited, which has seriously damaged the fairness of the market and the confidence of investors. Therefore, strengthening supervision and raising the cost of violating the law is a necessary means to maintain the healthy and stable development of the market.
Second, the China Securities Regulatory Commission once again emphasized the market order of the "three publics".
The so-called "three publics" are openness, fairness and justice. This is the basic principle of the securities market, and it is also an important cornerstone for protecting the interests of investors and maintaining market order. However, in practice, there are still many problems in the fairness of the A-share market. For example, some listed companies use information advantages to conduct insider trading, or manipulate stock prices for personal gain. These actions seriously undermine the fairness of the market and harm the interests of investors. Therefore, the China Securities Regulatory Commission's proposal to strengthen the construction of the "three publics" market order is not only a reaffirmation of market rules, but also an improvement and enhancement of the market environment.
Third, the China Securities Regulatory Commission also put forward the idea of "opening the door to carry out reform".
This means that in the process of promoting the reform of the capital market, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will extensively listen to and carefully study the opinions and suggestions of various parties. The introduction of this measure reflects the CSRC's respect and attention to market participants, and also shows the CSRC's openness and inclusiveness to change. In the process of change, widely absorbing market opinions will help to better identify and solve problems, and promote the in-depth development of reform. At the same time, it also provides investors with more opportunities to participate and express themselves, which helps to enhance the transparency and fairness of the market.
From the latest statement of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, we can see some positive signals. On the one hand, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has a clear understanding of the current market problems and has begun to solve them. This reflects the CSRC's sense of responsibility and mission for the stable development of the market. On the other hand, the package of reform measures proposed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission will address the outstanding problems existing in the market in a targeted manner. This will help improve the market environment, improve market efficiency and enhance market attractiveness. Finally, the CSRC's emphasis on the "three publics" market order and the idea of "opening the door to carry out reforms" will help improve the fairness and impartiality of the market and enhance the stability and sustainable development of the market.
02 The signal released by the joint statement of the seven departments
After yesterday's market, seven major departments - the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Central Bank, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Financial Authority, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and related institutions of technology stocks, have spoken out, and this series of measures has undoubtedly released multiple signals to the market. These signals are not only related to the trend of the financial market, but also indicate the country's in-depth thinking and strategic layout for the future development of science and technology finance.
1. The emphasis of various departments on the theme of "science and technology finance" highlights the important position of science and technology in the current economic development.
This emphasis is not only to put "technology" before "finance" in the arrangement of words, but also to provide a deep understanding and clear guidance for the real economy of financial services, especially the technology industry. As the bloodline of the modern economy, the transformation of the service objects of finance will undoubtedly lead to the optimization and upgrading of the entire economic structure.
Second, it is of far-reaching strategic significance for multiple departments to jointly speak out and guide financial capital to invest in early-stage, small-scale, long-term and hard science and technology fields.
Investing early and investing small means that in terms of capital allocation, more attention will be paid to the innovation ability and long-term value of enterprises, rather than short-term profitability and market valuation. This will help break the over-reliance of traditional financial markets on blue-chip technology companies, and encourage more innovative SMEs with market potential to obtain capital support.
Third, long-term investment reflects the importance of patient capital.
In the field of science and technology, many innovative achievements need to be accumulated and precipitated for a long time, and only capital with a long-term investment vision can truly grow together with technology enterprises and maximize value. This long-term investment philosophy will help stabilize market expectations, reduce market volatility, and create a favorable environment for the steady development of technology companies.
Fourth, investing in hard science and technology directly points to the core areas of national scientific and technological development.
In the context of increasingly fierce global scientific and technological competition, solving the problem of "stuck neck" of key technologies has become an urgent need for national development. The joint guidance of multiple departments to invest financial capital in the field of hard science and technology will not only help enhance the country's scientific and technological strength, but also promote the digital transformation and intelligent upgrading of the entire economy and society.
For the current stock market, the joint statement of various departments is undoubtedly a shot in the arm. Recently, the stock market has been relatively weak, with frequent problems such as falling indices, weak exchange rate market performance, and increased liquidity pressures in the market. The emergence of these problems is not only due to the complex and changeable economic environment at home and abroad, but also to the needs of the market itself. However, in the context of the active statements and joint guidance of various departments, we have reason to believe that the stock market will gradually come out of the bottom and usher in new development opportunities.
As the core regulator of the financial market, the central bank's statement is of great significance. The central bank said that it will pay more attention to counter-cyclical adjustment, which means that monetary policy tools such as RRR and interest rate cuts will be adopted when necessary to stabilize market liquidity and ease market pressure. This statement undoubtedly injected confidence into the market and provided a strong guarantee for the steady development of the stock market.
In addition, the attention of various departments to quantitative trading and refinancing is also worth pondering. As an important trading method in the modern financial market, quantitative trading has both advantages and disadvantages. While promoting the efficient operation of the market, it may also bring problems such as increased market volatility and risk accumulation. Therefore, while encouraging the development of quantitative trading, it is also necessary to strengthen supervision and risk prevention. As an important system of the capital market, refinancing plays a positive role in improving market liquidity and optimizing resource allocation. However, in practice, it is also necessary to guard against risks and protect the interests of investors.
03 How will the A-share market go next week?
The trend of the A-share market next week is undoubtedly the most concerned issue for market participants. After considering a number of factors, I believe that we can analyze and forecast from the following aspects.
1. From the policy level, many departments have spoken out recently, which has undoubtedly brought a certain positive impact to the market.
These voices not only point out some problems in the current market, but also respond to market concerns, retaining a trace of suspense and hope for future market trends. This positive signal at the policy level has undoubtedly brought a certain degree of confidence to investors and laid the foundation for the stability and development of the market.
Second, the technical analysis
From a technical analysis point of view, the market is currently in a relatively complex correction phase. While the overall weekly decline is not over, the bottom of the daily space seems to be pregnant with a short-term rally. In order to grasp the market dynamics more accurately, we may wish to use the entanglement theory to analyze the trend of this period in depth.
Let's review the market action since 3174 points. The correction at this stage shows a clear downward trend, and through the perspective of entanglement, we can clearly see the two-pivot pattern formed during the adjustment process. The construction of these two pivots reflects the struggle and balance of the market in the process of decline. However, it is worth noting that yesterday's market performance showed that segment C and segment B did not form a divergence, that is, segment C was stronger than segment B, which increased the uncertainty and risk of the market to a certain extent.
In the face of this weak performance, investors need to be mentally prepared that the market may continue to build a third shock center. This expectation is not groundless, but based on in-depth analysis and judgment of market trends. In entanglement theory, the formation of multiple pivots often means that the market needs more time and space to find a new equilibrium. Therefore, we have reason to believe that in the coming period, the market may continue to fluctuate to the downside until a three-pivot divergence situation is formed.
So, what does this "three pivots" situation mean for the market? First of all, technically speaking, divergence is an important signal of a shift in market trends. When multiple centers are formed, if the last center falls less than the previous one, then this constitutes a divergence. This divergence is often a sign of an imminent reversal in the market. For investors, this means that the market may see a rebound after a period of decline.
However, we also need to be aware that the direction of the market is not entirely determined by technical analysis. A variety of factors such as the macroeconomic situation, policy environment, and international situation may have an impact on the market. Therefore, while paying attention to the technical trend, we also need to pay close attention to the market dynamics and related information in order to grasp the market trend more comprehensively.
On the other hand, although the market rebounded yesterday, with a turnover of 705.8 billion, an improvement from the previous day, the overall market technical form has not yet fully stabilized. The MACD indicator is still in the dead cross range of the weak zone, and the 10-day line has also formed a certain suppression downward. This means that there is still a possibility that the market will continue to repeat in the short term, and investors need to remain cautious and avoid blindly chasing up.
However, in the medium to long term, I think the market still has a lot of upside potential. On the one hand, from a valuation perspective, the overall valuation of the current A-share market is at a low level, and it has high investment value compared with historical data. On the other hand, from the perspective of industries and sectors, some industries with growth potential, such as science and technology, new energy, etc., still have great room and potential for development. High-quality enterprises in these industries are expected to become the main driving force for the future market rise.
For specific sectors and individual stocks, I believe investors should choose according to their own risk appetite and investment objectives. In industries with greater growth potential such as science and technology and new energy, we can pay attention to some high-quality enterprises with core competitiveness and stable performance. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to diversification and reduce the risks brought by a single stock or industry.
In addition, as an important part of the market, the securities sector has been affected by some negative factors recently, but it still has great investment value as a whole. In the long run, as an important participant in the capital market, the performance and market value of the securities industry will be improved with the continuous development and growth of the market. As a result, the securities sector remains an area of interest for long-term investors.
Announcement Statement:
All information and expressions in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice and trading basis, and are for reference only! The subject matter involved is not a recommendation and is only for communication. I do not bear any responsibility for the losses incurred, and investors need to be responsible for their own investment behavior.