In 2023, the sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China will be close to 9.5 million units, with a penetration rate of 31.5%, and the export of new energy vehicles will be 1.203 million units, a year-on-year increase of 77.6%, both hitting record highs.
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The core competitiveness of the lithium battery industry chain
The new "National Nine Articles" proposes to establish a market ecology that cultivates long-term investment, encourages rational investment, value investment, and long-term investment, and builds a policy system that supports "long-term money and long-term investment".
Throughout the lithium battery industry chain, it involves many links, including lithium batteries, cathode lithium iron phosphate, cathode ternary materials, separators, electrolytes, anode materials, copper and aluminum foils, various auxiliary materials, etc. From the perspective of competitiveness, different links rely on different endowments, some rely on manufacturing level, some rely on resource capacity, some rely on equipment renewal, and some emphasize technological innovation.
Electrochemical system
The iterative upgrading of battery chemical material system is the core of improving battery performance. The iteration of the material system includes the iteration of different material systems, such as the cathode material from lithium iron phosphate to ternary and sodium ion cathode, etc., and the iteration of the same material system itself, such as the ternary material from 333 to 523 and then to 811, and the future high-nickel 9 series. The research and development of the material system determines the performance of the battery, such as energy density, fast charging performance, cycle life, and high and low temperature performance. In terms of system grouping, high-energy cells combined with high-efficiency grouping technology improve the volume utilization rate of battery pack (CTP) and body chassis (CTC).
The production process is made with precision
Automation and intelligence improve product consistency by improving production efficiency and yield. The manufacturing process of lithium-ion battery system needs to go through three major processes: battery cell, module and pack, and the final input-output ratio of the product is determined by the product of the yield of each process. Controlling the defective rate of the original PPM level (1 in a million) to the PPB level (1 part per billion) is equivalent to less than 1 in 10 million electric vehicles with battery defects, and the proportion of gasoline vehicles catching fire is about 1 in 10,000.
According to Zeng Yuqun, founder, chairman and general manager of CATL, electric vehicles not only perform better in terms of exhaust emissions, but also in terms of safety performance. In GW-level large-scale storage projects, a single station may be equipped with millions of battery cells, which has more stringent requirements for product consistency and higher requirements for the automation degree of battery cell production lines.
electrolyte
The price volatility of electrolyte has intensified, showing a strong cyclicality. Since 2020, the electrolyte industry has been significantly cyclical. In 2021, the market demand for new energy vehicles will grow rapidly, and due to the long expansion cycle of some upstream links and the phased shortage of materials, the electrolyte will usher in an all-round rise. In the first half of 2022, the prices of electrolyte and raw materials fluctuated violently, the industrial chain continued to move closer to the leader, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic market continued, and the upstream and downstream game sentiment continued to intensify. As the core raw material of electrolyte, the price change of lithium hexafluorophosphate greatly affects the profitability of the electrolyte industry, and the profitability stability of electrolyte enterprises is challenged in the case of sharp fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices.
The integrated layout of the faucet, the cost advantage highlights the ability to resist cyclicals. With the vertical integration layout of "basic chemical materials, lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte", Tianci Materials, a leading electrolyte company, has opened up the whole industrial chain, and at the same time produced liquid hexafluorine, which has greatly improved its cost competitiveness while building technical barriers. Benefiting from this, although the electrolyte industry is generally under pressure at the bottom of the profit cycle due to factors such as price fluctuations of upstream materials, intensified competition in the same industry, and reduced operating rates due to insufficient downstream demand since 2023, the company continues to maintain a high self-supply ratio of core raw materials with its integrated layout, and its profitability is relatively less affected by industry price fluctuations.
negative electrode
The production cycle of artificial graphite anode is longer, and there are more processes, which basically have to go through six major processes and several small processes such as raw material pretreatment, granulation, roasting, high-temperature graphitization, carbonization and finished product processing, and the processes required for products with different characteristics are different, such as graphitization is the core process of artificial anode materials, and its cost is also the highest, while granulation, roasting and carbonization are non-essential processes. In the context of relatively complex production processes, on the one hand, each process requires a certain amount of energy consumption, especially like graphitization and carbonization, which consumes relatively high electricity, which is also the main component of the cost of anode materials, and the control of energy consumption by different enterprises can bring certain cost differences; On the other hand, the diversification of processes also brings the richness and differentiation of products, improves the added value of anode materials, and enables some enterprises to obtain excess profits. Especially looking forward to the future, there is still room for improvement and progress in the gram capacity, compaction density, cycle life and other aspects of anode materials, and related products will continue to be iteratively updated and bring considerable value returns.
Of course, in the long run, cost reduction is still the main theme of the long-term development of anode materials, and it also constitutes the core competitiveness of anode material enterprises.
From the perspective of cost reduction methods, enterprises have abundant choices and can adopt a variety of methods, such as (1) integrated production, that is, all processes of anode material production are carried out independently, especially the graphitization process, reducing the proportion of outsourcing and increasing gross profit retention; (2) Improve graphitization production efficiency and reduce unit power consumption by replacing crucible furnaces with box furnaces and increasing the filling capacity of graphitization furnaces; (3) Transform carbonization equipment and adopt continuous feeding production to reduce heat loss; (4) Select the origin of raw materials or low electricity price base to lay out production capacity, reduce freight and electricity costs, etc. In addition, in the core graphitization link, we believe that the power transmission curve also constitutes the core competitiveness of the enterprise, and it is difficult to replicate in the short term, especially for enterprises with a certain operation in carbon production, it will be more advantageous. At the enterprise level, energy consumption, especially electricity consumption (integration level, unit power consumption, electricity price) will become an important indicator to measure the competitiveness of enterprises.
2
New technology directions
The progress of the continental solid-state battery exceeded expectations, and the semi-solid-state took the lead in accelerating the loading. Solid-state batteries have obvious advantages over traditional liquid batteries in terms of energy density and safety, and are considered to be one of the most promising next-generation battery technologies. However, due to the immaturity of the technology and the high cost, the industry generally believes that the time node for commercial application is far away in 2030. However, since 2022, domestic enterprises have taken the semi-solid solution as the middle route for the transition, and took the lead in realizing the industrialization stage of loading applications. With the increase in installed models and the expansion of the application scale of semi-solid-state batteries, the economy is expected to improve, driving the synchronous development of the industrial chain, or accelerating the evolution process to the final form of all-solid-state batteries.
The whole industry chain has made great efforts to layout, and the industrialization trend of solid-state batteries has been determined. International automakers, including Toyota, Nissan, BMW, and Ford, plan to launch electric models equipped with all-solid-state batteries in 2025~2030, and cooperate with battery companies to accelerate the implementation of solid-state batteries. Domestic: Weilan New Energy's shareholders include NIO, Geely, Huawei, Xiaomi, etc.; Qingtao Energy received investment from SAIC, BAIC and GAC; Changan Automobile signed a memorandum of cooperation with Ganfeng Lithium. Overseas: Solid Power receives investment from BMW, Ford and Hyundai; The Quantum Scape is funded by Volkswagen.
On the battery side, a number of leading companies such as CATL and BYD in China, LG, Samsung, and SK On have relevant layouts in technology research and development and patent reserves. For example, Dangsheng Technology disclosed in its annual report that the supply share of ultra-high nickel products in solid-state battery customers such as Huineng, Qingtao, Weilan New Energy, and Ganfeng Lithium Battery has increased significantly, and has been successfully used in solid-state models of global first-tier car companies such as SAIC and Vietnam's VinFast. With the cooperation of car companies, battery companies and material companies, the development trend of solid-state batteries has been determined, and the industrialization process is also expected to accelerate.
The safety and energy density requirements of aviation lithium batteries are improving, and the application prospects of solid-state batteries in the low-altitude economy are promising. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently released the "Implementation Plan for the Innovative Application of General Aviation Equipment (2024-2030)", which gives a clear development goal for the performance of aviation lithium batteries: to promote the mass production of 400Wh/kg aviation lithium battery products and realize the application verification of 500Wh/kg aviation lithium battery products.
In addition, eVTOL also puts forward more stringent requirements for the charging rate and safety of the battery. With an energy density of 285Wh/kg, which is close to the upper limit of liquid batteries, (semi-)solid-state batteries may be the closest battery technology to eVTOL needs. From the perspective of the layout of industrial chain companies, the primary target application scenario of CATL condensed matter batteries is civil electric manned aircraft; EHang has invested in Xinshi, a lithium-metal solid-state battery technology company, to lay out the eVTOL solid-state battery supply chain. Under the support of low-altitude economic policies and the requirements of industry technology development, eVTOL is expected to leverage a broader application space for solid-state batteries.
In November 2023, Weilan New Energy achieved an installed capacity of 0.41GWh, marking the industrialization of semi-solid-state batteries in the economic sense in 2023; In April 2024, the installed penetration rate of semi-solid-state batteries in China reached 1.0%, showing a vigorous development trend. Based on the research and judgment of solid-state battery technology route and cost reduction path, EV Tank predicts that by 2030, the global solid-state battery shipment will reach 614.1GWh, and the penetration rate in the overall lithium battery is expected to be about 10%, and its market size will exceed 250 billion yuan.
The battery material system has been comprehensively optimized, and the electrolyte has opened up a new track. Electrolyte is the key innovation point of solid-state batteries, and the three major technical routes have their own advantages and disadvantages: sulfide ion conductivity is the highest, and the long-term development potential is large, but the stability is poor and the cost is high; The oxide conductivity is moderate and stable, and the R&D verification progress is fast. The conductivity of polymers is limited, but the application difficulty is small, and it is a short-term choice for semi-solid solutions.
In the long run, new cathode materials such as lithium metal anode and lithium nickel manganese oxide and lithium-rich manganese base have good prospects. Domestic and foreign companies actively deploy and grasp new technology opportunities. At present, there are many enterprises involved in solid-state batteries at home and abroad, and car companies, R&D institutions, battery companies including many start-ups, and midstream material companies have invested in new technology R&D layout. The innovation of process technology and the change of material system have brought new opportunities to the whole industry chain. In terms of links, domestic independent brands and new power car companies are at the forefront of semi-solid loading, the overall capacity planning of supporting battery factories has entered the order of 100GWh, the development and mass production progress of electrolyte materials is relatively lagging behind, and the high-nickel ternary cathode has mature mass production capacity in China, while the scale of silicon-based anode is still small to be expanded.
Selected report source: Yinchuang Think Tank
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