In 2024, the number of applicants for the college entrance examination will reach 13.42 million, a record high, and it is also the first time to break through the 13 million mark. The author has refuted this data many times, and some netizens have asked the author to come up with more specific data to explain, indeed, the author can't come up with more accurate data to refute him, but judging from the type statistics of the number of applicants for the college entrance examination, it is obvious that this 4.12 million is a seriously false data.
Let's take a look at a simple data first, the basic situation of the development and development of education in 2023 announced by the Ministry of Education lists the national general undergraduate enrollment of 4.7816 million, vocational undergraduate enrollment of 89,900, and higher vocational (junior college) enrollment of 5.5507 million in the year, this data does not include adult undergraduate and online undergraduate students, the number of adult undergraduate students is 4.4549 million, and the online undergraduate enrollment is 1.6342 million. So from the above-mentioned general undergraduate enrollment of 10.4222 million, if you add this repeat student of 4.12 million, then the number of applicants for the college entrance examination in 2023 will be at least 14.5422 million, and the actual number of applicants in 2023 is only 12.91 million, where does the gap of more than 1.63 million people come from?
What groups are included in the number of admissions and applicants for the college entrance examination? The author takes the situation in Guizhou in 2023 as an example to give a detailed explanation, because Guizhou has the most complete data.
Let's first take a look at the admission data statistics of Guizhou Province in 2023. In 2023, 2,183 colleges and universities across the country will admit 419,200 people in Guizhou. Among them, 267,900 students were admitted to general arts and sciences, 5,700 were admitted to sports, 19,200 were admitted to arts, and 126,300 were admitted to higher vocational classification examinations.
What are the number of people admitted to the Higher Vocational Classification Examination? Judging from the data published by the Guizhou Education Examination Institute, this data contains 8 aspects of admission information, 48,100 general high school graduates, 58,600 secondary vocational graduates, 12,600 3+3 middle and higher vocational through the segmented system, 2,600 five-year consistent system transcription, 1,700 secondary and higher vocational coordinated development transcription, 270 retired soldiers, 275 migrant workers, in addition to laid-off unemployed people, high-quality farmers, enterprise employees, 2,300 people were admitted to four categories of personnel, including grassroots agricultural technicians.
From the above data, we can't judge the number of repeat students, because the number of general high school graduates includes fresh and previous high school graduates, but we can get a specific data on the number of secondary vocational graduates, in the above 8 categories of admission numbers, the number of secondary vocational graduates includes secondary vocational graduates, 3+3 secondary and higher vocational through the segmented system transcription, secondary and higher vocational coordinated development transcription, five-year consistent transcription, etc., all belong to the group of secondary vocational graduates and even junior high school graduates. The number of admissions in this group has reached 75,500, accounting for 60% of the total number of admissions for the higher vocational classification examination and 18% of the total number of admissions in the 2023 college entrance examination. From this data, we can find that the scale of secondary vocational graduates participating in the college entrance examination is not low.
Then, in order to obtain the real repeat student data, it is necessary to consider the number of fresh high school graduates and secondary vocational graduates in the number of college entrance examination applicants, the former minus the current high school and secondary vocational graduates, in order to obtain the number of repeat students with a general deviation that is not too large, if you look at the data from Guizhou, the number of repeat students also includes a small number of junior high school graduates, migrant workers, and other four types of personnel.
Where does the number of new high school graduates come from? Because the number of high school graduates in that year is likely to include repeat students, but we will not be too wrong to obtain the scale of high school graduates from the earlier "junior high" enrollment data, now let's take a look at the estimated data of the scale of repeat students in Guizhou in 2023.
In 2023, the number of applicants for the college entrance examination in Guizhou Province will be 491,000, excluding the number of secondary vocational and general high school classified enrollment, the actual number of students taking the college entrance examination is only 341,000, and the enrollment plan of Guizhou Province that year will reach 403,000, of which 178,000 are undergraduate programs. The students who will take the college entrance examination in 2023 will be the main students who graduated from junior high school in 2020, and the enrollment plan of Guizhou general high school announced on the official website of the Ministry of Education in 2020 will be 331,300 and 137,000 will be enrolled in secondary vocational schools. According to data, among the number of applicants for the classification examination in Guizhou in 2023, there are 61,400 general high school students and 69,100 secondary vocational candidates. If we subtract the total number of applicants from the number of students in the "junior high school" enrollment plan of the year, the number of secondary vocational candidates who apply for the classified examination, and ignore the number of secondary vocational candidates who sign up for the summer college entrance examination and other data, then the number of repeaters in the college entrance examination in Guizhou in 2023 will be about 90,000, accounting for 18.45%.
How accurate is this projection? For example, in 2021, the number of applicants for the college entrance examination in Guizhou will be 466,700, of which 387,400 will apply for the national unified examination, 79,200 will be the number of secondary vocational graduates who apply for classified enrollment, 317,000 will be fresh graduates, and 70,400 will be former students, so the proportion of former students will be 15.1%. In 2018, the number of applicants was 441,700, including 380,100 applicants for the unified examination, 49,900 candidates for secondary vocational examinations, 313,800 fresh graduates, 66,400 former students, and 15.03% of former students.
All the above data are from the official website of the Ministry of Education and the Guizhou Education Examination Institute, from which we can find that although Guizhou has not released the data of previous students in 2023, our estimated data and proportion are very close to the data released in previous years.
At this point, let's go back and look at the data of repeaters posted on the Internet. The number of applicants for the college entrance examination in 2024 will be 13.42 million, minus the number of students who will be "newly raised" in 2021 9.0495 million, and only 4.37 million will be left, and many of the so-called repeat students are estimated to be taken from this data, and fundamentally ignore the large number of secondary vocational students participating in the spring college entrance examination and summer college entrance examination, if we calculate according to the minimum 15% of secondary vocational students participating in the college entrance examination, then the number of repeat students is only about 2.36 million at most; If the proportion of secondary vocational students is calculated at 20%, the maximum number of repeat students is only about 1.69 million. This data is far lower than the scale of repeaters on the Internet, as for which data you believe, you can think for yourself.