Five key points to disassemble the finals: the Mavericks face a difficult alignment problem How the Green Army defends Eastern Europe

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2024-06-04 13:21Posted on the official account of the US Live Bar

The Celtics, who have been smooth sailing, and the Mavericks, who have advanced all the way, when these two teams meet in the finals to usher in the peak showdown, which team can become the new king?

In terms of playoff experience, the team's core roster cooperation time, etc., the Celtics are undoubtedly the dominant side. In terms of alignment, the Celtics, who advocate the five foreigners, will give the Mavericks a difficult problem. In terms of star quality, the Maverick duo has the upper hand, especially when it comes to critical moments, which is the biggest confidence for the Mavericks to compete for the championship.

The Celtics had a matchup problem

The Mavericks drafted Lively and traded for Gafford in the mid-term to transform into a defensive powerhouse that could maintain defensive intensity under the basket for 48 minutes. Along the way in the playoffs, the core defensive principle adhered to by the Mavericks is to position the center against non-space points (Mann in the first round, Keady in the second round, McDaniels in the West), shoot three-pointers from non-space points, give priority to protecting the basket, and try to help protect Eastern Europe behind them.

The Mavericks lowered their opponents' shooting percentage to 51.1 percent, finishing third in the playoffs. When Gafford defends the basket, opponents shoot just 45.2 percent from the field, ranking first among 17 players who have defended at least 50 baskets. Lively's two figures were 49.3% and No. 3.

The defensive logic of the Mavericks in the Finals will be severely tested, and the Celtics have no non-space points available. In the regular season, the Celtics had eight players who averaged more than 1.5 three-point shots per game, with Brown (35.4%) having the lowest crosshairs. The Celtics played the Warriors, and Kerr ingeniously tried to use Green to empty Brown, treating Brown as a non-space point, and as a result, Brown exploded. In the playoffs, the Celtics were the most inaccurate Tatum (29%), but Tatum's three-point crosshairs in the regular season were 37.6%, and the Mavericks definitely didn't dare to let go.

In the past, Holiday and White were points that could be put to light, but in this season's playoffs, Holiday shot 15-of-31 from three-point range, aiming 48.4% of his target. White shot 36-of-76 from the field and was 47.4 percent from the crosshairs. The accuracy of the two receivers and shots is higher than that of pure shooter Pritchard, and it seems that the Mavericks can only put Horford, but Horford has already shot 6 of 13 and 7 of 12 three-point shots in a single game in the playoffs. Which side will the randomness of the three-point shooting be on this time?

The Celtics are experienced when it comes to moving opposing centers off the basket. Comparing the frequency of Adebayo, Mobley, and Myles Turner in the regular season and playoffs, the Celtics' five-out strategy clearly weakened the trio's basket threat, and they couldn't be heavily present under the basket.

When the Celtics move centers off the basket through complex movement and cover, they can create quality under-the-basket shots, which is how the 63.2% shooting percentage in the box in the playoffs came about, with Brown shooting 65.2% from the box, ranking first among 16 players who have taken at least 100 shots from the box.

It is foreseeable that the Mavericks will let Washington and Jones Jr. accept the heavy responsibility of opposing Tatum and Brown, while the Celtics will stick to the strategy of the first three rounds, try to transfer Gafford and Lively from the basket, and help Tatum, Brown and even Holiday create opportunities to attack Doncic and Irving. How will Kidd respond?

How did the Celts defend themselves against Eastern Europe?

No player since "Big Shark" O'Neal in 2000 has won a championship that season while winning the scoring title, and Doncic is eager to break the spell. Because of knee and ankle injuries, Doncic's overall production and efficiency in the playoffs have declined, but Doncic's state has recovered significantly in the Western Conference Finals, with an average of 32.4 points per game, 8.2 assists per game, and a true shooting rate of more than 62% to achieve high productivity and efficiency, limiting Doncic will be the Celtics' number one task.

Considering that Doncic has shot 221 three-pointers this season, No. 1 in the league, and the Western Conference finals are bursting with a 45% three-point crosshair, the Celtics are unlikely to use a lot of retreat defense, and they are more likely to make a fuss about defensive alignment, using defensive switching to force Doncic to play difficult singles, strong side help defense, or early pinch to force Doncic to play the ball and let the Mavericks role players end the offense.

The Celtics have enough defensive resources to match Doncic, and the initial matchup is likely to be one of Holiday and Brown. The Celtics will have Horford (or a healthy Porzingis) defend one of Washington, Jones Jr., and the rest to either Holiday or Brown, with White against Irving and Tatum against Gafford (or Lively).

There are several benefits to this conventional defensive line of thought –

Tatum defends the center, dismantling Doncic (or Irving) and the center, Tatum can directly switch defenses, and his height, arm span, and footsteps will not fall behind in the face of Eastern European combinations.

If Doncic and Irving try to name the Celtics center, the two will inevitably have to find Washington and Jones Jr. to block and dismantle, at this time, the Mavericks center will block the space near the basket, and the difficulty of attacking the basket in Eastern Europe will increase, and the Mavericks' scoring efficiency in the restricted area may decrease.

If Doncic initiates the Eastern European block, Holiday vs. Irving, and Brown vs. Doncic, Holiday and Brown can switch defenses directly. The same goes for Irving's start of the Eastern European block.

Of course, this defensive line of thinking is not unassailable. When Washington and Jones Jr. serve as coverers, they both have a certain ability to receive and handle the ball and shoot three-point shooting from outside. And if Doncic and Irving block and dismantle with Washington and Jones Jr. against the Celtics center, once the Celtics retreat, Eastern Europe's offensive means are diverse.

When White defends Irving and Doncic initiates the Eastern European pick-and-roll, Doncic can use his size to name White. White defended Doncic 11 shots in the regular season, and Doncic hit nine.

The Celtics also have a variety of alignment options, and at the end of the day, defending Eastern Europe depends not only on who is opposing Eastern Europe, but also on how other positions are arranged. Holiday has 10% of the time in the regular season against the center, and 9.6% in the playoffs, the Celtics may let Holiday play against the center and Tatum against Jones Jr., reducing Tatum's defensive consumption and playing more of a defensive role.

The Celtics struggled to limit Doncic's play, but the Celtics had experience limiting Irving, who scored 42 points on 43 shots and made only two free throws in the regular season against Holiday and White. Whether Irving can break through the Celtics' defense will directly affect the prospects of the Mavericks, as evidenced by the comparison of the difficulty of the Mavericks' promotion process in the second round and the Western Conference finals. In the second round, Irving averaged 15.7 points per game, and the Mavericks struggled to advance. Irving averaged 27 points per game in the Western Conference, and the Mavericks' road to promotion was smoother.

Offensive rebounds

Offensive rebounding scramble will be one of the X-factors of the series. On the surface, the Celtics ranked second in the playoffs with a defensive rebounding rate of 77%, and they averaged only 8.3 points per game on the second offense, the least in the playoffs in the past seven years. But in fact, it is quite difficult for the Celtics to limit the Mavericks' offensive rebounding and secondary offense this round.

First of all, the Lone Ranger is good at scrambling. The Mavericks had a 31% rebounding rate in the frontcourt, the fourth-highest in the playoffs, and ranked fourth in scoring 13.4 points per game on secondary offense.

Second, the Celtics' defensive alignment can lead to missed rebounds. If Tatum or Holiday plays against the Mavericks center, Doncic or Irving forcibly launches a block with the No. 5 position and forces a switch defense, even if the Eastern European single misses, Levery and Gafford have the opportunity to use their height advantage and athleticism to compete for offensive rebounds.

Third, the Celtics have a long-standing problem of losing rebounds, especially when it matters most. The stats show that the Celtics have given opponents an offensive rebounding rate of 33.6% in key moments, which is much higher than the usual 27.4%.

In turn, the Mavericks also have to watch out for the Celtics' offensive rebounding scramble and secondary offense, both of which are above the Mavericks, especially when the Celtics move the Mavericks center away from the basket. Whether the Mavericks can recover rebounds in the backcourt directly affects the frequency of their defensive counterattacks.

Mavericks role players with a three-point in the corner

Washington and Jones Jr. will be non-space spots in the eyes of the Celtics in this series, even if their projection performance in the first three rounds has bright spots. The responsiveness of both of them, including Josh Green, Hardy, and Kleber, is crucial.

The Mavericks with Doncic are the best team at creating corner three-point opportunities, Doncic leads the league with 318 passes to the bottom corner all season, and the Mavericks have made the most three-point shots in the league this season and shot 40.4 percent from the corner. The Mavericks made 34 percent of their three-point shots from the corner, and Washington made 28 three-pointers from the bottom corner in the playoffs, a 41.2 percent crosshair, compared to Bowen's 33 in 2007. Jones Jr. hit 17 shots, with a target of 45.9%.

The Celtics are the best team at blocking corner-based three-pointers, shooting just 18 percent of their three-pointers in the playoffs and just 21 percent during the regular season. In terms of limiting opponents' corner three-point crosshairs, the Celtics had a 35.2 percent statistic in the regular season and a further reduction to 23.5 percent in the playoffs. In the regular season, the Celtics suppressed the Mavericks' bottom corner three-pointers to 4-of-16.

X-factor Porzingis

From multiple angles, Porzingis' recovery from injury and on-court condition are the X-factors of this series, and his shooting, basket protection, and low-post offense have a huge impact on the situation.

This season, Porzingis is a member of the Celtics' strongest five, and when he is on the court with Tatum, Brown, Holiday and White, the Celtics have scored 120.3 points and conceded 109.4 points in 100 rounds, both offensively and defensively.

Porzingis has a 37.5% three-point crosshair, a high shooting point, a fast shot and a long range. The most important thing is that after experiencing the growth of the Wizards era and combining data analysis to upgrade the low-post offense, Porzingis has been a low-post killer this season, scoring 1.3 points per round of low-post offense, and Jokic and Embiid each have 1.14 points.

Porzingis protects the basket and shoots 52.1 percent from the field, compared to Gobert's 52 percent.

Series prospects

This is a series that is difficult to predict with past experience and cognition. The Celtics' all-shot and all-defensive lineup looks like the leader of the times, but the Mavericks' super evolution speed in the playoff process is impossible to ignore.

Historically, only five teams ranked No. 5 or lower in the regular season division have reached the Finals, and they have all faced the No. 1 seed in the other division, with only the 1995 Rockets (No. 6 in the West, beating the No. 1 Magic in the East) to win the title.

Historically, the Celtics are the dominant side, but who's to say the Mavericks can't replicate the Rockets saga?

Never underestimate the heart of a championship.

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